S&P at 7,108. VIX at 18.92. Ten-year yield at 4.30%. Gold at $4,689. Brent crude near $100. DXY at 98.57.
That is the scoreboard. Here is what matters.
Earnings: Better Than Expected
Q1 2026 earnings season is 10% complete. The numbers are good — 88% of reporters have beaten EPS estimates, well above the 78% five-year average. Blended earnings growth is running at 13.2%, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth.
Sector leaders: Information Technology (+45%), Materials (+24%), Financials (+15%). The laggard: Healthcare (-9.8%), dragged down by Merck's acquisition charge. Exclude Merck and healthcare is actually growing 2.8%.
The real test comes next week. Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta all report April 30 — the same day as the FOMC decision. Four mega-caps and a Fed meeting on the same afternoon. It will be a volatile evening.
Tesla: Beat on EPS, Missed on Revenue
Tesla reported Tuesday after the close. Q1 EPS came in at $0.41 adjusted versus $0.37 expected — a clean beat. Revenue missed. The stock popped 4% in extended trading, then gave it all back when management guided capex $5 billion above prior guidance.
I do not have a position in Tesla. The stock trades on sentiment and narrative, not fundamentals. But the capex guidance is interesting — it signals aggressive spending on AI infrastructure and energy storage. Whether that spending generates returns is the multi-year question.
Bonds and the Dollar
Ten-year at 4.30% is the story. Treasury volatility has surged as the curve un-inverts. Bond ETFs are back in fashion — TLT saw its largest weekly inflow since January.
The dollar continues to weaken. DXY at 98.57 is the lowest since early 2024. A weak dollar supports US corporate earnings through translation tailwinds, lifts commodity prices, and eases financial conditions for emerging markets. I remain positioned for continued dollar weakness through EM equity exposure and gold.
Gold Above $4,700
Gold pulled back from recent highs but holds above $4,700. The drivers are unchanged: central bank buying from China, India, Poland, and Turkey; de-dollarization flows; and the Iran risk premium. JPMorgan forecasts $5,055 by Q4 2026.
I hold 8% in gold. Not adding here but not trimming either.
What I Did This Week
Sold the AAPL $195P and MSFT $390P described in my Q2 options playbook. Both are positioned ahead of next week's earnings. If the stocks drop on results, I buy quality at a discount. If they hold, I keep the premium.
Rolled my SPY June puts from $670 down to $650 — cheaper protection, slightly more out-of-the-money. The Iran ceasefire expiration this week made me want to maintain coverage despite the lower VIX.
No changes to core equity positions. Holding European defense names, TSMC, and US banks.
Next Week
All eyes on April 30: FOMC decision plus Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon earnings after the close. Apple follows May 1. This is the week that sets the tone for the rest of Q2.
I am positioned, hedged, and watching.