Ruslan Averin — Market Analysis Journal

479 entries

A running archive of investment thinking — markets, property, capital allocation, and the occasional philosophical detour.

September 2026

37 entries

Fed Decision Day, 16 September 2026: Three Scenarios for 14:00 ET, With the 10-Year at 5% and a Hike 92% Priced

Fed decision today at 14:00 ET: a 25bp hike is 92% priced, the 10-year sits at 5%, gold at $4,339. Three scenarios, t…

Markets

Sep 16·9 min read

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Zuckerberg vs Anthropic on an 'AI Slowdown': What the Week of Essays Did to Chip Stocks, Meta and $800 Billion of Capex

Amodei asked to pace the frontier, Zuckerberg said no, SOX fell 5.9% in a day. What the AI slowdown debate means for…

Markets

Sep 16·10 min read

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NBU Rate Decision on 17 September 2026: 15.5% or 16%, and What It Means for Deposits, OVDP, єОселя and the Hryvnia

NBU decides on 17 September: hold at 15.5% or hike to 16% as August inflation hit 8.1%. What it means for deposits at…

Markets

Sep 16·9 min read

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Kyiv Rents in September 2026: 18,000 UAH for a One-Room Flat, No Autumn Jump, While Uzhhorod and Lviv Rise 33%

Kyiv one-room rent is 18,000 UAH in September 2026, down 2.7% on the month with no student-season jump; Uzhhorod 29,1…

Real Estate

Sep 16·9 min read

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Finland's €290 Million Is Package Number 34: Who Pays for Ukraine's 2027 Budget, and Where the $32.6 Billion Hole Is

Finland approved a €290M package, its 34th. Ukraine's 2027 budget needs $52.6B from abroad, $32.6B of it unfunded. Wh…

Analysis

Sep 16·10 min read

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The 10-Year Treasury Touched 5.04% on 15 September 2026, the Highest Since July 2007. Stocks Now Yield Less Than Bonds. What a Portfolio Does With That

10-year Treasury hit 5.04% on 15 September 2026, highest since July 2007. S&P 500 earnings yield 5.2%, mortgages 7.17…

Markets

Sep 15·9 min read

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Saudi Arabia Has Five to Seven Days of Stored Crude at Yanbu. The East-West Pipeline Is Shut, Brent Is Above $105 and the Restart Has No Date

Saudi East-West pipeline shut since 11 September 2026: 4 million barrels a day stranded, Yanbu stocks last 5–7 days,…

Markets

Sep 15·8 min read

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El Niño Reached the 'Very Strong' Line on 14 September 2026 With a 75% Chance of the Biggest Event Since 1950. Which Food Commodities Have Priced It and Which Have Not

Super El Niño 2026: NOAA sees a 75% chance of the strongest event since 1950. Sugar +21% in August, rice +35% YTD, co…

Analysis

Sep 15·9 min read

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Lennar Reports on 16 September 2026, Hours After the Fed: Margins at 16%, Incentives at 12.9%, Mortgages at 6.76% and Builder Confidence at 34

Lennar Q3 2026 earnings on 16 September: consensus EPS $1.30 on $8.37B, gross margin guided 16%, incentives 12.9%, mo…

Deals

Sep 15·8 min read

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Ukraine's New-Builds Reprice This Autumn: Finished Flats Up 7–10%, eOselya at 11.7 Billion Hryvnia Since January, and a One-Room Flat for $16,900 in Zaporizhzhia

Ukraine new-build prices autumn 2026: finished flats +7–10%, early stage +3–5%; eOselya 5,909 loans, 11.7bn UAH since…

Real Estate

Sep 15·8 min read

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Gold Is Below $4,300 the Day Before the Fed Hikes: 23% Off the January Record, Three Weekly Declines, Real Yields at 2.63%. Where the Floor Is

Gold at $4,285 on 15 September 2026, 23% below the January record after three weekly declines. Real yields 2.63%, Fed…

Markets

Sep 15·8 min read

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Fed Decision on 16 September 2026: The First Rate Hike Since 2023 Is Priced at 87%. What It Does to Bonds, Mortgages and Gold

Fed decision 16 September 2026: an 87% priced chance of the first hike since July 2023. 10-year at 5%, mortgages 6.76…

