Deep dives into markets, strategies, and investment theses.
National Bank of Ukraine hikes to 16.5%, Fed holds at 3.75–4.00%, ECB at 2.50%: what the 28–29 October decisions mean for hryvnia, deposits and the dollar.
Fed and ECB decisions on 28–29 October 2026: hike odds about 10% and 5.3%, CPI 3.7%, euro inflation 3.8%. Scenarios for the dollar, euro and hryvnia.
Anthropic IPO at about $2 trillion: 2.1x the $965B Series H, Q3 revenue $16.8B, Nasdaq listing reported for November. What it means for markets.
Dollar to hryvnia forecast: UAH 45.53 on 30 October 2026 after a record 45.60; NBU hiked to 16.5%. ICU sees 45.8 at end-2026, about 49 at end-2027.
Deposit rates in Ukraine on 30 October: UIRD 14.29% for 12 months, 11.00% after 23% tax; best banks 17%, NBU 16.5%, OVDP 14.94% tax-free.
Dollar forecast for Ukraine: ICU sees UAH 45.8 at end-2026 and 49.2 at end-2027, inflation 12%, GDP down. What it means for deposits, OVDP and dollars.
Will the Fed raise rates in October 2026? CPI hit 3.7%, core 2.6%, and FedWatch hike odds jumped to 41.5%. The 28 October FOMC, yields and mortgages.
Power outage schedules winter 2026: Kyiv per-building schedules, 3–8 hours in Kyiv region. Generator UAH 143/hour on A-95 vs UAH 4.80/kWh battery.
Ukraine inflation September 2026: 10.0% y/y, 2.1% m/m, core 8.8%. After 23% tax, deposits barely beat it; OVDP pay 15.14%. NBU decides on 29 October.
VAT refunds frozen in Ukraine: UAH 18bn halted, UAH 46bn stuck in treasury, $27bn still due from partners. What it means for exporters, hryvnia and OVDP.
US CPI September 2026: 3.7% vs 3.6% expected, core 0.3% m/m and 2.6% y/y, gasoline +9.1%. S&P 500 fell 1.1%, October hike odds rose to 35%.
South Korea economy under Lee Jae-myung: 3.3% growth forecast, chips at half of exports, KOSPI 6,035, average salary 4.3M won ($3,220), BOK at 3%.
Russia OFZ bonds, October 2026: deficit of 5.19 trillion rubles in nine months, failed auctions, 10-year yield 16.85% vs a 14% key rate. What it signals.
Minfin deferred 39 bn UAH of September capex to December; Autostrada halted all sites incl. the Vynohradar metro. Aid $2.11B in August, IMF review stuck.
Finland approved a €290M package, its 34th. Ukraine's 2027 budget needs $52.6B from abroad, $32.6B of it unfunded. Where the money comes from and what it means.
NOAA puts a 75% chance on the strongest El Niño since 1950. Sugar (+21% in August) and rice (+35% YTD) have priced it; cocoa and arabica have not yet.
From 2027 a pension at 60 in Ukraine needs 34 years of service, 35 from 2028. A year costs 22,828 UAH to buy; the average pension is 7,273 UAH. Full table.
Every rate a Ukrainian resident investor pays in 2026, in one table: 23% on trading gains, 14% on foreign dividends, 0% on government bonds, and the deadlines.
Investment profit in Ukraine is taxed at 23% — but on the netted annual result, not per trade. Losses carry forward. Most people compute the base wrong.
A foreign broker withholds nothing for Ukraine. Two separate income types, two rates, one declaration by 1 May and payment by 1 August. The mechanics, in order.
Ukraine's CFC rules tax undistributed foreign profit at 18% plus 5%. Two exemptions remove the tax — neither removes the report. Fines run to 332,800 UAH.
Ukraine taxes dividends by the status of the issuer, not the size of the payment: 5% from a profit-tax payer, 9% from a foreign one, plus a 5% levy.
FOP third group pays 5% plus a 1% military levy on turnover in 2026, with a 10.09m hryvnia cap. Investment income does not fit inside it, and here is why.
Law 2074-IX never entered force and bill 10225-d has sat before its second reading since September 2025. Until it passes, general rules apply to crypto income.
A foreign tax credit in Ukraine needs a legalised certificate, is capped at the Ukrainian liability, and never covers the military levy. Three limits, in order.
