Brief takes on market-moving events.
The Dow closed at a record 51,671 on June 15 after Trump announced a U.S.–Iran deal. Ruslan Averin's read: the headline is real, but the move is about oil and rates, not optimism.
SpaceX prices its IPO tonight at $135 a share — raising $75B+ at a $1.77 trillion valuation, 2.5x bigger than Saudi Aramco's record. Friday it trades on Nasdaq as SPCX. Here is what actually matters.
The historic winning streak is over. I walk through the five stories that actually moved markets this week — the S&P's first weekly loss in ten weeks, a blowout jobs report, Broadcom's AI warning, Lululemon's guidance cut, and Kevin Warsh's opening message at the Fed.
April CPI +3.8% YoY — highest since May 2023. PPI +1.4% vs 0.5% estimate. Four Fed dissents, most since 1992. CME FedWatch showing 30% odds of a rate hike by year-end.
The US and China slashed tariffs by 115 percentage points in a Geneva surprise. Here's what the 90-day clock actually means, what was not resolved, and what happens if the next summit fails.
ECB held at 2.00% on April 30. Energy-driven CPI and Schnabel signals put a June hike at 76% probability. Terminal rate: 2.25%.
The 90-day tariff pause sent SPX up 9.5% in three days. Markets celebrated. I used the rally to hedge — because a pause is not a deal, and the structural.
The Fed held rates — expected. But the statement contained three signals markets initially misread. Powell's language on tariff inflation was more hawkish than.
Microsoft, Google, Meta, and Amazon will spend over $300B on AI infrastructure in 2026. This is not a bubble — it's an infrastructure cycle. I'm positioned in.
FOMC meets June 16-17. Hold probability 70%, cut 28%. Weak GDP and sticky prices complicate the projections.
The Fed maintained steady rates as Jerome Powell concludes his tenure. Kevin Warsh nomination advances amid market expectations of 1–2 cuts by year-end.
Jerome Powell's last FOMC ended with rates held at 3.50–3.75% and an 8-4 internal vote. The split reveals more than the decision.