A litre of A-95 petrol cost UAH 89.36 on average in Ukraine on Monday 12 October 2026, and a litre of diesel UAH 98.68, according to the A-95 Consulting Group data published by Minfin. A year earlier, on 13 October 2025, the same litres cost UAH 58.78 and UAH 55.93. That is +52% for petrol and +76% for diesel in twelve months. Autogas (LPG) rose to UAH 46.24, up 34% from UAH 34.46.
On the same day the National Bank of Ukraine said fuel was the fastest-rising item in the consumer basket in September: +46.2% year on year, against headline inflation of 10.0%. The question now is whether the peak has passed, and where prices go by December.
Update, 15 October 2026: diesel and autogas up again
Diesel and autogas rose again on Thursday 15 October, while A-95 stayed where it was at most big networks, according to the price lists published by RBC-Ukraine and Glavcom. OKKO added UAH 1 to its diesel, taking Euro diesel to UAH 100.90 and Pulls diesel to UAH 103.90, and UAH 1 to autogas, now UAH 49.90. WOG had moved diesel to UAH 100.90 a day earlier. SOCAR, which cut prices by UAH 1 on 13 October, put diesel back at UAH 104.00. UPG raised its premium diesel to UAH 100.90.
| Network | A-95, 13 → 15 Oct | Diesel, 13 → 15 Oct | Autogas, 13 → 15 Oct |
|---|---|---|---|
| OKKO | 92.90 → 92.90 | 99.90 → 100.90 | 48.90 → 49.90 |
| WOG | 92.90 → 92.90 | 99.90 → 100.90 | 48.90 → 49.50 |
| SOCAR | 94.90 → 94.90 | 103.00 → 104.00 | 48.90 → 48.90 |
| Ukrnafta | 88.90 → 88.90 | 97.90 → 97.90 | 44.90 → 46.90 |
| KLO | 86.90 → 86.90 | 99.40 → 99.40 | 47.10 → 48.40 |
| BRSM-Nafta | 86.99 → 86.99 | 96.99 → 96.99 | 44.49 → 45.49 |
The national averages from the A-95 Consulting Group, published by Minfin, show the same pattern. On 14 October diesel averaged UAH 99.07 a litre, up 33 kopecks in a day and UAH 0.39 since 12 October. Autogas reached UAH 47.17, up 93 kopecks in two days. A-95 moved only to UAH 89.51.
What it changes: diesel is now pressing against the top of my UAH 95–100 range for December, and the Russian diesel allowed under General License 135 has not reached prices yet. Autogas is the fastest riser this week. The hryvnia adds to the import cost: the official rate set a record of UAH 45.08 per dollar on 14 October. I keep the base case, with the risk now clearly on the upside for diesel.
The prices on 12 October
| Fuel | 12 Oct 2026, UAH/litre | 13 Oct 2025, UAH/litre | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| A-95 | 89.36 | 58.78 | +52.0% |
| A-95 premium | 93.41 | 63.48 | +47.1% |
| Diesel | 98.68 | 55.93 | +76.4% |
| Autogas (LPG) | 46.24 | 34.46 | +34.2% |
Two things stand out. First, diesel is now UAH 9.32 more expensive than A-95; a year ago it was UAH 2.85 cheaper. Second, the move did not happen evenly. On 2 March, days after the US and Israel launched the war against Iran on 28 February, A-95 was UAH 62.87 and diesel UAH 62.69. By 31 March diesel had jumped to UAH 85.39. Petrol caught up more slowly, through the summer, and added almost UAH 9 in September alone.
In dollars, at the official rate of UAH 44.88 for 12 October, A-95 costs about $1.99 a litre and diesel about $2.20. Part of the hryvnia increase is simply the hryvnia: the National Bank's official rate set a record of UAH 45.06 per dollar on 6 October.
OKKO, WOG, UPG, SOCAR: the gap between networks
The national average hides a spread of almost UAH 10 a litre. Minfin's price index for 12 October shows these posted prices at the big networks:
| Network | A-95 | A-95 premium | Diesel | Autogas |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOCAR | 95.90 | 98.90 | 104.00 | 48.61 |
| OKKO | 92.90 | 95.90 | 99.90 | 47.90 |
| WOG | 92.90 | 95.90 | 99.90 | 48.90 |
| UPG | 88.90 | 91.90 | 97.90 | 45.90 |
| Ukrnafta | 88.90 | 91.90 | 97.90 | 44.90 |
| AMIC | 87.96 | 90.96 | 98.51 | 46.75 |
| KLO | 86.90 | 94.60 | 99.40 | 47.10 |
| BRSM-Nafta | 86.51 | — | 96.38 | 44.59 |
The difference between SOCAR and BRSM-Nafta on A-95 is UAH 9.39 a litre, or about UAH 470 on a 50-litre tank. On diesel the gap between the most and least expensive network is UAH 7.62. Networks also carry the cost of war: OKKO said on 12 October that its losses from Russian attacks since the start of the full-scale war exceeded $150 million, with more than 80 filling stations and more than 10 oil depots hit.
