常にコモディティを正直な資産クラスとして考える。株は buybacks で操作され得る、不動産は zoning laws で、債は central banks で。しかし、バレル oilは barrel oil。供給が需要を meet、価格は truth を tell。
2026 年4月で私のポートフォリオに最重要 3 つのコモディティの read これは。
ゴールド：$4,800 かつ still not done
ゴールド は $4,800/oz 周辺取引。1年前は near $2,700。That about 78% 12 か月のリターン。年に2年前言ったら gold は flirt $5,000 で、skeptical would been。No longer。
ドライバーは structural not speculative：
Central bank buying。 グローバル central bank buy 約 585 tonne per quarter——over 2,300 tonne annualized、well historical norm。China、India、Turkey、いくつかの EM central banks are systematically diversify reserves away from US ドル assets。This トレードではなく。This strategic reallocate は year for continue。
Geopolitical premium। Strait of Hormuz crisis、ongoing ラッシュ Eastern Europe、より広い great-power competition have gold make ultimate safe haven again। When 20% global oilサプライ threatened は military action by、investor reach asset でカウンターparty リスク。
Real rate। FF rate で 3.50〜3.75% inflation run 2.5% で、real rate は 約 1〜1.25%। That positive traditionally head wind golod। しかし central bank volume と institutional demand の sheer have overwhelmed real rate signal। This tell me something deeper shift は in how world price safety।
Is gold overbought？ Historical 基準で、absolutely। Gold trade multiple of 200-day moving average we haven't seen since early 1980s। 15〜20% correction be entirely normal healthy।
しかし，I'm not selling। Structural force——dedollarization、geopolitical fragmentation、central bank reserve diversification——are multi-year theme। Correction buying 機会、exit reason not।
ホールド：IAU（iShares Gold Trust）as core gold position। IAU choose GLD than for one reason：lower expense ratio（0.25% vs 0.40%）। Multi-year holding period上で، that 15-basis-point difference compound meaningfully। IAU trailing twelve month में 49% return up， slightly outperform GLD due fee advantage।
Position size：total portfolio के 5%। Added at $3,200 late 2025 haven't trimmed। Target adding any pullback below $4,200। Won't chase above $5,000।
ऑयल：The Hormuz Premium
Brent crude $101/bbl में। WTI around $92। These crisis price، driven specific event：de facto closure Strait Hormuz following military action 28 February 2026 को।
Let separate signal noise from।
EIA forecast Brent peak around $115 Q2 2026 में before gradually fall average $88 Q4 में। Brent-WTI spread blown out to $15 reflect physical disruption Asian-bound crude flow। Demand destruction 4〜5 million barrel/day——about 5% global supply——is already occurring with Asia most affected।
यह supply shock not demand story। Underlying demand for oil remain healthy। Changed risk premium का transit through world most critical chokepoint।
OPEC+ in complicated position। Spare capacity have partially offset disruption को but release करना would undermine pricing power once crisis resolve। Threading needle between short-term stability long-term revenue maximization।
Base case：Hormuz situation resolve within 6〜9 months। When it does Brent drop back to $75〜85——still elevated by historical standard but below current crisis premium। Risk मेरे base case to：escalation। If military situation deteriorate further $130+ oil table on है।
What I'm doing：No direct oil position hold（no USO no futures）। Oil too volatile geopolitically driven für me hold as core position। Instead I own energy equity——major like Exxon Chevron benefit high oil prices but also diversified revenue streams dividend support if price fall।
Energy about 6% my equity allocation। Not adding current level because crisis premium already price। If oil pull below $80 ceasefire or diplomatic resolution चलो add करूं energy equity position में।
डॉलर：Weakening but Not Collapsing
DXY at 98.5 notable। Year ago around 99.3 था। Dollar weaken about 0.8% trade-weighted basis——modest isolation में लेकिन significant given safe-haven flow कि Hormuz crisis theoretically support करना चाहिए।
Think what happening：market start price करने structural shift में dollar demand। Central bank reserve diversification——same trend drive gold——is gradually reduce marginal buyer of US Treasury। Twin deficit widen। Weaponization of dollar through sanction over last decade give foreign government strong incentive find alternative।
Think dollar about collapse।「Death dollar」narrative wrong 50 year के लिए रहा and lack credible alternative（euro？yuan？bitcoin？）mean dollar retain structural privilege।
लेकिन direction travel clear：dollar share of global reserve continue slow decline and DXY trend lower over next 3〜5 year। This good for US equity（cheaper dollar help export), good for gold（price dollar में), good for EM asset（dollar weakness ease EM financial condition)।
Market price zero rate cut for 2026, with 26% chance 25-basis-point cut December में। If economy weaken FRB pivot toward ease, dollar could fall more sharply। That tail risk I position benefit from through my gold EM equity।
— averin.comチームによる分析