Deals··5 min read
The Banks Just Told Us the Freeze Is Over
Ruslan Averin on Q2 bank earnings: a trading boom and a 50%+ jump in investment banking say capital markets are reopening after a two-year freeze.
Deals
Deals
Trade entries, exits, and position updates — a transparent log of every significant move.
20 entries
Deals··5 min readVertex Buys Crinetics for $10B — A Clean Look at the Deal and the Spread
Ruslan Averin on Vertex's ~$10B all-cash buyout of Crinetics at $85/share — why the 99% pop, and how I read the merger-arb spread.
Deals··3 min readSpaceX Just Raised $75 Billion — The Real Story Is Which Door It Opened Behind It
SpaceX raised $75 billion in the largest IPO ever, more than double Saudi Aramco's record. Ruslan Averin argues the bigger trade isn't SPCX itself — it's the narrow, AI-led IPO window now opening for the next dominoes.
Deals··3 min readNuvei Is Buying Payoneer for $2.75B Cash — This Is the Kind of M&A I Actually Like
Payoneer jumped on June 15 after Nuvei agreed to take it private at $7.40 a share in an all-cash $2.75B deal. Analyst Ruslan Averin on why a clean cash buyout beats a rumor candle every time.
Deals··3 min readBig Banks Led Friday's Tape — And the Real Catalyst Is Two Weeks Away
Goldman, JPMorgan and Wells Fargo rallied on June 12 ahead of late-June stress tests — the gate that decides the next round of buybacks and dividend hikes.
Deals··6 min readGameStop's $56B eBay Bid Was Rejected. Ryan Cohen's Capital Play Isn't Over.
GameStop bid $56B ($125/share, 46% premium) to acquire eBay. eBay rejected it as 'neither credible nor attractive.' Here's why Cohen's capital allocation thesis is more interesting than the headline.
Deals··5 min readA San Francisco VC Just Paid $535 Million for a Piece of OnlyFans — And Called It 'Creator Economy'
Architect Capital paid $535M for 16% of OnlyFans at a $3.15B valuation — one month after the owner's death. The platform generates $7.2B in gross revenue. Here's why this deal is bigger than it looks.
Deals··8 min readAmazon AWS Q1 2026: 28% Growth, $37.6B Revenue, and the AI Infrastructure Thesis
AWS Q1 2026 revenue hit $37.59B, up 28% YoY — fastest growth in 15 quarters. Here's why I'm holding AMZN and what the capex bet actually means.
Deals··8 min readAmazon AWS Q1 2026: 28% Growth, $37.6B Revenue, and the AI Infrastructure Thesis
AWS posted $37.6B in Q1 2026 — its fastest growth in 15 quarters — as Amazon bets $44B in CapEx on AI supremacy. Here's why I hold AMZN.
Deals··8 minAlphabet Q1 2026: Search Holds, YouTube Accelerates, I Added at $168
Alphabet reported Q1 revenue of $90.2B (+12% YoY), YouTube $9.4B, Cloud $12.3B at 28% margin. I added to my position at $168 post-earnings. Here's the full.
Deals··8 minMeta Q1 2026: 42% Operating Margin and Why I Added at $580
Meta's Q1 2026: $42.3B revenue, 42% operating margin, AI Advantage+ doubling ad performance. I initiated a new position at $572 and added at $580. Full thesis.
Deals··8 minBerkshire's $334B Cash Pile: What Buffett Is Waiting For
Berkshire holds $334B in cash and T-bills — generating $6.9B/year risk-free. No major acquisitions since 2023. I hold BRK.B and read the cash pile as a signal.
Deals··8 minAmazon Q1 2026: AWS Breaks $26B as Cloud Becomes Profit Equal to Retail
AWS surpassed $26 billion in quarterly revenue with 20% YoY growth, while advertising accelerated to 30% growth. Analysts dissect what Amazon's cloud-first.
Deals··5 minAWS Accelerates, CapEx Hits $200B+ Territory — Here's My Read on the Trade
Amazon Q1 2026: $187.8B revenue, $18.4B operating income, AWS +17% YoY, and $105B CapEx — the largest in corporate history. My read on why it's bullish.
Deals··5 minMeta Is Spending $65B on AI. I'm Long at $563.
Bought META at $563.20 before Q1 earnings; betting on advertising revenue growth overriding AI capex concerns.
Deals··5 minEmerson Electric (EMR): Entering Ahead of a Clean Earnings Beat
I initiated a long in EMR at $138.40 one day before Q1 2026 earnings. The beat and raised guidance sent the stock to $143.60 — a 3.76% gain in two sessions.
Deals··5 minConocoPhillips (COP): Buying the Macro Fear Dip in Quality E&P
COP dropped 2.1% on April 22 on tariff-demand fears — an overreaction in a company with a Permian-dominant, low-breakeven portfolio. I bought the dip at.
Deals··5 minEOG Resources: Entering the Best-in-Class Independent E&P After the Pullback
EOG sat at $129.50 — the lower third of its 12-month range — while the market ignored its well economics story. I entered on April 21 and exited at $134.30 on.
Deals··6 minEQT Corporation: The Natural Gas Setup Nobody Wanted Before the Beat
EQT was down 12% over the prior month when I entered at $56.40 on April 20. Q1 earnings the next day: revenue +94% YoY, EPS $2.36 beat. I exited at $59.80 on.
Deals··3 minTrimmed SPX Put Spread — Taking 60% Profit
Closed the Jan SPX 4800/4700 put spread for 60% profit. Notes on timing.