Renault closed at €27.23 on June 17, down 2.1% and just above its 52-week low of €26.34 — a roughly 30% decline on the year. The damage traces to a new CEO's strategic reset: François Provost's "futuREady" plan cut margin and free-cash-flow targets, reintegrated the Ampere EV unit (scrapping a planned ~€10 billion IPO), and booked a ~€9.5 billion write-down tied to a Nissan-stake accounting change, which pushed trailing income deep into the red.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Close (Jun 17 2026) | €27.23 (-2.1%) |
| 52-week range | €26.34 – €41.91 |
| Trailing P/E | N/A (Nissan write-down) |
| Dividend / target | ~7.9% / ~€45.7 (Hold) |
The bull case
Much of the bad news is non-cash and arguably one-time: the €9.5 billion Nissan write-down is an accounting reset, not a cash outflow, and a new CEO lowering the bar early is the classic setup for future beats. The dividend yields ~7.9%, the stock sits at a 52-week low, and the average analyst target near €45 implies large upside if "futuREady" delivers. Owning the core Renault business, ex-Nissan noise, may be cheaper than it looks.
The bear case
Cut targets and a killed IPO are management admitting the prior plan failed, and turnarounds under new leadership take years to prove. Trailing earnings are negative, the Nissan entanglement remains a drag, and a ~30% drawdown can always extend when the strategy is still on paper. The 7.9% yield, like others in this sector, must be re-underwritten against falling profitability.
My verdict
This is an avoid-to-speculative — a "show me" story. The contrarian case is real, but I don't buy reset plans on day one; I wait for evidence the new targets are being hit. As Ruslan Averin, I'd keep this on the watchlist and only nibble near the €26 low with small size, treating the dividend as a bonus rather than the thesis. Let Provost put up a quarter or two first.
Bottom line: Renault's €9.5B write-down may be mostly accounting, but a brand-new turnaround plan is a "show me" — I'd watch from the sidelines near €27 and let the numbers prove the story.