Journal
Deals

Deals

Trade entries, exits, and position updates — a transparent log of every significant move.

27 entries
  1. Generac's $8 Billion Amazon Deal: $2.4 Billion of Generators, a $340 Million Warrant, an 18% Jump; AI Moves to Power
    Deals··10 min read

    Generac's $8 Billion Amazon Deal: $2.4 Billion of Generators, a $340 Million Warrant, an 18% Jump; AI Moves to Power

    Amazon will buy $2.4B of Generac generators in 2027–28, with a warrant fully vesting at $8B of purchases. GNRC +18.3% to $207.23. Terms, AI power stocks.

  2. Lennar Q3 2026 Results: EPS $1.19, Gross Margin 15.8%, Orders Down 9%, Full-Year Deliveries Cut as Mortgages Pass 7.00%
    Deals··9 min read

    Lennar Q3 2026 Results: EPS $1.19, Gross Margin 15.8%, Orders Down 9%, Full-Year Deliveries Cut as Mortgages Pass 7.00%

    Lennar Q3 2026: EPS $1.19 vs $2.29, revenue $8.05B, both below consensus; orders −9.2%, gross margin 15.8%, deliveries cut to 80–81k. Stock at 52-week low.

  3. Lennar (LEN) Q3 2026 Results: EPS $1.19 vs $1.30 Expected, Margin 15.8%, Orders Down 9%, Deliveries Cut
    Deals··8 min read

    Lennar (LEN) Q3 2026 Results: EPS $1.19 vs $1.30 Expected, Margin 15.8%, Orders Down 9%, Deliveries Cut

    Lennar Q3 2026 results: EPS $1.19 vs $1.30 expected, revenue $8.05B, gross margin 15.8%, orders −9%, deliveries cut to 80–81k. Shares at $73.53.

  4. The $53 Billion Buyout Died and PayPal Lost a Year of Gains in a Day
    Deals··6 min read

    The $53 Billion Buyout Died and PayPal Lost a Year of Gains in a Day

    Advent and Stripe walked away from a $60.50-a-share bid for PayPal. The stock closed down 12.7% at $53.66 — still above where the bid talk began.

  5. KKR Bid $9 Billion for a Gas Utility. The Buyer Is Really the Data Centre
    Deals··6 min read

    KKR Bid $9 Billion for a Gas Utility. The Buyer Is Really the Data Centre

    KKR offered $42.50 a share for UGI, a 21.1% premium to Monday's $35.09 close. The stock closed up 9.4%, not the 13% the intraday headlines reported.

  6. Curaleaf Went Hostile for Aurora Cannabis, and Most of the Premium Is Aurora's Own Cash
    Deals··6 min read

    Curaleaf Went Hostile for Aurora Cannabis, and Most of the Premium Is Aurora's Own Cash

    Curaleaf offered $4.00 a share for Aurora — 0.3463 of its own shares plus $0.75 cash. ACB closed up 20.6% at $3.485 and the board formed a committee.

  7. Honeywell Aerospace Cut Guidance in Its First Quarter Alone and Fell 24%
    Deals··6 min read

    Honeywell Aerospace Cut Guidance in Its First Quarter Alone and Fell 24%

    Six weeks after the spin-off, HONA cut organic growth guidance from 7-9% to 4-5% on a casting shortage. Shares fell as much as 24% to a 52-week low.

  8. The Banks Just Told Us the Freeze Is Over
    Deals··5 min read

    The Banks Just Told Us the Freeze Is Over

    Ruslan Averin on Q2 bank earnings: a trading boom and a 50%+ jump in investment banking say capital markets are reopening after a two-year freeze.

  9. Vertex Buys Crinetics for $10B — A Clean Look at the Deal and the Spread
    Deals··5 min read

    Vertex Buys Crinetics for $10B — A Clean Look at the Deal and the Spread

    Ruslan Averin on Vertex's ~$10B all-cash buyout of Crinetics at $85/share — why the 99% pop, and how I read the merger-arb spread.

  10. SpaceX Just Raised $75 Billion — The Real Story Is Which Door It Opened Behind It
    Deals··3 min read

    SpaceX Just Raised $75 Billion — The Real Story Is Which Door It Opened Behind It

    SpaceX raised $75 billion in the largest IPO ever, more than double Saudi Aramco's record. Ruslan Averin argues the bigger trade isn't SPCX itself — it's the narrow, AI-led IPO window now opening for the next dominoes.

  11. Nuvei Is Buying Payoneer for $2.75B Cash — This Is the Kind of M&A I Actually Like
    Deals··3 min read

    Nuvei Is Buying Payoneer for $2.75B Cash — This Is the Kind of M&A I Actually Like

    Payoneer jumped on June 15 after Nuvei agreed to take it private at $7.40 a share in an all-cash $2.75B deal. Analyst Ruslan Averin on why a clean cash buyout beats a rumor candle every time.

  12. Big Banks Led Friday's Tape — And the Real Catalyst Is Two Weeks Away
    Deals··3 min read

    Big Banks Led Friday's Tape — And the Real Catalyst Is Two Weeks Away

    Goldman, JPMorgan and Wells Fargo rallied on June 12 ahead of late-June stress tests — the gate that decides the next round of buybacks and dividend hikes.

  13. GameStop's $56B eBay Bid Was Rejected. Ryan Cohen's Capital Play Isn't Over.
    Deals··6 min read

    GameStop's $56B eBay Bid Was Rejected. Ryan Cohen's Capital Play Isn't Over.