Markets

Sep 14·8 min read

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Diesel at $6.23, a Record: Why Trump Asked Ukraine to Spare Russian Refineries and Who Pays for the Shortage

US diesel hit a record $6.23 on 14 September 2026 and Trump asked Ukraine to spare Russian refineries. The numbers be…

Markets

Sep 14·8 min read

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Amodei, Altman and Musk Asked to Slow AI Down. Chips Fell 6%, the Buyers of Chips Rose: What the Market Is Actually Pricing

Amodei's call to pace AI, backed by Altman and Musk, sent the SOX down 5.6%, AMD −5.9% and Nvidia −3.5% on 14 Septemb…

Markets

Sep 14·8 min read

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Nine Weeks Above $1 Billion: What the NBU's Dollar Sales Say About the Hryvnia at 44.62, and Where the Rate Goes by December

The NBU sold $1.19 billion in the week to 11 September, a ninth week above $1 billion. Hryvnia 44.62, reserves down 1…

Markets

Sep 14·8 min read

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Pension at 60 in Ukraine Will Need 34 Years of Service From 2027: Who Falls Short, What a Missing Year Costs, and What Replaces the State Pension

From 2027 a pension at 60 in Ukraine needs 34 years of service, 35 from 2028. A year costs 22,828 UAH to buy; the ave…

Analysis

Sep 14·9 min read

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Apartments in Ukraine Doubled in Seven Years: Ivano-Frankivsk +189%, Kyiv +42%, Kharkiv −29%. Where the Money Went and Whether It Beat Inflation

One-room flats in Ukraine 2019–2026: Ivano-Frankivsk +189%, Uzhhorod +128%, Lviv +82%, Kyiv +42%, Kharkiv −29%. Twelv…

Real Estate

Sep 14·9 min read

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Bitcoin at $78,500 Before Two Votes in 48 Hours: the Clarity Act Cloture on Tuesday and the Fed Hike on Wednesday. What Is Priced and What Is Not

Bitcoin $78,500 before the Clarity Act cloture vote on Tuesday and the Fed hike on Wednesday. ETF outflows $463M, odd…

Markets

Sep 14·8 min read

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Investing in Kyiv in 2026: Four Ways to Put Money Into the City and What Each Actually Returns

Investing in Kyiv 2026: a buy-to-let flat nets 4.2%, a new build at construction stage 25–40% per cycle, commercial 9…

Real Estate

Sep 12·9 min read

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Investing in Kyiv New Builds at the Pit Stage in 2026: What Is Really Left After Delays, Fees and Tax

Investing in Kyiv new builds 2026: prices rise 25–40% from pit to commissioning, but after fees, 23% tax on profit an…

Real Estate

Sep 12·9 min read

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Buying an Apartment in Kyiv in 2026: The Deal Step by Step, From Deposit to Title, With Timings, Documents and Where Money Is Lost

Buying an apartment in Kyiv 2026 step by step: registry checks, deposit under art. 571, appraisal, seller's tax 0/10/…

Real Estate

Sep 12·10 min read

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What an Apartment in Kyiv Costs in September 2026: Prices by District, Listings Versus Real Deals, and What Changed in a Year

Kyiv apartment prices September 2026: one-room $68,500 (+5%), two-room $102,000, three-room $150,000; real deals 19–3…

Real Estate

Sep 12·9 min read

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Buying to Let in Kyiv in 2026: Which Apartment to Buy, Calculated by Type and District on September Prices

Buy-to-let in Kyiv 2026: a one-room flat yields 7.1% gross at asking price and 8.7% at deal price; three-room flats t…

Real Estate

Sep 12·10 min read

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Letting an Apartment in Kyiv in 2026: FOP or Individual, the Lease, Property Tax, and What Is Left in Hand

Letting an apartment in Kyiv 2026: an individual pays 23%, a group 3 FOP 6% plus UAH 1,902 USC, break-even UAH 11,200…

Real Estate

Sep 12·9 min read

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Buying an Apartment in Kyiv Through Developer Programmes in 2026: 0% Instalments, Partner Mortgages, Full-Payment Discounts, and the Fine Print

Kyiv developer programmes 2026: 0% instalments up to 5 years with a 10–50% deposit, 3–10% discount for full payment,…

