Constellation Energy and NRG Energy report third-quarter 2026 results before the US market opens on Monday 9 November. NRG said on 26 October that its call starts at 8:00 a.m. Eastern time, and Nasdaq's calendar, based on Zacks data, lists Constellation for the same morning. The Zacks consensus is adjusted earnings of $3.90 a share for Constellation, up from $3.04 a year earlier, and $3.44 for NRG, against $2.75.
Financial analyst Ruslan Averin notes that the two prints land four days after the election hit the AI power trade. On Wednesday 4 November NRG fell 13.5% and Constellation 6.7%, Nasdaq closing data show, after Democrat Gina Hinojosa won the Texas governor's race on a pledge to halt new data centre projects, Reuters reported. On Friday 6 November Constellation closed at $249.95, down 29.2% in 2026, and NRG at $88.29, down 44.6%.
What moved the stocks in the last 72 hours
The midterms on Tuesday 3 November gave Democrats control of the House and the Senate, CNBC reported, and the Texas result mattered most for power producers. Hinojosa beat the Republican incumbent Greg Abbott and has vowed to ban data centre approvals until the state legislature passes new laws, Reuters reported. She said the aim was "to protect Texans, so that Texans have a seat at the table to decide if and how data centers come into our community."
Texas was already tightening. On 3 August Abbott halted the connection of new data centres to the state grid, when ERCOT was tracking more than 400 gigawatts of data centre projects seeking to connect, according to Reuters. Texas holds 25% of planned US data centre capacity, Reuters wrote, citing a Goldman Sachs note.
The sell-off ran into Thursday 5 November, when NRG closed at $80.55, its lowest close of 2026. Friday brought a rebound after Vistra, the closest peer, reported: adjusted EBITDA from ongoing operations rose to $2.378 billion from $1.581 billion, and Vistra set its first 2027 range at $7.7–8.5 billion with about 98% of 2027 generation hedged. Vistra closed up 10.6%, NRG 9.6% and Constellation 4.3%.
The bar for Monday
| Line | Constellation (CEG) | NRG Energy (NRG) |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 adjusted EPS, Zacks consensus | $3.90 | $3.44 |
| Q3 2025 adjusted EPS, Zacks basis | $3.04 | $2.75 |
| Q3 2026 revenue, Zacks consensus | $8.72 billion (+32.7%) | $6.72 billion (−11.9%) |
| 2026 adjusted EPS guidance | $11.50–12.50 (raised 6 August) | $7.90–9.90 (reaffirmed 4 August) |
| First-half 2026 adjusted EPS | $5.29 | $2.98 |
| Full-year 2026 consensus | $12.18 | $8.62 |
| Forward P/E against industry, Zacks | 18.74 vs 21.54 | 8.45 vs 16.42 |
Guidance comes from the second-quarter releases; consensus from Zacks via Nasdaq. Constellation's first-half earnings of $5.29 mean the guide implies $6.21–7.21 for the second half. The Zacks quarterly estimates of $3.90 and $3.04 add up to $6.94, in the upper part of that range. For NRG the guide implies $4.92–6.92 for the second half; the quarterly estimates of $3.44 and $1.94 sum to $5.38. Zacks says NRG's third-quarter estimate has fallen 6.01% over 60 days.
Constellation: Calpine is closed, Google is signed
Constellation completed the purchase of Calpine on 7 January 2026 for about $21.8 billion, paid with 50 million new shares and about $4.5 billion of cash, its quarterly filing shows. Regulators required asset sales: $5.0 billion of plants in Delaware and Pennsylvania, and in August an agreement to sell the 606-megawatt Brazos Valley gas plant in Texas to LS Power for $860 million. The company called it the last required sale and expects it to close by the end of 2026, subject to Justice Department approval.
Calpine drove the second quarter. Adjusted operating earnings rose to $2.55 a share from $1.91, and the full-year range went to $11.50–12.50 from $11.00–12.00.
