Ruslan Averin — Market Analysis Journal

84 entries

A running archive of investment thinking — markets, property, capital allocation, and the occasional philosophical detour.

May 2026

20 entries

Dubai Property After Iran's Strikes: What Fell, What Held, and Where Capital Is Moving in 2026

Iran struck Dubai directly — airport, Burj Al Arab, Palm Jumeirah. Transactions fell 25%, prices 4–6%. Here is the full damage report and where the opportunity now sits.

Real Estate

May 3·14 min

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IBKR Stock Analysis 2026: Buy Zone $118–124, Target $132

IBKR stock consolidates 3% below all-time high. Volatility drives revenue, RSI has room, 14 analysts rate Buy. Entry $118–124, target $132.

Analysis

May 2·7 min read

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UNH Stock 2026: Is the 40% Crash a Buy at $312?

UNH stock crashed 40% then recovered 35%. RSI cooling and CEO transition managed — the $312–340 zone is our structural entry target.

Analysis

May 2·7 min read

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EL Stock Analysis 2026: Estée Lauder at Half Fair Value

EL stock trades at $79 vs GF fair value of $106. Q1 beat sent shares up 11.5% in one session. The bottoming pattern is forming — entry $72–80.

Analysis

May 2·6 min read

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FSLR Stock Forecast 2026: Record Quarter, Target $238

FSLR stock hit record $1B quarterly revenue and broke out 7.1% on earnings. Only US CdTe panel maker — immune to tariffs. Target $238.

Analysis

May 2·7 min read

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UPS Stock 2026: 6% Dividend and 4:1 Institutional Buy Ratio

UPS stock yields 6.1% and institutional buyers ran 4:1 in Q1 2026. Down 45% from peak, the $117–124 buy zone offers asymmetric upside in logistics.

Analysis

May 2·6 min read

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BNTX Stock Analysis 2026: mRNA Oncology vs COVID Valuation

BNTX stock broke above 200-day MA. With 47 oncology programs and $10B cash, the market still prices it as a COVID play — that gap is the trade.

Analysis

May 2·7 min read

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SLB Stock 2026: 26 Bullish Signals, Zero Bearish — Target $63

SLB stock flashed 26/26 bullish technical signals and is up 41% YTD. Citi and UBS target $68–69. The cleanest chart in the entire oil sector.

Analysis

May 2·6 min read

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HAL Stock Analysis 2026: Earnings Beat, Resistance Broken, Target $48

HAL stock surged 7% on Q1 beat and broke key resistance the same session. 17 analyst Buy ratings. Entry zone $38–41, target $48.

Analysis

May 2·6 min read

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BKR Stock 2026: Baker Hughes Powers AI Data Centers, Target $80

BKR stock isn't just oilfield — it builds LNG turbines for AI data centers. Susquehanna raised target to $80. Buy zone $62–66.

Analysis

May 2·7 min read

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CAT Stock 2026: +185% Run — Can Caterpillar Hit $1,000?

CAT stock posted a 19% EPS beat and hit all-time highs in Q1 2026. ChartMill 10/10 technical rating. Bull case to $935–1000 backed by AI infrastructure.

Analysis

May 2·7 min read

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EMR Stock Analysis 2026: 1.7GW AI Contract Before Earnings

EMR stock power control orders grew 74% YoY with a 1.7GW AI data center contract. Q2 earnings May 5. Buy zone $138–143.

Analysis

May 2·6 min read

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Dubai Real Estate Q1 2026: AED 176.7B Record Year, First Price Correction in 14 Quarters

Dubai set an AED 176.7B annual transaction record in 2025 while Q1 2026 shows the first price decline in 14 quarters. Fitch warns of investment-grade correction ahead.

Real Estate

May 1·8 min

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BMW Q1 2026: Triple Compression — Tariffs, China Demand, BEV Miss

BMW delivered 565,748 cars in Q1 2026. The stock is down 25% YTD. Three simultaneous pressures explain both numbers.

Analysis

May 1·7 min

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Boeing Q1 2026 Earnings: $0.55 Beat, Cash Burn Turns — Is the Inflection Real?

Boeing Q1 2026 earnings beat consensus by $0.55 on EPS. Cash burn narrowed from -$1.6B to -$179M. The inflection trade is becoming real — with three caveats.

Analysis

May 1·8 min

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Berlin Real Estate Investment 2026: Decade-Low Prices, Rising Foreign Capital

Berlin real estate investment in 2026 hits decade-low valuations — 22.6x rent multiple — as foreign capital doubles its market share. Here's what the numbers say.

