Real estate is the asset class I know best. Not because I've read the most books on it — but because I've worked across multiple markets, dealt with local lawyers who don't speak my language, and navigated tax regimes that seem designed to confuse. Here's my 2026 read on the markets I follow.
Kyiv: The Recovery Is Underway — But Slowly
The Kyiv real estate framework has been covered in earlier posts — this update focuses on what changed in 2026.
The Ukrainian real estate market in 2026 is no longer in shock. It's adapting. Demand has revived significantly — 23% of Ukrainians now plan to purchase property within the next year, up from just 12% in January 2025. That's a meaningful shift in sentiment.
Kyiv's average price per square meter has reached approximately $1,426, and developers expect another 10-15% increase through the year as construction costs, energy prices, and labor shortages push costs higher. The western cities — Lviv, Uzhhorod, Ivano-Frankivsk — are seeing the strongest demand, driven by internal migration and concentration of economic activity.
What I'm watching: the gap between replacement cost and market price. In many Kyiv developments, units still trade below what it would cost to build them today. That gap is narrowing, but it hasn't closed. For new entrants, the window of opportunity is shrinking but still open.
The key risk remains obvious: the war. No analysis can model the full range of outcomes. The right framework: size positions assuming a worst-case scenario, build in enough margin of safety that even partial recovery generates acceptable returns. The rental yield math on properties acquired at 2022–2023 discounts continues to validate the original thesis.
Singapore: Not a Bubble, but Not Cheap Either
Singapore's private residential property prices rose 1.2% in Q1 2026 — the slowest growth in eight quarters. After years of aggressive price increases, the market is entering what analysts call "normalization."
The Residential Property Price Index is forecast to reach 231 points in 2026. Private home prices are expected to grow about 3% for the full year. That's healthy, not exciting.
Here's why Singapore is hard to call a bubble: the government has more control over its property market than almost any country on Earth. Additional Buyer's Stamp Duty (ABSD) rates of 60% for foreign buyers effectively wall off speculative capital. The Total Debt Servicing Ratio (TDSR) caps borrowing. New supply is planned years in advance. This is the most engineered property market in the world.
The downside of this engineering: limited upside. You're not going to see 20% annual appreciation here. The government won't allow it.
For residents and PRs, Singapore property makes sense as a store of value with modest appreciation. Rental yields in suburban condos run 3.5-4.5%, competitive with the risk-free rate. Core Central Region properties yield less but appreciate more predictably.
For foreign investors paying 60% ABSD? The math doesn't work. Full stop. Look elsewhere unless you're planning permanent relocation.
Singapore residential does not make sense for most foreign investors at current entry costs. The 60% ABSD alone makes the risk-adjusted math unattractive. If ABSD policies soften or the market corrects 15-20%, the calculus changes.
Dubai: The Oversupply Question
Dubai is the market everyone has an opinion on. Let me add mine: it's a tale of two segments, and most analysis I see conflates them.
The numbers first. Over 110,000 new residential units are expected to be delivered in 2026 — roughly four times the 10-year average of 27,000. Around 86% of future supply is apartments, with 66% being studios and one-beds. Nearly 45% of under-construction stock is concentrated in just five districts: JVC/JVT, Dubai South, MBR City, Business Bay, and Dubailand.
Those five districts are where the oversupply risk is real. If you're buying a studio in JVC for speculative appreciation, you're competing with tens of thousands of identical units. I wouldn't touch it.
But the villa and townhouse segment? Structurally undersupplied. Dubai added over 200,000 residents in 2025 alone, implying demand for roughly 50,000 homes just from population growth. Family housing — villas, larger apartments in established communities — remains scarce relative to demand.
Recent developments have added uncertainty. The DFM Real Estate Index dropped 30% in April, driven by a sell-off in developer stocks like Emaar. Transaction volumes have slowed. Geopolitical tensions from the Hormuz situation are dampening sentiment.
My read: the correction in developer stocks is leading, not lagging, the physical market. On-ground transactions are slowing but haven't collapsed. If you're buying physical property in quality locations (Palm Jumeirah, Downtown, Emirates Hills, Arabian Ranches), the demand fundamentals remain solid.
I'd avoid off-plan purchases in mass-market segments. I'd consider completed, tenanted villas in established communities with proven rental demand. Cap rates of 5-7% in the villa segment are competitive with global alternatives, especially given Dubai's zero income tax advantage.
European Cities: Berlin, Warsaw, Lisbon
I follow three European cities closely, each for different reasons.
Berlin has been the consensus pick for European real estate investment for four years running, and I think the thesis is starting to get crowded. Prices rose about 3% in 2025 after two years of post-pandemic correction. Treptow-Kopenick led with 9% growth, Pankow and Reinickendorf at about 4%.
