Markets··7 min
Markets at All-Time Highs While Institutions Price a 49% Correction Chance: Both Are Right
S&P 500 hit ATH 7,230 on April 30. EPS beat rate 84%, blended growth +27.1%. Both bulls and bears have a case — here is how I read it.
Markets+Options
Markets
Notes on equities, options strategies, and market analysis.
24 entries
Markets
10
Markets··7 minSPX Recovery and VIX Compression After Tariff Shock: Reading the Signals for May 2026
SPX bounced 12% from April lows, VIX fell to 22. Here's what the numbers tell us about May.
Markets··5 minGDP at 0.5%, Oil Above $100, a New Fed Chair: My Q2 2026 Read
Q1 GDP at 0.5%, Brent above $107 with Hormuz closed, Fed chair transition — three shocks converging. Here's what I'm watching and where I'm positioned.
Markets··6 minDXY Below 98: The Quiet Trade That's Beating Everything in 2026
DXY below 98.4 for the first time since 2022 changes everything — I trimmed USD cash 8 points and redeployed into gold, EM equities, and commodity multinationals.
Markets··8 minBond Market 2026: The Best Opportunity in a Decade?
With the Fed on hold at 3.50-3.75% and 10-year yields above 4.3%, bonds are offering the best risk-adjusted entry I've seen since 2013.
Markets··7 minGold, Oil, and the Dollar: Commodities Outlook for 2026
Gold at $4,800, Brent above $100, and the dollar weakening — how commodities fit into my portfolio and what I'm doing about it.
- Markets··10 min
US Markets Q2 2026: Where I'm Looking and Why
S&P at 7,137 with a forward P/E of 21.4x. Sector rotation is real, energy is leading, and the Fed is on hold. Here's where I'm deploying capital.
Markets··9 minAI Stocks in 2026: Bubble or Just Getting Started?
NVIDIA at 22x forward, $690B in hyperscaler capex, and everyone screaming 'dot-com 2.0.' Here's why they're mostly wrong — and partially right.
Markets··8 minEuropean Markets: The Contrarian Case for EU Equities
The DAX at 17x earnings while the S&P trades at 21x. European defense spending is booming, banks are flush, and nobody in the US is paying attention. That's exactly why I'm buying.
Markets··10 minGeopolitics and Markets: What Traders Actually Need to Watch in 2026
Wars, tariffs, elections, oil blockades — the geopolitical risk menu is the thickest I have seen in my career, and most investors are pricing almost none of it.
Options
14
Options··7 minVIX at 17, SKEW at 141, NVDA Earnings on May 20: My Options Playbook for May 2026
VIX is 17 but SKEW is at 141 — institutional tail hedging is elevated. NVDA earnings May 20. Here are the three trades I am setting up this month.
Options··7 minSMCI Options Before May 5 Earnings: IV at 70% vs 159% Realized Vol
SMCI options before May 5 earnings: implied volatility at 70% vs 159% realized — a rare setup where options are priced too cheap for actual moves.
Options··8 minNVIDIA Covered Call at $250: Collecting $10.50 in May When IV Peaks
I sold the May $250 covered call for $10.50 per share with IV at 31%. Effective cost basis: $216.90. Target: either 9.9% return at assignment or keep shares if NVIDIA stays below strike.
- Options··7 min
NVDA Options Before Earnings: Vol Positioning as IV Compresses to 17.8%
VIX at 17.8 after six weeks of compression. NVDA earnings May 21. The pre-earnings vol expansion window is open — here is the setup.
Options··5 minThe Perfect Storm for Premium Sellers: VIX 18, Mega Earnings, and a Fed on Hold
Four mega-cap earnings in one week, a Fed decision, and a GDP shock — all while VIX sits at 18. I'm not guessing direction. I'm collecting premium.
Options··5 minI Paid $18 to Own Both Sides of Microsoft Earnings
Positioned a $412 straddle before MSFT earnings (April 30) for $18.40 per contract, betting on Azure growth re-acceleration or guidance disappointment.
Options··5 minApple's China Sales Fell 11%. I'm Still Getting Paid on My Shares.
Sold covered calls on AAPL at $204.80, capping upside at $210 while hedging against a worse-than-consensus China earnings miss.
Options··5 minMarkets Are Calm. I Just Paid $24 to Disagree.
VIX at 14.8 with SPX at 5,420 pricing in a Goldilocks scenario—no cuts, no hikes. I bought a June SPX put spread ($24 debit) to hedge equity book tail risk. Thesis: FOMC language around tariff inflation and May jobs data will force repricing.
Options··5 minCaterpillar (CAT): Covered Call Against an All-Time High
CAT hit a new all-time high of $845 on April 23. I was positioned long at $824 with a covered call at $840 — capped upside, but 3.1% in five sessions is exactly what the structure was designed to deliver.
Options··5 minHoneywell (HON): Fading the Beat When the Guidance Tells You More
HON beat Q1 EPS by $0.13 but missed revenue and guided Q2 below consensus. I opened a bear put spread at $215/$205 after the initial reaction faded. Sometimes the guidance is the only number that matters.
Options··5 minExxonMobil (XOM): A Covered Call at Range Resistance When Crude Was Indecisive
XOM had been capped at $150 for several sessions while crude stayed indecisive. I entered at $146.80, sold the $150 covered call at $1.80, and closed the full position at $150.40 — a 3.34% net return with defined downside.
Options··5 minDiamondback Energy (FANG): Selling Premium While the Catalyst Calendar Is Light
FANG was $10 below its March high with no near-term catalysts in sight. I bought at $191.80 and sold the $195 call at $3.80 — the call expired worthless at Friday's $194.80 close, delivering 3.55% including premium.
Options··8 minMy Options Playbook for Q2 2026
VIX at 19, Iran war premiums elevated, earnings season in full swing — here is exactly what I am running and why.
Options··6 minOptions as Insurance, Not Gambling
Most retail traders use options to speculate. I use them to sleep at night.