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The Fed Held at 3.75%. The Bond Market Hiked Anyway: The US Yield Curve in September 2026
The 10-year TIPS real yield was 2.43% on 8 Sep 2026 and breakeven inflation 2.37%, summing to a 4.80% nominal. Every Treasury maturity vs 2025.
The 10-year TIPS real yield was 2.43% on 8 Sep 2026 and breakeven inflation 2.37%, summing to a 4.80% nominal. Every Treasury maturity vs 2025.
10-year Treasury at 4.56% with CPI at 3.8% leaves a real yield of just 0.76%. Add Warsh's rate hike odds and the bond math for Q2 2026 gets more complex than the headline suggests.