Fed Interest Rates 2026: FOMC May Preview and Rate Decision
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will convene on June 16-17, 2026. This meeting arrives at a critical juncture when economic signals are sending mixed messages about inflation, growth, and labor market resilience.
Update, 15 October 2026: what the Fed did
The June meeting this preview looked ahead to ended in the base case. On 17 June the FOMC held the target range at 3.50–3.75% by a 12–0 vote, the first meeting under Kevin Warsh, chair since 22 May. The surprise cut, priced at 28% when this was written, did not happen.
The April meeting had already shown the split. The Committee held 8–4: Stephen Miran wanted a cut, while Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari and Lorie Logan supported the hold but objected to the statement's easing bias. In July the Fed held again, 9–3, with the same three voting for a hike. On 16 September it raised the range by a quarter point to 3.75–4.00%, 12–0, the first increase since July 2023.
| Meeting | Decision | Vote |
|---|---|---|
| 28–29 April | Hold at 3.50–3.75% | 8–4 |
| 16–17 June | Hold at 3.50–3.75% | 12–0 |
| 28–29 July | Hold at 3.50–3.75% | 9–3 |
| 15–16 September | Hike to 3.75–4.00% | 12–0 |
The energy shock turned the debate from cuts to hikes. September CPI, published on 14 October, was 3.7%, with core at 2.6%. The September dot plot put the median for the end of 2026 at 4.1%, and 16 of 18 participants projected at least one more hike this year. The next decision is due on 28 October; CME FedWatch put the chance of another hike at 41.5% after the CPI report. Details are in the report on the 16 September decision and the October outlook.
Current Rate and Probabilities
The federal funds rate currently sits at 3.50-3.75%, held at the April 28-29, 2026 meeting. According to CME FedWatch metrics:
- Hold: 70% probability
- Cut: 28% probability
- Hike: 2% probability
This distribution shifts market focus to uncertainty about the rate trajectory in the second half of the year.
Economic Signals
GDP and Growth
GDPNow Q1 data shows weak growth of approximately 1.2%, significantly below the market consensus of 2-3%. This scenario raises the probability that the Fed will start considering monetary easing if further slowing occurs.
Labor Market
The March employment report showed modest growth of 178,000 jobs. The unemployment rate remained at 4.3%, but labor force participation declined. These trends indicate cooling labor demand, which may prompt the Fed to consider a more accommodative stance.
Inflation
Core PCE remains stubbornly elevated despite the Fed's efforts. Additionally, energy prices remain high due to Middle East instability, adding upward pressure to the inflation trajectory.
Three Scenarios for June
Scenario 1: Hold (70% probability)
The base case assumes the Fed will maintain rates at current levels. This approach allows the committee to gather more data on the inflation and labor market trajectory before making a cut decision.
Scenario 2: Surprise Cut (28% probability)
If economic data shows a sharper slowdown than expected, the Fed may consider an earlier rate cut. This would signal to markets that the tightening cycle is ending faster than projected.
Scenario 3: Hawkish Hold (2% probability)
The least likely outcome—if inflation suddenly rises or labor market data shows unexpected strength, the Fed could maintain a more aggressive stance.
Takeaways for Investors
For the June 2026 meeting, we anticipate the Fed will hold rates. The probability of a hike is very low, while a cut is possible but not the base case.
Rate cuts are unlikely before late 2026, unless the economic situation deteriorates significantly. Investors should focus on growth and inflation data ahead of the meeting, as these carry strong influence over the Fed's decision.
Prepare for potential volatility on June 16-17 as markets process Fed communications and projections for rates through 2026-2027.
— Ruslan Averin