Hello Group owns Momo and Tantan, two of the largest social discovery apps in China. The stock trades at $5.86, or 9.1 times trailing earnings and 5.8 times forward. It yields 4.78%. Trailing revenue is $1.48 billion against a market capitalisation of $865.8 million.
That is a company valued at well under one times sales, paying you nearly 5% to hold it. There is a reason, and the reason is that the business is contracting.
The numbers
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Share price | $5.86 |
| Market cap | $865.8M |
| P/E trailing / forward | 9.1 / 5.8 |
| Revenue TTM | $1.48B, −2.8% |
| Dividend yield | 4.78% ($0.28) |
| 52-week range | $5.32 – $8.59 |
| Beta | 0.55 |
Q1 2026 net revenue fell 5.3% year over year to RMB2,386.0 million ($345.9 million), with weakness at both Momo and Tantan. Net income declined to RMB291.5 million ($42.3 million) from RMB358.5 million, partly on lower interest income and smaller equity-method gains. Management guides full-year domestic revenue down low- to mid-teens percent, with group revenue flat to slightly down.
Where the money actually comes from
This is not a subscription business wearing Chinese clothing. Revenue is dominated by value-added services — virtual gifts, live streaming, paid interactions. That distinction matters twice over.
It is more cyclical than subscription revenue, because discretionary gifting tracks consumer confidence closely. And it is more exposed to regulation, because live streaming and virtual gifting have repeatedly drawn Chinese regulatory attention in a way that a monthly dating subscription has not.
So the domestic decline is not purely a product failure. It is a soft consumer plus a category that regulators watch.
The capital return is doing the work
The company has repurchased 63.7 million ADSs for $399.5 million cumulatively, and 14.46 million shares for $99.78 million between April 2025 and March 2026. It paid a $0.28 special dividend per ADS.
Against a market cap of $866 million, cumulative buybacks approaching $400 million are not cosmetic. A shrinking company that retires shares faster than revenue falls still grows earnings per share. That is the entire mechanism holding this stock up, and it is a legitimate one — provided management keeps choosing it over empire-building.
Seven analysts rate it Strong Buy with an average target of $8.64. Next earnings land on 8 September 2026.
How I read it
Three things have to be true at once for this to work, and they are independent risks.
The overseas products have to matter. SoulChill, Yaha Live and the rest are the only growth in the story. If international revenue cannot outrun a domestic base falling low-to-mid teens, group revenue keeps sliding and the cheap multiple stays cheap forever.
The buyback has to continue at scale. The EPS support is mechanical; remove it and you own a declining asset with a yield.
The ADR discount has to not widen. This is the risk you cannot model. Chinese ADRs carry a permanent governance and delisting discount, and it moves on politics rather than earnings. A beta of 0.55 tells you the stock does not track US equities — it tracks a different set of fears entirely.
My honest read: at 5.8 times forward earnings with a 4.8% yield and a third of the market cap already bought back, the price compensates you for a lot of decline. It does not compensate you for a policy shock, and no price does. This is a position sized as an emerging-market value bet, not as a dating-sector holding — the fact that it happens to own dating apps is close to incidental to how the stock actually trades.