The fundamental case for Berlin is strong: Germany's largest city, massive housing shortage, regulated rents that paradoxically support prices by restricting new supply. But new construction has collapsed, and completions will decline further in 2026. That's bullish for existing owners, bearish for affordability and social stability.
My concern: Berlin's rental yield is among the lowest in Europe at roughly 3-3.5% gross. In a 4%+ interest rate environment, the carry is negative. You're betting entirely on price appreciation. That's fine in a falling rate environment — which I expect we'll get — but the timing is uncertain.
Warsaw is my favorite European market right now. It ranked third among the most attractive European cities for real estate investment in 2026, behind only London and Madrid. Office rents grew 9.1% year-over-year. Residential prices in major Polish cities are forecast to rise 3-8%.
Why Warsaw? Structural tailwinds: EU funds inflow, NATO spending, nearshoring from Western Europe, young educated workforce, and prices still 60-70% below comparable Western European cities. A quality apartment in central Warsaw costs a fraction of what you'd pay in Berlin or Munich for equivalent square footage.
The risk: Poland's political landscape is unpredictable, and currency risk (PLN) adds volatility for EUR or USD-based investors. I accept this risk because the yield spread compensates for it — rental yields of 5-6% gross in central Warsaw are meaningfully above Western European alternatives.
Lisbon has been a darling of global real estate investors for years, and I think the easy money has been made. The Golden Visa changes, rising local prices, and questions about sustainability of the tech hub narrative all give me pause.
That said, rental yields of nearly 5% remain competitive, and the quality-of-life arbitrage continues to attract remote workers and retirees. Lisbon's logistics sector grew 8.7% in prime rents, suggesting the commercial market is healthier than residential.
I'd watch Lisbon for a correction rather than buy at current levels. If prices pull back 10-15%, the yield math becomes compelling again.
US Commercial Real Estate: Opportunity Emerging from Wreckage
This is the most interesting — and most dangerous — market I follow.
Office loan delinquencies hit a record 12.34% in January 2026, the highest since tracking began in 2000. The "extend and pretend" strategy that banks used to delay reckoning is finally exhausting itself. In 2026, $1.8 trillion in commercial real estate loans are scheduled to mature — creating a refinancing wall that will force resolution.
Private US CRE values bottomed in Q4 2024, with office the last sector to trough in Q2 2025. The recovery is nascent and extremely uneven.
Here's how I categorize the segments:
Trophy office (Class A, top-tier markets): Recovering. Tenants are gravitating toward newer, amenity-rich buildings. Rents are rising for the best assets. This segment will be fine.
Commodity office (Class B/C, secondary markets): Structurally impaired. Remote work permanently destroyed demand for mediocre office space. Many of these buildings will be converted, demolished, or sold for pennies. Avoid.
Industrial/logistics: The clear winner. E-commerce, nearshoring, and supply chain resilience are driving demand. Cap rates are compressed, but the fundamentals justify the pricing.
Multifamily: Recovering from a temporary oversupply in Sunbelt markets. Long-term demand is strong given the single-family affordability crisis. I'm watching for opportunities in markets where new supply has peaked.
How I Evaluate Markets: The Framework
After buying property in multiple countries, I've developed a simple evaluation framework. Every market gets scored on five criteria:
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Demographics. Is population growing? Is the workforce young and educated? Growing cities have growing property demand. Simple.
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Cap rate vs. risk-free rate. If the property yields 4% and the 10-year Treasury yields 4.3%, the risk premium is negative. You need to believe in significant appreciation to justify the investment. I need at least 150-200 basis points of spread.
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Replacement cost gap. Am I buying below what it would cost to build new? If yes, I have a structural floor under my investment. Developers won't build new supply that competes with my asset at a lower price point.
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Infrastructure pipeline. New metro lines, highways, airports — these create value that gets capitalized into property prices. I track infrastructure announcements 3-5 years out.
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Regulatory risk. Rent controls, foreign buyer restrictions, tax changes — any of these can destroy returns overnight. I discount heavily for political risk and always consult local legal counsel before committing capital.
No market scores perfectly on all five. The art is in weighing the trade-offs and sizing appropriately. I'm comfortable concentrating in a market that scores 4 out of 5. If it scores 3 or below, I either pass or size the position as speculative.
Where the Opportunity Is Right Now
Right now, in order of conviction:
- Kyiv — selective entry on units still below replacement cost
- Warsaw — residential accumulation, worth looking at small commercial too
- US multifamily — watching for Sunbelt market corrections, not acting yet
- Berlin — existing holdings justified, adding at current yields not compelling
- Dubai villas — interesting but waiting for the current correction to deepen
Real estate is a local business. Global analysis gives you the map, but local knowledge gives you the edge. Every serious position requires boots on the ground, meetings with local agents, and conversations with people who actually live there. Spreadsheets alone will never give you enough information to commit capital confidently.