The fine for a missing declaration is 340 hryvnia. The penalty for the unpaid tax underneath it runs to 25%, plus interest — and the data now arrives by itself.
Our analysts preview the busiest week of the quarter: Microsoft, Meta, Apple and Amazon report as the market asks one question — is the AI spend worth it?
Our team on the FOMC decision: a hold is consensus Wednesday, but oil's spike put a September hike near 80% odds. Why the press conference matters most.
Ruslan Averin on the July 23 megacap selloff: hyperscaler capex passed $452B while free cash flow collapsed. The market stopped funding the buildout on faith.
Ruslan Averin on Oracle: at 86% capex-to-sales, the software multiple no longer describes the business. Analysts are valuing an infrastructure developer.
Ruslan Averin on the AI toll booths: power, cooling, grid and memory get paid on the construction schedule, not on whether AI monetizes on time.
Ruslan Averin on the widening oil chokepoint risk: Houthi attacks on two Saudi tankers and the halt of Kazakh exports through the CPC terminal after drone strikes.
Ruslan Averin maps where the AI trade is going next: past the chip designers into the bottlenecks — power, memory and cooling — where the real constraints now sit.
Ruslan Averin on the Q2 setup: the S&P 500 may grow EPS 22%, but with AI infrastructure driving ~60% of it, the earnings story is dangerously narrow.
Ruslan Averin breaks down Toyota stock: why the hybrid bet is working, what he's waiting for, and at what levels an entry looks reasonable.
Ruslan Averin on the NBU's June hold at 15%: headline inflation is cooling but core is rising — a hawkish hold that quietly defends hryvnia yields.
The S&P 500 hit a record 7,554, up 1.65% on June 15. Ruslan Averin's read: the index number is clean, but the gap between the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq is the real story.
Ruslan Averin’s read — Trump's U.S.–Iran framework reopened the Strait of Hormuz and reset the geopolitical risk premium overnight. My take: this is what the market repricing a tail risk looks like in real time.
The market rallied on Iran, but the FOMC meets June 16–17 with inflation still sticky at 3.8%. Ruslan Averin's read: the peace deal lit the match, but the Fed decides if the rally burns.
Three indexes at records, gold and silver at records, oil at two-month lows — all on one weekend. Ruslan Averin's read: the setup is real, but headline-driven records need a second catalyst to survive.
The PHLX Semiconductor Index is up over 65% YTD into mid-June 2026, with NVIDIA still leading the AI-capex trade. Ruslan Averin explains why the leg is real, where the 1999 comparison fits, and how he's sizing it.
BIDU broke out roughly 15% on news of an AI-chip division spinoff, even with a Pentagon-list overhang. Ruslan Averin weighs the bull catalyst against the geopolitical tax on every Chinese ADR.
Into the June 15 risk-on tape, Alphabet is benefiting from a structural re-rating around its TPU stack and a deal to power Apple's Siri overhaul with Gemini. Ruslan Averin breaks down why this mega-cap looks different in 2026.
SpaceX's historic debut triggered a 'capital siphon' across space stocks — yet KeyBanc upgraded Rocket Lab to overweight in the selloff. Ruslan Averin sorts the halo from the hype across RKLB, RDW and ASTS.
Conventional wisdom says safe havens fall when peace breaks out. On June 15 gold and silver did the opposite. Ruslan Averin explains the rate, dollar and central-bank mechanics behind the contradiction.
Lockheed, Northrop and L3Harris slid 1.1–1.9% as a U.S.–Iran ceasefire lifted the S&P 1.5%. Ruslan Averin on why peace is bad for defense names — and where the durable demand actually sits.
When safe havens rally into a peace deal, the tape is leaking information about positioning. Ruslan Averin on what gold's record $4,357 print signals about crowding, conviction and the next rotation.
China confirmed its EV trade-in subsidies run through 2026, and NIO and XPeng jumped ~6%. Analyst Ruslan Averin explains why the policy floor matters more than any single delivery number.
The peace deal sank crude and flipped the sector tape: energy down, airlines and cyclicals up. Analyst Ruslan Averin maps the rotation and where the rate-of-change actually favors you.
Intel rose 6.5% on June 12, extending a 450% 2026 run after Google routed a 3M-chip TPU order to Intel Foundry over TSMC, with BofA upgrading to Buy at $135.