Real Estate

May 1·8 min

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Istanbul Property Prices Rose 28%: What Dollar Investors Actually Made in 2026

Istanbul property prices rose 28% in lira in 2025 — but inflation-adjusted USD returns turned negative. A district-by-district yield analysis for 2026 investors.

Real Estate

May 1·8 min

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ULTA Beauty Stock Analysis 2026: After Buffett's Exit, What Now?

Berkshire spent $266M buying ULTA Beauty in 2024, then exited before a 40% rally. Now at $607 with double-digit EPS guidance, is this the setup they abandoned?

Analysis

May 1·8 min

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American Airlines Q1 2026 Earnings: $0.53 Beat, Guidance Pulled — The Trade Logic

American Airlines beat Q1 2026 EPS consensus by $0.53 on record loyalty revenue. Management then withdrew annual guidance, citing macro and tariff uncertainty.

Analysis

May 1·7 min

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SMCI Options Before May 5 Earnings: IV at 70% vs 159% Realized Vol

SMCI options before May 5 earnings: implied volatility at 70% vs 159% realized — a rare setup where options are priced too cheap for actual moves.

Options

May 1·7 min

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April 2026

54 entries

Microsoft Q3 FY2026: Azure Growth Reaccelerates to 35%, Copilot Revenue Finally Visible

Azure accelerates to 35% YoY growth; Copilot seats hit 20M+. Our analysts assess what $80B capex signals for AI dominance.

Analysis

Apr 30·8 min

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Fed FOMC May 2026 Preview: Will the Fed Hold Rates Again?

FOMC meets June 16-17. Hold probability 70%, cut 28%. Weak GDP and sticky prices complicate the projections.

News

Apr 30·8 min

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US Office Real Estate Distress 2026: Vacancy at Record, but the Cycle Is Turning

US office vacancy hit 22.2% in Q1 2026—yet distressed sales are resetting valuations while patient capital scouts selective opportunities. Where the cycle stands and what patient investors see.

Real Estate

Apr 30·9 min

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SPX Recovery and VIX Compression After Tariff Shock: Reading the Signals for May 2026

SPX bounced 12% from April lows, VIX fell to 22. Here's what the numbers tell us about May.

Markets

Apr 30·7 min

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NVIDIA Covered Call at $250: Collecting $10.50 in May When IV Peaks

I sold the May $250 covered call for $10.50 per share with IV at 31%. Effective cost basis: $216.90. Target: either 9.9% return at assignment or keep shares if NVIDIA stays below strike.

Options

Apr 30·8 min

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Amazon Q1 2026: AWS Breaks $26B as Cloud Becomes Profit Equal to Retail

AWS surpassed $26 billion in quarterly revenue with 20% YoY growth, while advertising accelerated to 30% growth. Analysts dissect what Amazon's cloud-first results mean for Q2 margins and AI infrastructure spending.

Deals

Apr 30·8 min

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Cutting Losses vs. Holding Conviction: How to Know the Difference

The difference between a broken thesis and price discomfort. My rule: write down why you bought it before the moment you want to sell it.

Philosophy

Apr 30·8 min

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London Buy-to-Let 2026: What Yields Actually Look Like

London buy-to-let 2026: yields hit 6–7% in outer east, but Section 24 and SDLT stack change the math. A zone-by-zone investor breakdown.

Real Estate

Apr 30·12 min

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Warsaw Real Estate Investment 2026: District Yields and Entry Strategy

Warsaw real estate Q1 2026: district-by-district yields, NBP rate cut impact, Ukrainian demand, and optimal entry zones for buy-to-let investors.

Real Estate

Apr 30·14 min

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London vs Warsaw vs Kyiv: Buy-to-Let Returns in 2026, Compared

London, Warsaw, Kyiv — three capitals, three risk profiles. Which city delivers the best risk-adjusted returns for buy-to-let investors in 2026?

Real Estate

Apr 30·13 min

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Kyiv Buy-to-Let 2026: Why New Build + Renovation Beats Secondary in 8 of 10 Districts

Kyiv buy-to-let 2026: real lun.ua prices show primary market + 50% renovation yields 0.4–2.2 percentage points above secondary in 8 of 10 districts. District-by-district and building-level analysis.

Real Estate

Apr 30·14 min

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Powell's Final FOMC: The 8-4 Vote That Signals What Comes Next

Jerome Powell's last FOMC ended with rates held at 3.50–3.75% and an 8-4 internal vote. The split reveals more than the decision.

