US10Y

US10Y — Ruslan Averin's Analysis · 2 entries

Sep 10, 2026·8 min read
The Fed Held at 3.75%. The Bond Market Hiked Anyway: The US Yield Curve in September 2026
Fed funds held at 3.75% since December; the 10-year rose from 4.19% to 4.80%, the 30-year to 5.25%. Every maturity, the 2.43% real yield, why it steepened.
$Treasury Yields at 4.56%: The Bond Market Math After the 3.8% CPI$
May 19, 2026·7 min read
Treasury Yields at 4.56%: The Bond Market Math After the 3.8% CPI
10-year Treasury at 4.56% with CPI at 3.8% leaves a real yield of just 0.76%. Add Warsh's rate hike odds and the bond math for Q2 2026 gets more complex than the headline suggests.