AMD rose 4.7% on June 12 as semis rallied on a Trump-Iran breakthrough — but the durable story is a data-center segment up 57% YoY and a BofA target of $560.
Micron crossed a $1 trillion market cap on June 11 after an 860% run in 12 months — and UBS tripled its price target to $1,625, implying another 115% upside. Here is how I read a memory maker worth a trillion dollars.
ByteDance is buying millions of Qualcomm AI chips for its data centers — one of Qualcomm's first major ASIC wins in AI infrastructure. The phone-chip company just bought itself a second story.
Honeywell-backed Quantinuum is going public at up to $12.7B — on $5.2M quarterly revenue and a $136.6M loss. With IONQ +132% since March, this IPO will price the sector's reality.
A month after its IPO, Cerebras trades near $241 with 10 buy ratings, a $294 average target and a $10B OpenAI deal — at 88x sales. The wafer-scale bet against Nvidia, priced for belief.
Dell's AI server sales hit $16.1B of a $43.8B quarter — up 88% YoY — and management guided 2027 revenue to $167B against Wall Street's $142B. The boring PC maker is now an AI infrastructure story.
Zacks upgraded Oracle to Buy at $201.26 on rising earnings estimates — $7.46 EPS expected for fiscal 2026 and estimates up 1.6% in three months. The signal is the direction, not the headline.
American Airlines is equipping 500+ jets with Starlink at up to 1 Gbps per aircraft — joining United and Hawaiian while Delta bets on Amazon. AAL jumped 6%, and the timing next to the SpaceX IPO is no accident.
Salesforce trades down 31.9% YTD into earnings with Agentforce ARR at $800M growing 169%. The whole AI-software debate now runs through one line of CRM's report.
Dollar General is down 30% since February to under $109 — yet sales are growing, margins improved 60bp, and its fastest-growing customers earn $100k+. The analyst target says $130.
Oneok rallied 18% in 2026, yields 4.8% ($4.28/share), and 90% of earnings are fee-based across 60,000 miles of pipe. Net income +12%, EBITDA +13%, guidance raised — but the PEG above 2 says the easy money is gone.
Argan is up ~90% YTD and 1,000% in five years: Q1 revenue +50% to $291M, EPS nearly doubled, backlog up from $1.4B to $2.9B, zero debt. America is short power plants — Argan builds them.
Wingstop fell 38.7% in six months to $144 — yet runs 25.9% operating margins, 16.3% FCF margins and 4.8% same-store growth. A franchise machine at 30x forward earnings for the first time in years.
Nuvalent surged ~38% on June 9 after GSK agreed to buy the cancer-drug maker for $10.6B, or $124 a share in cash — a ~40% premium. Here is how I read the deal.
J.M. Smucker beat Q4 FY26 with $2.77 adjusted EPS and jumped ~11% — but the FY27 guide to $9.02–$9.93 and the Uncrustables-and-coffee engine are what changed the thesis.
DKNG rose ~10% as its CFTC-regulated DraftKings Exchange market-maker program went live. The prediction-market push could re-rate the stock beyond state-by-state sportsbook math.
Credo extended its rally as the chip complex rebounded. Its June 1 beat-and-raise showed FY26 revenue up 3x to $1.34B and a FY27 guide above 80% growth — here is what I watch.
Fluence extended its surge after Siemens named its SmartStack the only battery-storage partner across seven NVIDIA-ecosystem data-center designs. Here is how I read the AI-grid story.
ACLS rose ~10% as chip-equipment names rebounded. The bigger story is the pending Veeco merger that reshapes Axcelis into a larger semicap platform — here is how I read it.
SN rose with consumer-discretionary names as tariff fears eased. Behind the move: a Q1 beat, raised FY26 guidance, and a relentless product cadence. Here is my read.
W rose with the home-and-retail group on easing-rate hopes. Behind it: market-share gains, a first large-format store, and a loyalty push. Here is how I read the move.
FND rose ~7% with housing names on easing-rate hopes — notably, after a Q1 miss and guidance cut. Here is why the macro bid is outrunning the fundamentals for now.
ALHC rose ~10% into a healthcare conference. Behind it: 46% revenue growth and 100% of members in 4-Star+ Medicare Advantage plans while rivals fight cost pressure. My read.
Hurco orders surged 41% to $61.6M in fiscal Q2 2026 — and because orders lead sales, that demand signal tells you more about the turnaround than the still-red bottom line.
