Brief takes on market-moving events.
Which hryvnia banknotes are withdrawn in 2026: UAH 1–10 notes of 2003–2007 designs. Banks swap them free until 26 Feb 2027; 623.5m still on NBU books.
NBU rate decision on 29 October 2026: hold at 16% or hike? Inflation 10%, reserves $47.1bn, hryvnia at 45.03 — what it means for deposits and OVDP.
NABU searches at the National Bank of Ukraine, 21 October: no one detained, no suspicion. What it means for the hryvnia at 45.08, the 16% rate and deposits.
Gas price for households in Ukraine: UAH 7.96 per m³ at Naftogaz until 30 April 2027, other suppliers 7.96–26.99, delivery 0.38–2.95. Bills for 50–200 m³.
Gas reserves in Ukraine reach 16 bcm, the most since 2020, above the 13.2 bcm minimum. Will it be enough? Households keep paying UAH 7.96 until April 2027.
Frosts in Ukraine: ground frosts to −3°C on 15 October, heating season dates, gas UAH 7.96, power 4.32, diesel above 100 and what a cold month costs.
Pension indexation in Russia 2027: +6.8% from 1 February, +3.3% from 1 April, average RUB 29,904, pension point RUB 172.94, examples for RUB 20,000–30,000.
Winter Support UAH 19,400 per household in frontline communities: who qualifies, where to apply in person by 30 October, payouts by 30 November.
Average pension in Ukraine on 1 October 2026: UAH 7,287.81, up 13.2%. 19.02% get over UAH 10,000, 44% under 5,000. What the new aid law changes in 2027.
UAH 5,000 banknote: the NBU says no. 366,100 UAH 2,000 notes in circulation, UAH 973bn cash, 1,000s hold 56% of value; inflation 10%, not the 1990s.
Employee reservation 2026: draft cuts limits to 85% for defence and energy, 60% for utilities, changes the quota base. Wage threshold UAH 25,941.
Bank of Russia cash appeal decoded: no new warning on 13 October. 38% of Russians prefer cash, 22.23T rubles in circulation, what changed and what did not.
Bank of England new banknotes: hedgehog, bumblebee, barn owl and puffin replace Churchill. Are current notes valid, and how to exchange old pounds abroad.
Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote never mentioned a cut. September hike odds went from 35.4% to 45.7% and the 2-year yield jumped to 4.298%.
Nvidia posted $96.2 billion in quarterly revenue, guided to $108 billion and forecast 70% growth for fiscal 2028. The stock rose 8.7%, then fell 4.6%.
Salesforce revenue of $11.345 billion beat estimates by 0.25%. Adjusted EPS of $5.90 beat by 80%. The stock closed up 22.6% — its best day in years.
CrowdStrike closed up 20.5% and Okta up 28.6% on the same day. Both cited the same driver: securing AI agents is now a separate budget line.
Abercrombie & Fitch posted $4.17 per share against guidance of $1.80-$2.00. Roughly $1.75 of it came from refunded tariffs, not from selling clothes.
Dick's same-store sales rose 4.9%. The stock had its worst day on record, down 30.7%, because Foot Locker turned a good quarter into a guidance cut.
Meta settled with 29 state attorneys general for $16.68 billion over teen social media harms. The stock rose 1.1% that day and 5.1% on the week.
Washington announced a global sanctions plan against Iran on Monday. Brent ended the week at $88.29, down 6.5%, its risk premium bleeding out instead of rising.
The Versailles deadline expired on 17 August with no deal and no extension. Brent went above $90 to $91.36, and the Strait of Hormuz stayed shut.
Ruslan Averin on reports that Michael Burry took call options on Microsoft — why I'd treat the headline with caution before reading anything into it.
The Dow closed at a record 51,671 on June 15 after Trump announced a U.S.–Iran deal. Ruslan Averin's read: the headline is real, but the move is about oil and rates, not optimism.
SpaceX prices its IPO tonight at $135 a share — raising $75B+ at a $1.77 trillion valuation, 2.5x bigger than Saudi Aramco's record. Friday it trades on Nasdaq as SPCX. Here is what actually matters.
The historic winning streak is over. I walk through the five stories that actually moved markets this week — the S&P's first weekly loss in ten weeks, a blowout jobs report, Broadcom's AI warning, Lululemon's guidance cut, and Kevin Warsh's opening message at the Fed.
April CPI +3.8% YoY — highest since May 2023. PPI +1.4% vs 0.5% estimate. Four Fed dissents, most since 1992. CME FedWatch showing 30% odds of a rate hike by year-end.
The US and China slashed tariffs by 115 percentage points in a Geneva surprise. Here's what the 90-day clock actually means, what was not resolved, and what happens if the next summit fails.
ECB held at 2.00% on April 30. Energy-driven CPI and Schnabel signals put a June hike at 76% probability. Terminal rate: 2.25%.
The 90-day tariff pause sent SPX up 9.5% in three days. Markets celebrated. I used the rally to hedge — because a pause is not a deal, and the structural.
The Fed held rates — expected. But the statement contained three signals markets initially misread. Powell's language on tariff inflation was more hawkish than.
Microsoft, Google, Meta, and Amazon will spend over $300B on AI infrastructure in 2026. This is not a bubble — it's an infrastructure cycle. I'm positioned in.
Fed 2026: held at 3.50–3.75% in June (12–0) and July (9–3), then hiked to 3.75–4.00% on 16 September under Kevin Warsh. Next decision on 28 October.
The Fed maintained steady rates as Jerome Powell concludes his tenure. Kevin Warsh nomination advances amid market expectations of 1–2 cuts by year-end.
Jerome Powell's last FOMC ended with rates held at 3.50–3.75% and an 8-4 internal vote. The split reveals more than the decision.