News

Apr 30·6 min

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NVDA Options Before Earnings: Vol Positioning as IV Compresses to 17.8%

VIX at 17.8 after six weeks of compression. NVDA earnings May 21. The pre-earnings vol expansion window is open — here is the setup.

Options

Apr 30·7 min

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Singapore Property Districts 2026: Yields, Prices and the Honest Outlook

Singapore's 28 property districts yield 2.5–4.5%. A district-by-district breakdown of CCR, RCR, and OCR returns — and where the 2026 value actually sits.

Real Estate

Apr 29·12 min

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The Perfect Storm: FOMC, Big Tech, and GDP in One Week

Four catalysts collide this week: Fed holds steady, MSFT GOOGL META AMZN all report, GDP shock at 0.5%. What I'm watching.

Weekly Note

Apr 29·4 min

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GDP at 0.5%, Oil Above $100, a New Fed Chair: My Q2 2026 Read

Q1 GDP at 0.5%, Brent above $107 with Hormuz closed, Fed chair transition — three shocks converging. Here's what I'm watching and where I'm positioned.

Markets

Apr 29·5 min

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The Perfect Storm for Premium Sellers: VIX 18, Mega Earnings, and a Fed on Hold

Four mega-cap earnings in one week, a Fed decision, and a GDP shock — all while VIX sits at 18. I'm not guessing direction. I'm collecting premium.

Options

Apr 29·5 min

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AWS Accelerates, CapEx Hits $200B+ Territory — Here's My Read on the Trade

Amazon Q1 2026: $187.8B revenue, $18.4B operating income, AWS +17% YoY, and $105B CapEx — the largest in corporate history. My read on why it's bullish.

Deals

Apr 29·5 min

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Dubai Real Estate Q1 2026: Record AED 176.4B in Sales — and the First Price Drop in 14 Quarters

Dubai Q1 2026: record AED 176.4B in transactions yet first price decline in 14 quarters. The paradox explained for investors evaluating the market.

Real Estate

Apr 29·6 min

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Federal Reserve Holds Rates at 3.50–3.75% in Powell's Final Meeting

The Fed maintained steady rates as Jerome Powell concludes his tenure. Kevin Warsh nomination advances amid market expectations of 1–2 cuts by year-end.

News

Apr 29·4 min

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The Less You Know About Tomorrow, the More You Should Plan Today

A framework for investing when uncertainty peaks: why position size matters more than being right about direction.

Philosophy

Apr 29·6 min

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Alphabet Q1 2026 Earnings Analysis: The $2.81 EPS That Rewrote the AI Narrative

Alphabet Q1 2026 earnings analysis: $90.2B revenue, $2.81 EPS vs $2.01 expected, Google Cloud +28% YoY, $70B buyback announced.

Analysis

Apr 29·5 min

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I Paid $18 to Own Both Sides of Microsoft Earnings

Positioned a $412 straddle before MSFT earnings (April 30) for $18.40 per contract, betting on Azure growth re-acceleration or guidance disappointment.

Options

Apr 28·5 min

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Meta Is Spending $65B on AI. I'm Long at $563.

Bought META at $563.20 before Q1 earnings; betting on advertising revenue growth overriding AI capex concerns.

Deals

Apr 28·5 min

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Apple's China Sales Fell 11%. I'm Still Getting Paid on My Shares.

Sold covered calls on AAPL at $204.80, capping upside at $210 while hedging against a worse-than-consensus China earnings miss.

Options

Apr 28·5 min

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DXY Below 98: The Quiet Trade That's Beating Everything in 2026

DXY below 98.4 for the first time since 2022 changes everything — I trimmed USD cash 8 points and redeployed into gold, EM equities, and commodity multinationals.

Markets

Apr 28·6 min

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Markets Are Calm. I Just Paid $24 to Disagree.

VIX at 14.8 with SPX at 5,420 pricing in a Goldilocks scenario—no cuts, no hikes. I bought a June SPX put spread ($24 debit) to hedge equity book tail risk. Thesis: FOMC language around tariff inflation and May jobs data will force repricing.

Options

Apr 28·5 min

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18% Vacancy, 10% Yields: The Kyiv Trade Nobody Is Making

Class A office vacancy in Kyiv compressed to 18% as international companies return—net yields reaching 9–11% signal structural demand from EU firms.