    GameStop bid $56B ($125/share, 46% premium) to acquire eBay. eBay rejected it as 'neither credible nor attractive.' Here's why Cohen's capital allocation thesis is more interesting than the headline.

  14. A San Francisco VC Just Paid $535 Million for a Piece of OnlyFans — And Called It 'Creator Economy'
    Deals··5 min read

    A San Francisco VC Just Paid $535 Million for a Piece of OnlyFans — And Called It 'Creator Economy'

    Architect Capital paid $535M for 16% of OnlyFans at a $3.15B valuation — one month after the owner's death. The platform generates $7.2B in gross revenue. Here's why this deal is bigger than it looks.

  15. Amazon AWS Q1 2026: 28% Growth, $37.6B Revenue, and the AI Infrastructure Thesis
    Deals··8 min read

    Amazon AWS Q1 2026: 28% Growth, $37.6B Revenue, and the AI Infrastructure Thesis

    AWS Q1 2026 revenue hit $37.59B, up 28% YoY — fastest growth in 15 quarters. Here's why I'm holding AMZN and what the capex bet actually means.

  16. Amazon AWS Q1 2026: 28% Growth, $37.6B Revenue, and the AI Infrastructure Thesis
    Deals··8 min read

    Amazon AWS Q1 2026: 28% Growth, $37.6B Revenue, and the AI Infrastructure Thesis

    AWS posted $37.6B in Q1 2026 — its fastest growth in 15 quarters — as Amazon bets $44B in CapEx on AI supremacy. Here's why I hold AMZN.

  17. Alphabet Q1 2026: Search Holds, YouTube Accelerates, I Added at $168
    Deals··8 min

    Alphabet Q1 2026: Search Holds, YouTube Accelerates, I Added at $168

    Alphabet reported Q1 revenue of $90.2B (+12% YoY), YouTube $9.4B, Cloud $12.3B at 28% margin. I added to my position at $168 post-earnings. Here's the full.

  18. Meta Q1 2026: 42% Operating Margin and Why I Added at $580
    Deals··8 min

    Meta Q1 2026: 42% Operating Margin and Why I Added at $580

    Meta's Q1 2026: $42.3B revenue, 42% operating margin, AI Advantage+ doubling ad performance. I initiated a new position at $572 and added at $580. Full thesis.

  19. Berkshire's $334B Cash Pile: What Buffett Is Waiting For
    Deals··8 min

    Berkshire's $334B Cash Pile: What Buffett Is Waiting For

    Berkshire holds $334B in cash and T-bills — generating $6.9B/year risk-free. No major acquisitions since 2023. I hold BRK.B and read the cash pile as a signal.

  20. Amazon Q1 2026: AWS Breaks $26B as Cloud Becomes Profit Equal to Retail
    Deals··8 min

    Amazon Q1 2026: AWS Breaks $26B as Cloud Becomes Profit Equal to Retail

    AWS surpassed $26 billion in quarterly revenue with 20% YoY growth, while advertising accelerated to 30% growth. Analysts dissect what Amazon's cloud-first.

  21. AWS Accelerates, CapEx Hits $200B+ Territory — Here's My Read on the Trade
    Deals··5 min

    AWS Accelerates, CapEx Hits $200B+ Territory — Here's My Read on the Trade

    Amazon Q1 2026: $187.8B revenue, $18.4B operating income, AWS +17% YoY, and $105B CapEx — the largest in corporate history. My read on why it's bullish.

  22. Meta Is Spending $65B on AI. I'm Long at $563.
    Deals··5 min

    Meta Is Spending $65B on AI. I'm Long at $563.

    Bought META at $563.20 before Q1 earnings; betting on advertising revenue growth overriding AI capex concerns.

  23. Emerson Electric (EMR) 2026 Results: Q3 EPS $1.71 vs $1.68, Guidance Raised to $6.55, Stock at $161
    Deals··5 min

    Emerson Electric (EMR) 2026 Results: Q3 EPS $1.71 vs $1.68, Guidance Raised to $6.55, Stock at $161

    Emerson (EMR) results: fiscal Q2 EPS $1.54 on 5 May, Q3 $1.71 vs $1.68 on 4 August, full-year guide raised to ~$6.55. Stock $161.08 on 14 October.

  24. ConocoPhillips (COP): Buying the Macro Fear Dip in Quality E&P
    Deals··5 min

    ConocoPhillips (COP): Buying the Macro Fear Dip in Quality E&P

    COP dropped 2.1% on April 22 on tariff-demand fears — an overreaction in a company with a Permian-dominant, low-breakeven portfolio. I bought the dip at.

  25. EOG Resources: Entering the Best-in-Class Independent E&P After the Pullback
    Deals··5 min

    EOG Resources: Entering the Best-in-Class Independent E&P After the Pullback

    EOG sat at $129.50 — the lower third of its 12-month range — while the market ignored its well economics story. I entered on April 21 and exited at $134.30 on.

  26. EQT Corporation: The Natural Gas Setup Nobody Wanted Before the Beat
    Deals··6 min

    EQT Corporation: The Natural Gas Setup Nobody Wanted Before the Beat

    EQT was down 12% over the prior month when I entered at $56.40 on April 20. Q1 earnings the next day: revenue +94% YoY, EPS $2.36 beat. I exited at $59.80 on.

  27. Trimmed SPX Put Spread — Taking 60% Profit
    Deals··3 min

    Trimmed SPX Put Spread — Taking 60% Profit

    Closed the Jan SPX 4800/4700 put spread for 60% profit. Notes on timing.

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