Cooper Companies posted record fiscal Q2 2026 non-GAAP EPS of $1.21, up 26% and past the $1.10 consensus — its tenth straight beat — and the GAAP loss hiding it is the opportunity. The stock jumped 8.47%.
Concrete Pumping Holdings posted EPS of $0.04 versus a $0.01 estimate — a 300% beat — and raised full-year guidance. The number that matters: income from operations up 46% on revenue up just 14%.
ABM Industries popped +6.38% on $2.29B revenue and $0.90 adjusted EPS for fiscal Q2 2026 — a clean double beat — but the part that moved the stock was the raised full-year guidance to $3.85-$4.15.
ArcBest has returned +120.32% in a year — and just bolted a digital platform onto asset-based revenue growing +10% per day this quarter. Here's why the volume, not the price, is the real story.
Cardinal Health raised its fiscal 2026 EPS outlook above $10 while last quarter's adjusted EPS jumped 35% YoY — and the radiopharma kicker is what could re-rate this defensive name.
Cencora raised fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $17.65-$17.90 on $78.4B in Q2 revenue, then hired a brand-name CFO — three quiet catalysts that tell you this defensive compounder is playing offense.
Republic Services posted $525M in Q1 net income ($1.70/share, up ~6%) with margins expanding ~50 bps — and the consensus target implies ~16.2% upside while the market looks elsewhere.
Broadcom reported this week and a weaker-than-expected AI chip outlook sent its shares plunging — and dragged the Nasdaq down ~4% in a single session. I break down why a company-specific miss became a thesis-level repricing of the entire AI trade.
Alphabet has surged +34% since April, the strongest move since 2004. Q1 EPS $2.81 vs $2.30 estimate. I added at $168 and explain why the AI stack thesis is now confirmed.
S&P 500 forward P/E at 20.9x — above the 5-year average of 19.2x. I break down what institutions are actually pricing, where margin risk hides, and my hedged position.
Kevin Warsh replaces Powell as Fed Chair. Rate hike probability jumped from <1% to 50% in seven days. Here's what that repricing means for bonds, equities, and your portfolio.
Trump is planning a visit to Xi Jinping in China to discuss tariffs and AI. My analysis of what a Trump-Xi deal means for Asia-Pacific portfolio exposure, China EM re-rating, and Taiwan strait risk.
FMC Corporation is down 73% from its peak and formally on the auction block. Our analysts break down the bull and bear case on the most controversial value stock of 2026.
Alphabet stock analysis 2026: $109.9B Q1 revenue, 81% profit surge, Cloud $20B. Why GOOGL at 28x forward P/E may still make sense.
Copper is up 37% YoY at $6.41/lb. AI data centers need 27–33 tonnes per MW. Here's the demand math — and the mine supply reality.
Corporate bond market 2026: IG yields at 5.2–5.4%, HY at 7.5–8%. Record Q1 issuance signals opportunity — and risk. Our analysts assess both tiers.
The Fed's rate freeze through June 2026 opens a 30-day window in short-duration high-yield bonds. Our analysts map three positions yielding 6.7–7.9%.
Q2 2026 is the first full tariff quarter. IG spreads are historically tight, HY has already repriced. Here is where we see value — and what to hedge.
The Fed is cutting. Here is the complete 2026 bond market playbook — IG ladder construction, high-yield selection, EM opportunity, hedging framework, and three.
BNTX stock broke above 200-day MA. With 47 oncology programs and $10B cash, the market still prices it as a COVID play — that gap is the trade.
Mitsubishi (8058): $7.8B profit, ¥300B buyback, Buffett at 9% — and trading at 10x earnings. Why this is the strongest risk-adjusted entry in Japanese equities.
Mitsui cleared ¥1 trillion in net profit for the first time in FY2025 — trading at 9x earnings. The LNG and iron ore thesis, BOJ risks, and the 12-month.
Of Berkshire's five Japanese holdings, Itochu is the most defensive. At ¥7,200 and 12x earnings with 18% ROE, it commands a premium. Here is whether that.
Sumitomo offers the highest dividend yield (3.8%) of Japan's Big Five at 1.2x book. The copper thesis, nickel aftermath, and why income investors are watching.
Marubeni (8002) at sub-9x earnings: cheapest of Japan's Big Five with a 3.5% yield. The grain tariff risk is real — but the power infrastructure upside is.
