S&P 7.108. VIX 18,92. Sepuluh-tahun yield 4,30%. Gold $4.689. Brent crude near $100. DXY 98,57.
Itu adalah scoreboard. Berikut apa penting.
Earnings: Lebih Baik Daripada Expected
Q1 2026 earnings season 10% complete. Angka baik — 88% reporters beat EPS estimates, well di atas 78% five-year rata-rata. Blended earnings growth running 13,2%, marking enam consecutive quarter double-digit growth.
Sector leaders: Information Technology (+45%), Materials (+24%), Financials (+15%). Laggard: Healthcare (-9,8%), dragged down Merck's acquisition charge. Exclude Merck healthcare actually growing 2,8%.
Real test comes next minggu. Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta semua report 30 April — same day FOMC decision. Empat mega-caps Fed meeting same afternoon. Itu akan volatile evening.
Tesla: Beat EPS, Missed Revenue
Tesla reported Tuesday setelah close. Q1 EPS $0,41 adjusted versus $0,37 expected — clean beat. Revenue missed. Stock popped 4% extended trading, kemudian gave kembali roughly setengah gains ketika pembukaan.
Saya tidak punya posisi Tesla. Stock trades sentiment narrative, bukan fundamentals. Tetapi capex guidance menarik — signals aggressive spending AI infrastructure energy storage. Whether spending itu generates returns adalah multi-tahun pertanyaan.
Bonds Dollar
Sepuluh-tahun 4,30% adalah story. Treasury volatility surged sebagai curve un-inverts. Bond ETFs kembali fashion — TLT melihat largest weekly inflow sejak Januari.
Dollar terus melemah. DXY 98,57 adalah lowest sejak early 2024. Weak dollar supports US corporate earnings melalui translation tailwinds, lifts commodity prices, eases financial conditions emerging markets. Saya remain positioned continued dollar weakness melalui EM equity exposure gold.
Gold Di Atas $4.700
Gold pulled kembali dari recent highs tetapi holds di atas $4.700. Driver tidak berubah: central bank buying dari China, India, Poland, Turkey; de-dollarization flows; Iran risk premium. JPMorgan forecasts $5.055 oleh Q4 2026.
Saya hold 8% gold. Bukan adding sini tetapi bukan trimming juga.
Apa Saya Lakukan Minggu Ini
Sold AAPL $195P MSFT $390P described dalam Q2 options playbook. Kedua positioned sebelum next minggu earnings. Jika stocks drop results, saya beli quality diskon. Jika hold, saya keep premium.
Rolled SPY June puts dari $670 turun $650 — cheaper protection, slightly lebih out-of-the-money. Iran ceasefire expiration minggu ini made saya ingin maintain coverage terlepas lower VIX.
Tidak ada changes core equity posisi. Holding European defense names, TSMC, US banks.
Next Minggu
All eyes pada 30 April: FOMC decision plus Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon earnings setelah close. Apple follows 1 Mei. Ini adalah minggu yang set tone rest Q2.
Saya positioned, hedged, watching.
— Analisis oleh tim averin.com