News··6 min read

Nvidia Beat Everything and Gave Half of It Back

Price · 12MYahoo Finance ↗

Nvidia reported $96.2 billion of revenue for the quarter ended 26 July — up 18% sequentially and 106% from a year ago. Data Center alone did $89.0 billion, up 117%.

Gross margin came in at 75.0% on both a GAAP and non-GAAP basis. Non-GAAP earnings were $2.22 a share against a $2.09 consensus. Guidance for the current quarter is $108.0 billion, an $11.8 billion step up in a single quarter.

On the call Jensen Huang forecast roughly 70% revenue growth for fiscal 2028, far above what analysts had modelled.

The stock rose 8.7% on Thursday to $227.98. On Friday it fell 4.6% to $217.55.

The week around the print

DayNVDA closeMove
Mon 24 Aug$208.48−2.9%
Tue 25 Aug$213.05+2.2%
Wed 26 Aug (report)$209.66−1.6%
Thu 27 Aug$227.98+8.7%
Fri 28 Aug$217.55−4.6%

Monday was a de-risking session across the whole complex: Micron fell 5.8%, Sandisk 6.5%, the iShares Semiconductor ETF 2.7%. Nineteen of the twenty biggest winners of 2026 closed lower that day. Nobody wanted to hold the sector into the print.

Across the full week, the stock that beat on every line finished at $217.55 against $214.72 the previous Friday. A blowout quarter, a raised long-term forecast, and 1.3% to show for it.

What the fade was actually about

It was not the numbers. Nothing in the release disappointed.

Friday was the day Warsh spoke at Jackson Hole and September rate-hike odds moved from about a third to a coin flip. Nvidia is the longest-duration large cap in the index: most of the value in the price sits in cash flows dated 2029 and beyond. Raise the rate at which those are discounted and the price falls, no matter what this quarter printed.

That is the whole mechanism. A 70% growth forecast for fiscal 2028 is worth a great deal less at 4.30% on the 2-year than it was at 4.24%.

The number I would keep an eye on

Data Center is now 92% of sales. That is not a diversified semiconductor company; it is one product ramp with a listing.

The ramp is real — Blackwell Ultra is what drove the 117% — and while hyperscaler capex keeps accelerating, concentration reads as focus. It reads differently on the first quarter that capex plans get trimmed, and Nvidia's customers are funding that capex with borrowed money at a moment when the cost of borrowing is being repriced upward.

How I read it

This print settles the demand question and leaves the valuation question wide open. Anyone waiting for the AI trade to break on weak orders got the opposite answer: orders accelerated.

But a stock that gives back more than half an 8.7% move in the next session is telling you where the marginal buyer's uncertainty now lives. It has moved off the income statement and onto the discount rate — and the discount rate is the one variable Jensen Huang cannot guide.

What I would watch: the next print from a hyperscaler on capex intentions. Nvidia's revenue is their capital budget. If a September hike lands and one of them signals restraint, $108 billion of quarterly guidance becomes a much harder number to underwrite.

Frequently asked questions

What did Nvidia report for Q2 fiscal 2027?
Revenue of $96.2 billion for the quarter ended 26 July 2026, up 18% sequentially and 106% year on year. Data Center revenue was $89.0 billion, up 117%. GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins were both 75.0%, and non-GAAP earnings were $2.22 per diluted share against a $2.09 consensus.
What is the guidance?
Q3 revenue guidance of $108.0 billion, an $11.8 billion sequential step. On the call Jensen Huang forecast roughly 70% revenue growth for fiscal 2028, well above prior analyst projections.
Why did the stock fall the day after?
It rose 8.7% to $227.98 on Thursday, then fell 4.6% to $217.55 on Friday as Fed chairman Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech pushed September rate-hike odds to 45.7%. The reversal was about the discount rate, not about demand.
How concentrated is Nvidia's business?
Data Center now accounts for 92% of total sales. The other four segments combined are a rounding error against a single product ramp, which is the structural risk the multiple has to carry.

Ruslan Averin is an independent investor and market analyst, author of averin.com, publishing market research since 2014.

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Ruslan AverinInvestor & Market Analyst

Writes on capital allocation, risk, and market structure.