Monday's records were a gift from geopolitics. Tuesday and Wednesday belong to the Fed. The FOMC meets June 16–17 with the fed funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% and inflation still running hot — non-seasonally-adjusted CPI hit 3.8% annually, the highest since 2023. The peace deal helped the inflation narrative; it didn't end it.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Fed funds rate | 3.50%–3.75% |
| FOMC meeting | June 16–17 |
| Latest CPI | 3.8% annual |
| Consensus | Hold expected |
Why it moved
Falling oil is exactly the kind of disinflationary impulse the Fed wants to see, and it's why bond yields eased into the meeting. But one weekend of cheaper crude does not undo months of sticky core inflation, and a Reuters poll of economists already leans toward the Fed holding rates through 2026. The market is essentially betting that the peace deal nudges the Fed dovish at the margin — that lower energy prices give Powell room to sound a little less restrictive. That's a hopeful bet layered on top of a record close, not a confirmed shift in policy.
What it means for you
This is the hinge of the whole week. A neutral-to-dovish Powell validates the rally and the lower-yield, higher-multiple regime that powered the Nasdaq. A hawkish hold — "we're encouraged but data-dependent" — and the rate-sensitive winners give back fast, with growth and metals leading the unwind. Ruslan Averin's stance: don't add aggressively into a two-day Fed meeting right after a record. Let the statement, the dot plot, and the press conference speak before you commit fresh capital to a tape that just front-ran the disinflation it's hoping for.
Bottom line: The peace deal lit the rally, but the Fed decides whether it burns — and after a record close, I'd rather react to Powell than front-run him.