Real Estate

Apr 28·6 min

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Pfizer (PFE): The Restructuring Nobody Is Watching

Pfizer trades near its lows while quietly rebuilding through oncology, Seagen integration, and a 6.5% yield that keeps the question alive: value trap or slow-burn recovery?

Analysis

Apr 26·8 min

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PBF Energy (PBF): Reading the Refiner's Thermometer

PBF Energy is a pure-play independent refiner trading below book, a cyclical thermometer for the American fuel economy that the market prefers to ignore until crack spreads move.

Analysis

Apr 26·7 min

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Palo Alto Networks (PANW): Platformization and Its Price

PANW is executing a difficult strategic pivot toward full-stack security while trading at 20x revenue. The RPO-to-revenue gap is the single metric that decides whether the thesis holds.

Analysis

Apr 26·8 min

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Occidental Petroleum (OXY): Buffett's Hypothesis on American Shale

OXY is a leveraged bet on domestic shale longevity wrapped inside a chemicals-and-midstream chassis. The CrownRock acquisition reshaped the balance sheet. What matters now is whether deleveraging stays on schedule.

Analysis

Apr 26·9 min

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Realty Income (O): The Coupon Machine and Its Rate Problem

Thirty years of dividend growth, 15,000+ properties, a 5.7% yield trading at 13x AFFO versus a historical 18–20x. Realty Income is not a growth story — it is a compounding income instrument, and the compounding only works with patience.

Analysis

Apr 26·8 min

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Caterpillar (CAT): Covered Call Against an All-Time High

CAT hit a new all-time high of $845 on April 23. I was positioned long at $824 with a covered call at $840 — capped upside, but 3.1% in five sessions is exactly what the structure was designed to deliver.

Options

Apr 25·5 min

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Honeywell (HON): Fading the Beat When the Guidance Tells You More

HON beat Q1 EPS by $0.13 but missed revenue and guided Q2 below consensus. I opened a bear put spread at $215/$205 after the initial reaction faded. Sometimes the guidance is the only number that matters.

Options

Apr 25·5 min

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ExxonMobil (XOM): A Covered Call at Range Resistance When Crude Was Indecisive

XOM had been capped at $150 for several sessions while crude stayed indecisive. I entered at $146.80, sold the $150 covered call at $1.80, and closed the full position at $150.40 — a 3.34% net return with defined downside.

Options

Apr 25·5 min

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Diamondback Energy (FANG): Selling Premium While the Catalyst Calendar Is Light

FANG was $10 below its March high with no near-term catalysts in sight. I bought at $191.80 and sold the $195 call at $3.80 — the call expired worthless at Friday's $194.80 close, delivering 3.55% including premium.

Options

Apr 25·5 min

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Emerson Electric (EMR): Entering Ahead of a Clean Earnings Beat

I initiated a long in EMR at $138.40 one day before Q1 2026 earnings. The beat and raised guidance sent the stock to $143.60 — a 3.76% gain in two sessions, and confirmation that the automation cycle is real.

Deals

Apr 24·5 min

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ConocoPhillips (COP): Buying the Macro Fear Dip in Quality E&P

COP dropped 2.1% on April 22 on tariff-demand fears — an overreaction in a company with a Permian-dominant, low-breakeven portfolio. I bought the dip at $120.90 and exited at $124.90 three sessions later for 3.1%.

Deals

Apr 24·5 min

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Bond Market 2026: The Best Opportunity in a Decade?

With the Fed on hold at 3.50-3.75% and 10-year yields above 4.3%, bonds are offering the best risk-adjusted entry I've seen since 2013.

Markets

Apr 24·8 min

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Global Real Estate Markets 2026: Where Smart Money Is Moving

From Kyiv's war-discounted apartments to Dubai's oversupply risk and Singapore's controlled bubble — a city-by-city breakdown of where the value is.

Real Estate

Apr 24·9 min

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Gold, Oil, and the Dollar: Commodities Outlook for 2026

Gold at $4,800, Brent above $100, and the dollar weakening — how commodities fit into my portfolio and what I'm doing about it.

Markets

Apr 24·7 min

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US Markets Q2 2026: Where I'm Looking and Why

S&P at 7,137 with a forward P/E of 21.4x. Sector rotation is real, energy is leading, and the Fed is on hold. Here's where I'm deploying capital.

Markets

Apr 24·10 min

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AI Stocks in 2026: Bubble or Just Getting Started?

NVIDIA at 22x forward, $690B in hyperscaler capex, and everyone screaming 'dot-com 2.0.' Here's why they're mostly wrong — and partially right.