Real Estate

Sep 12·9 min read

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How State Programmes Stack Into One Kyiv Apartment Purchase in 2026: Certificate, Deposit Compensation, eOselya, 50/50

Buying through programmes in Kyiv 2026: an eVidnovlennia certificate as the eOselya deposit, UAH 420,000 veterans' co…

Real Estate

Sep 12·10 min read

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Selling an Apartment Owned Less Than 3 Years in Ukraine, 2026: 10% of the Full Price, How the Clock Runs and When Waiting Pays

Selling an apartment owned under 3 years in Ukraine 2026 costs 5% PIT plus 5% military levy on the full price, not th…

Real Estate

Sep 12·9 min read

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Selling a New-Build Apartment Before Commissioning: 23% of the Profit or 10% of the Price, and Where the Line Runs

Assigning rights to a new-build apartment in Ukraine is taxed at 18% + 5% on profit; selling after title registration…

Real Estate

Sep 12·8 min read

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Property Tax in Ukraine, 2026: Who Pays, How Much per Square Metre, and How Kyiv Calculates It

Property tax in Ukraine 2026 is charged only on metres above 60 m² for apartments and 120 m² for houses, at UAH 120 p…

Real Estate

Sep 12·8 min read

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Every Property Tax an Owner Pays in Ukraine in 2026: Buying, Holding, Letting, Selling, Inheriting and Gifting, in One Table

Every real estate tax in Ukraine 2026 in one table: 2% at purchase, UAH 120 per m² a year, 23% or 6% on rent, 0/10/23…

Real Estate

Sep 12·10 min read

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The Fed Held at 3.75%. The Bond Market Hiked Anyway: The US Yield Curve in September 2026

Fed funds held at 3.75% since December; the 10-year rose from 4.19% to 4.80%, the 30-year to 5.25%. Every maturity, t…

Markets

Sep 10·8 min read

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The 30-Year Treasury at 5.2%: Highest Since 2001, and Who Is Still Buying

30-year Treasury auctioned at 5.216%, highest since 2001; peak 5.31%. Debt at 100% of GDP, Japan selling, dealers at…

Markets

Sep 10·8 min read

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Corporate Bonds Pay 5.53%. Only 0.81% of That Is for Corporate Risk

IG corporates yield 5.53%: 4.72% is the Treasury, 0.81% the spread. HY 7.22%, BB 6.11%, CCC 15%. Spreads near two-yea…

Markets

Sep 10·8 min read

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Two Dates That Set Your Coupon: CPI on 11 September, the Fed on 16 September

August CPI on 11 Sep, FOMC on 16 Sep with 56% hike odds. What each outcome does to bills, the 2-year and 30-year, a l…

Markets

Sep 10·9 min read

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Rent or Coupons? Part 1: Why the Kyiv Landlord Is Losing to a Bond

A Kyiv one-bedroom yields 7.36% gross and 4.35% net. Investment grade corporate bonds pay 5.51% today, with no tenant…

Real Estate

Sep 7·8 min read

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Rent or Coupons? Part 2: The Case Against the Bond

Investment grade pays 0.81% for corporate risk and high yield 2.65%. Against a 3% mortgage and a tax-free exit, the c…

Real Estate

Sep 7·8 min read

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Rent or Coupons? Part 3 (Final): The Verdict

The apartment nets 4.35%, the bond pays 5.51%. The gap is 1.16% a year — exactly the appreciation the property must d…

Real Estate

Sep 7·9 min read

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August 2026

3 entries

Jackson Hole Put a Rate Hike Back on the Table

Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote never mentioned a cut. September hike odds went from 35.4% to 45.7% and the…

News

Aug 29·6 min read

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Nvidia Beat Everything and Gave Half of It Back

Nvidia posted $96.2 billion in quarterly revenue, guided to $108 billion and forecast 70% growth for fiscal 2028. The…

News

Aug 29·6 min read

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Salesforce Beat Revenue by 0.25% and the Stock Rose 22.6%

Salesforce revenue of $11.345 billion beat estimates by 0.25%. Adjusted EPS of $5.90 beat by 80%. The stock closed up…

News

Aug 29·6 min read

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40 entries