Why it is so expensive: oil, diesel and taxes
First, crude. Brent crude futures closed on Monday 12 October at $106.65 a barrel, the highest close since 15 September, according to Reuters as cited by Ekonomichna Pravda. On 13 October 2025 Brent closed at $63.32, so crude is up about 68% in a year in dollars.
Second, diesel itself, short globally because of the Gulf war and strikes on Russian refineries. I covered that story in detail in the diesel record and Trump's request to Kyiv. The new chapter came on Friday 9 October. The US Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control issued General License 135, which authorises the sale, delivery and import of Russian-origin diesel until 7 April 2027. President Donald Trump said Russia would supply 300,000 tonnes immediately, 500,000 tonnes in November, 1 million tonnes after that and a further 3 million tonnes depending on the state of Russian refineries. Volodymyr Zelensky called it "a weak decision by strong partners".
On 12 October Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said, as reported by Reuters, that Russian diesel exports could return to pre-crisis levels by the end of the year and reach 3–3.5 million tonnes a month. Russia's own ban on diesel exports, in place since July, runs until the end of October.
Third, domestic tax. Since 1 January 2026 the excise duty on petrol is €300.8 per 1,000 litres (from €271.7), on diesel €253.8 (from €215.7) and on autogas €198 (from €173). At the National Bank's euro rate of UAH 50.24 for 13 October, that is roughly UAH 15.11 a litre for petrol and UAH 12.75 for diesel. Add 20% VAT, which is one sixth of the retail price, and taxes make up about UAH 30 of the UAH 89.36 litre of A-95, roughly a third. The 2024 law sets two further increases, on 1 January 2027 and 1 January 2028.
What it means for household budgets and inflation
Take a car that drives 1,000 km a month. On petrol at 8 litres per 100 km, the monthly bill is UAH 7,149 now against UAH 4,702 a year ago: UAH 2,446 more. A diesel car at 6.5 litres pays UAH 6,414 instead of UAH 3,635, or UAH 2,779 more. A car on autogas at 10 litres pays UAH 4,624 instead of UAH 3,446.
The bigger effect is indirect. Almost everything in Ukraine moves by truck, and trucks run on diesel. In September consumer prices rose 2.1% in a month and 10.0% in a year, core inflation reached 8.8%, and fuel and lubricants alone rose 5.2% in a month. The National Bank said inflation was well above its July forecast and expects high fuel prices, higher transport and storage costs and damaged logistics to keep pressure up in the coming months. Its key rate is 16%. The next rate decision is later in October, and the updated macro forecast is due on 29 October. I unpack the savings side in September inflation and what it means for deposits and OVDP.
Cheaper or dearer by December: the scenarios
In analyst Ruslan Averin's view, three things decide the price at the pump before the end of the year.
- Russian diesel volumes. If the 300,000 and 500,000 tonnes actually ship and Novak's 3 million tonnes a month materialise, global diesel margins should ease. Ukraine does not buy Russian fuel and EU sanctions stay, but extra barrels elsewhere free up supply for Europe, where Ukraine buys. Novak himself put the fall in world diesel prices at 5–6%. That is worth a few hryvnias a litre, not a return to UAH 60.
- Brent and the Gulf. A close at $106.65 is not a falling market. Without a durable de-escalation, crude keeps petrol near UAH 90.
- The hryvnia. Ukraine imports most of its fuel and pays in foreign currency, so a weaker hryvnia passes straight into the import cost of every litre. A move from UAH 44.88 towards UAH 46 per dollar would eat into any diesel relief.
My base case is that diesel stays in a UAH 95–100 range into December, with downside only if Russian volumes arrive on schedule, and that A-95 holds near UAH 88–92. The risks lean to the upside for petrol: higher winter demand for logistics, attacks on depots and the next excise step on 1 January 2027, right after the December horizon. I would watch three numbers weekly: the Minfin diesel average, Brent's close and the official dollar rate.
Related: the diesel record and the refinery strikes, the dollar at UAH 45 and NBU interventions and fuel as the cost shock nobody can rate-hike away.