Trade for over decade through geopolitical crisis। 2014 Crimea annexation 2018〜19 trade war COVID full-scale Russian invasion Ukraine now 2026 Iran war। Every single follow same pattern：panic overreaction opportunity normalization।
Difference 2026 that multiple crisis run simultaneously। That create correlation spike hedging complexity——for those paying attention——asymmetric opportunity।
Actually watch what ignore where put capital।
US-China：Slow Grind
After Supreme Court rule February 2026 that President cannot use IEEPA impose tariff Trump admin pivot Section 301 investigation target China Vietnam Taiwan Mexico Japan EU। China Ministry Commerce launch retaliatory investigation March।
Effective tariff rate on Chinese good sit 31.6%। Trump-Xi summit schedule May 14〜15 Beijing will determine whether escalate stabilize।
What most get wrong about trade war：trade headline instead of data। Every tariff announce create 1〜3 day sell-off। Every「deal close」leak create 1〜3 day rally। Net effect on S&P over any 6-month window approximately zero।
What actually matter structural reshoring trend। Company move supply chain out China——not because tariff लेकिन because geopolitical risk। This multi-decade theme benefit Mexico India Vietnam specific industrial sector US। Own position all four।
— averin.comチームによる分析