On Tuesday 6 October Google agreed to take 3,590 megawatts from Constellation, CNBC reported: 890 megawatts under a 20-year power purchase agreement from upgraded nuclear units and 2,700 megawatts under a long-term supply agreement. The deal supports more than $4.3 billion of new investment at 11 reactors in Illinois, Pennsylvania and New Jersey, with first upgraded output in 2028. The stock jumped 12.3% that day to $300.40; it has since given back 16.8%.
The rest of the book: 920 megawatts of new 15–20-year agreements signed in the second quarter, and the Crane restart for Microsoft, which received its fuel licence approval from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission and is due in 2027. Calpine also brought Texas exposure: in May the company reported approval of a co-located data centre at its Freestone site.
NRG: LS Power doubled the fleet, Texas is the risk
NRG closed the LS Power deal on 30 January 2026: 18 gas and dual-fuel plants totalling about 13 gigawatts, plus the CPower demand-response business, for 24.25 million shares and $6.4 billion in cash, according to its quarterly filing. The deal doubled NRG's generation capacity.
The second quarter showed both sides. Adjusted EBITDA rose to $1.217 billion from $909 million, and the East segment jumped to $469 million from $99 million on the new plants and higher capacity prices. Texas fell to $381 million from $512 million on supply costs and mild weather. Adjusted EPS dropped to $1.49 from $1.73 on higher interest and depreciation. On Tuesday 4 August, the day after Abbott's grid halt, the stock fell 15.5% to $117.04.
The data centre plan sits in Texas. NRG said in August it had agreed principal commercial terms with a hyperscaler for a 1.2-gigawatt combined-cycle gas plant in the state, still subject to final documentation. Chief executive Robert Gaudette called the "Bring Your Own Power" approach "the model for how large load growth should work." NRG planned $1.0 billion of buybacks in 2026 and had completed $932 million by 31 July.
PJM: capacity prices are capped, not falling
On 14 July the PJM auction for 2028/29 cleared at its $325 per megawatt-day cap across the region, Utility Dive reported. Total cost was $16.4 billion; without the collar PJM estimated a price near $555 and $29.7 billion. Supply still fell about 6.8 gigawatts short of the reliability target. That keeps a high floor under both companies' PJM fleets, but prices are set by a political cap.
What I would watch, and the scenario logic
In my view, five lines decide the reaction:
- Texas. Whether NRG still expects to sign the 1.2-gigawatt project, and what Constellation says about Freestone. A pause would matter more than any EPS beat.
- 2027 numbers. Vistra set a 2027 range on Friday. Zacks puts 2027 EPS at $13.30 for Constellation and $9.98 for NRG, with four downward revisions among five estimates in the past four weeks.
- 2026 guidance. Constellation against the $12.18 consensus; NRG against its $8.90 midpoint.
- New contracts outside Texas, especially more PJM nuclear upgrades after Google, and the Brazos Valley closing.
- Capital return. NRG's buyback pace after $932 million; at 8.45 times forward earnings, repurchases go further.
The constructive case is a beat, guidance held or raised and no Texas delay: a repeat of Vistra's Friday. The negative case is a delay to NRG's hyperscaler plant, which would reopen Wednesday's sell-off. For the wider AI spending backdrop, see the AI capex revenue gap and our midterm elections market guide.
What to watch next
- Monday 9 November, before the open: NRG results, call at 8:00 a.m. Eastern; Constellation results the same morning, per Nasdaq's calendar.
- By 31 December: the Brazos Valley closing; Abbott's data centre audit, due at the end of 2026, Reuters reported.
- January 2027: Hinojosa takes office and the Texas Legislature convenes; her approval ban depends on new laws.
- 2027–2028: the Crane restart and the first upgraded nuclear output for Google.
Related: Vistra's Q2 2026 results, Generac's $8 billion Amazon deal and KKR's $9 billion bid for UGI.