Deep dives into markets, strategies, and investment theses.
NATO set a 5% GDP defense target. EU committed €800B. Rheinmetall is up just 3.4% YTD while BAE is +23%. Here is why the divergence is a setup.
Gold fell from $5,589 ATH to ~$4,600. Central banks are still buying. The dollar is at 3-year lows. Why is gold down? The correlation broke.
Hyperscalers commit $725B to AI in 2026. NBER finds 90% of firms report zero productivity gain. Is this the largest misallocation in history — or early cycle?
Powell's last FOMC: 8-4 dissent, core PCE at 3.2%. Kevin Warsh believes tariffs aren't inflationary and AI is deflationary. Here is why that matters.
Hormuz closed March 4. Brent hit $126, now $108-116. XLE up 35% YTD. Permian rig count at 4-year lows. Here is what energy markets are actually pricing.
IBKR stock consolidates 3% below all-time high. Volatility drives revenue, RSI has room, 14 analysts rate Buy. Entry $118–124, target $132.
UNH stock crashed 40% then recovered 35%. RSI cooling and CEO transition managed — the $312–340 zone is our structural entry target.
EL stock trades at $79 vs GF fair value of $106. Q1 beat sent shares up 11.5% in one session. The bottoming pattern is forming — entry $72–80.
FSLR stock hit record $1B quarterly revenue and broke out 7.1% on earnings. Only US CdTe panel maker — immune to tariffs. Target $238.
UPS stock yields 6.1% and institutional buyers ran 4:1 in Q1 2026. Down 45% from peak, the $117–124 buy zone offers asymmetric upside in logistics.
BNTX stock broke above 200-day MA. With 47 oncology programs and $10B cash, the market still prices it as a COVID play — that gap is the trade.
SLB stock flashed 26/26 bullish technical signals and is up 41% YTD. Citi and UBS target $68–69. The cleanest chart in the entire oil sector.
HAL stock surged 7% on Q1 beat and broke key resistance the same session. 17 analyst Buy ratings. Entry zone $38–41, target $48.
BKR stock isn't just oilfield — it builds LNG turbines for AI data centers. Susquehanna raised target to $80. Buy zone $62–66.
CAT stock posted a 19% EPS beat and hit all-time highs in Q1 2026. ChartMill 10/10 technical rating. Bull case to $935–1000 backed by AI infrastructure.
EMR stock power control orders grew 74% YoY with a 1.7GW AI data center contract. Q2 earnings May 5. Buy zone $138–143.
BMW delivered 565,748 cars in Q1 2026. The stock is down 25% YTD. Three simultaneous pressures explain both numbers.
Boeing Q1 2026 earnings beat consensus by $0.55 on EPS. Cash burn narrowed from -$1.6B to -$179M. The inflection trade is becoming real — with three caveats.
Berkshire spent $266M buying ULTA Beauty in 2024, then exited before a 40% rally. Now at $607 with double-digit EPS guidance, is this the setup they abandoned?
American Airlines beat Q1 2026 EPS consensus by $0.53 on record loyalty revenue. Management then withdrew annual guidance, citing macro and tariff uncertainty.
Azure accelerates to 35% YoY growth; Copilot seats hit 20M+. Our analysts assess what $80B capex signals for AI dominance.
Alphabet Q1 2026 earnings analysis: $90.2B revenue, $2.81 EPS vs $2.01 expected, Google Cloud +28% YoY, $70B buyback announced.
Pfizer trades near its lows while quietly rebuilding through oncology, Seagen integration, and a 6.5% yield that keeps the question alive: value trap or slow-burn recovery?
PBF Energy is a pure-play independent refiner trading below book, a cyclical thermometer for the American fuel economy that the market prefers to ignore until crack spreads move.
PANW is executing a difficult strategic pivot toward full-stack security while trading at 20x revenue. The RPO-to-revenue gap is the single metric that decides whether the thesis holds.
OXY is a leveraged bet on domestic shale longevity wrapped inside a chemicals-and-midstream chassis. The CrownRock acquisition reshaped the balance sheet. What matters now is whether deleveraging stays on schedule.
Thirty years of dividend growth, 15,000+ properties, a 5.7% yield trading at 13x AFFO versus a historical 18–20x. Realty Income is not a growth story — it is a compounding income instrument, and the compounding only works with patience.
Is Dubai property still a buy? I run through supply, demand, and cycle positioning.
Iron condors on SPX index — my full setup, management rules, and real results.
EM equities are cheap vs. US by almost any metric. Here's my thesis.