Markets

Apr 24·9 min

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European Markets: The Contrarian Case for EU Equities

The DAX at 17x earnings while the S&P trades at 21x. European defense spending is booming, banks are flush, and nobody in the US is paying attention. That's exactly why I'm buying.

Markets

Apr 24·8 min

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Geopolitics and Markets: What Traders Actually Need to Watch in 2026

Wars, tariffs, elections, oil blockades — the geopolitical risk menu is the thickest I have seen in my career, and most investors are pricing almost none of it.

Markets

Apr 24·10 min

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My Options Playbook for Q2 2026

VIX at 19, Iran war premiums elevated, earnings season in full swing — here is exactly what I am running and why.

Options

Apr 24·8 min

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Week 18: Markets Digest Earnings Season

Q1 earnings off to a strong start with an 88% beat rate, Tesla stumbles on capex guidance, and gold holds above $4,700 as the Iran ceasefire wobbles.

Weekly Note

Apr 24·3 min

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EOG Resources: Entering the Best-in-Class Independent E&P After the Pullback

EOG sat at $129.50 — the lower third of its 12-month range — while the market ignored its well economics story. I entered on April 21 and exited at $134.30 on April 25 after a sell-side PT raise to $139, locking 3.7%.

Deals

Apr 23·5 min

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EQT Corporation: The Natural Gas Setup Nobody Wanted Before the Beat

EQT was down 12% over the prior month when I entered at $56.40 on April 20. Q1 earnings the next day: revenue +94% YoY, EPS $2.36 beat. I exited at $59.80 on April 22 for 6.0% in two sessions.

Deals

Apr 23·6 min

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The Case for Buying Real Estate When Everyone Runs

Significant discounts to market. The math of buying distressed assets when nobody else will.

Real Estate

Apr 22·6 min

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10 Lessons From a Decade in Markets

The market doesn't care about your thesis. It cares about your risk management.

Philosophy

Apr 20·12 min

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Options as Insurance, Not Gambling

Most retail traders use options to speculate. I use them to sleep at night.

Options

Apr 18·6 min

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Discount Analysis: How to Price Fear

When a market drops 40%, is the bottom at 50%? 60%? Here's my framework.

Real Estate

Apr 15·6 min

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March 2026

2 entries

Kyiv Rental Market Q1 2026: District-by-District Analysis

Pechersk yields compress while Left Bank surprises. A district-level breakdown of where the rental math actually works in Kyiv right now.

Real Estate

Mar 28·12 min

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Premium vs Economy Rentals in Kyiv: Where the Yield Actually Is

Everyone wants premium tenants. But the gross yield numbers tell a different story. A segment-by-segment breakdown.

Real Estate

Mar 15·9 min

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February 2026

1 entries

War, Recovery, and Rental Demand: How Kyiv's Tenant Profile Changed

The tenant profile in Kyiv rentals in 2026 looks nothing like 2021. Here is what changed and what it means for landlords.

Real Estate

Feb 20·8 min

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January 2026

1 entries

5 Kyiv Residential Complexes I'm Watching for Rental Investment

My watchlist for 2026: five Kyiv residential complexes where the rental math looks compelling. No sales pitch — just analysis.

Real Estate

Jan 18·8 min

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May 2025

1 entries

Fed Holds Rates Steady — What It Means for Portfolios

The Fed kept rates at 5.25–5.50%. Markets rallied briefly. My quick take.

News

May 1·2 min

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April 2025

1 entries

Dubai Real Estate 2025: Cycle Analysis and Entry Timing

Is Dubai property still a buy? I run through supply, demand, and cycle positioning.

Analysis

Apr 1·9 min

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March 2025

1 entries

Iron Condor Strategy: How I Generate Monthly Income on SPX

Iron condors on SPX index — my full setup, management rules, and real results.

Analysis

Mar 10·7 min

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February 2025

1 entries

NVIDIA Q1 2025 Earnings: $24.9B Revenue, What's Next

NVIDIA beat estimates again. Data center demand shows no signs of slowing.

News

Feb 26·2 min

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January 2025

2 entries

Trimmed SPX Put Spread — Taking 60% Profit

Closed the Jan SPX 4800/4700 put spread for 60% profit. Notes on timing.

Deals

Jan 20·3 min

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Emerging Markets 2025: Why I'm Increasing Exposure

EM equities are cheap vs. US by almost any metric. Here's my thesis.

Analysis

Jan 15·8 min

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84 entries