FSLR stock hit record $1B quarterly revenue and broke out 7.1% on earnings. Only US CdTe panel maker — immune to tariffs. Target $238.
UPS stock yields 6.1% and institutional buyers ran 4:1 in Q1 2026. Down 45% from peak, the $117–124 buy zone offers asymmetric upside in logistics.
NATO set a 5% GDP defense target. EU committed €800B. Rheinmetall is up just 3.4% YTD while BAE is +23%. Here is why the divergence is a setup.
IBKR stock consolidates 3% below all-time high. Volatility drives revenue, RSI has room, 14 analysts rate Buy. Entry $118–124, target $132.
UNH stock crashed 40% then recovered 35%. RSI cooling and CEO transition managed — the $312–340 zone is our structural entry target.
EL stock trades at $79 vs GF fair value of $106. Q1 beat sent shares up 11.5% in one session. The bottoming pattern is forming — entry $72–80.
Gold fell from $5,589 ATH to ~$4,600. Central banks are still buying. The dollar is at 3-year lows. Why is gold down? The correlation broke.
Hyperscalers commit $725B to AI in 2026. NBER finds 90% of firms report zero productivity gain. Is this the largest misallocation in history — or early cycle?
Powell's last FOMC: 8-4 dissent, core PCE at 3.2%. Kevin Warsh believes tariffs aren't inflationary and AI is deflationary. Here is why that matters.
Hormuz closed March 4. Brent hit $126, now $108-116. XLE up 35% YTD. Permian rig count at 4-year lows. Here is what energy markets are actually pricing.
BMW delivered 565,748 cars in Q1 2026. The stock is down 25% YTD. Three simultaneous pressures explain both numbers.
American Airlines beat Q1 2026 EPS consensus by $0.53 on record loyalty revenue. Management then withdrew annual guidance, citing macro and tariff uncertainty.
SLB stock flashed 26/26 bullish technical signals and is up 41% YTD. Citi and UBS target $68–69. The cleanest chart in the entire oil sector.
HAL stock surged 7% on Q1 beat and broke key resistance the same session. 17 analyst Buy ratings. Entry zone $38–41, target $48.
BKR stock isn't just oilfield — it builds LNG turbines for AI data centers. Susquehanna raised target to $80. Buy zone $62–66.
CAT stock posted a 19% EPS beat and hit all-time highs in Q1 2026. ChartMill 10/10 technical rating. Bull case to $935–1000 backed by AI infrastructure.
EMR stock power control orders grew 74% YoY with a 1.7GW AI data center contract. Q2 earnings May 5. Buy zone $138–143.
Boeing Q1 2026 earnings beat consensus by $0.55 on EPS. Cash burn narrowed from -$1.6B to -$179M. The inflection trade is becoming real — with three caveats.
Berkshire spent $266M buying ULTA Beauty in 2024, then exited before a 40% rally. Now at $607 with double-digit EPS guidance, is this the setup they abandoned?
Azure accelerates to 35% YoY growth; Copilot seats hit 20M+. Our analysts assess what $80B capex signals for AI dominance.
Alphabet Q1 2026 earnings analysis: $90.2B revenue, $2.81 EPS vs $2.01 expected, Google Cloud +28% YoY, $70B buyback announced.
Pfizer trades near its lows while quietly rebuilding through oncology, Seagen integration, and a 6.5% yield that keeps the question alive: value trap or.
PBF Energy is a pure-play independent refiner trading below book, a cyclical thermometer for the American fuel economy that the market prefers to ignore until.
PANW is executing a difficult strategic pivot toward full-stack security while trading at 20x revenue. The RPO-to-revenue gap is the single metric that decides.
OXY is a leveraged bet on domestic shale longevity wrapped inside a chemicals-and-midstream chassis. The CrownRock acquisition reshaped the balance sheet. What.
Thirty years of dividend growth, 15,000+ properties, a 5.7% yield trading at 13x AFFO versus a historical 18–20x. Realty Income is not a growth story — it is a.
Is Dubai property still a buy? I run through supply, demand, and cycle positioning.
SPX iron condor rules: 15–18 delta short put, 10–12 delta call, 25–30 days to expiry, exit at 50% or 21 days. Real record: 38 winning months of 48.
EM equities are cheap vs. US by almost any metric. Here's my thesis.