6 min read
Burry's MSFT Calls: What I Make of the Contrarian's Bet
Ruslan Averin on reports that Michael Burry took call options on Microsoft — why I'd treat the headline with caution before reading anything into it.
News
News
Brief takes on market-moving events.
June 2026
3 min read
The Dow Just Printed a Record on a Peace Deal — Here's What Actually Changed
The Dow closed at a record 51,671 on June 15 after Trump announced a U.S.–Iran deal. Ruslan Averin's read: the headline is real, but the move is about oil and rates, not optimism.
3 min read
SpaceX Prices Tonight: a $75 Billion IPO at a $1.77 Trillion Valuation — The Biggest Ever
SpaceX prices its IPO tonight at $135 a share — raising $75B+ at a $1.77 trillion valuation, 2.5x bigger than Saudi Aramco's record. Friday it trades on Nasdaq as SPCX. Here is what actually matters.
9 min read
Markets This Week: The S&P 500's 10-Week Streak Snapped — 5 Things That Moved Stocks, June 1–7, 2026
The historic winning streak is over. I walk through the five stories that actually moved markets this week — the S&P's first weekly loss in ten weeks, a blowout jobs report, Broadcom's AI warning, Lululemon's guidance cut, and Kevin Warsh's opening message at the Fed.
May 2026
5 min read
Four Fed Dissents. 3.8% CPI. 30% Rate Hike Odds. The Inflation Consensus Just Cracked.
April CPI +3.8% YoY — highest since May 2023. PPI +1.4% vs 0.5% estimate. Four Fed dissents, most since 1992. CME FedWatch showing 30% odds of a rate hike by year-end.
5 min read
The Trade War That Was Killing Markets Is Now 'On Pause' — Investors Have 90 Days to Figure This Out
The US and China slashed tariffs by 115 percentage points in a Geneva surprise. Here's what the 90-day clock actually means, what was not resolved, and what happens if the next summit fails.
7 min read
ECB Holds at 2.00% — but June Hike Is Now the Base Case
ECB held at 2.00% on April 30. Energy-driven CPI and Schnabel signals put a June hike at 76% probability. Terminal rate: 2.25%.
8 min
US-China 90-Day Tariff Truce: What Markets Priced In and What They Missed
The 90-day tariff pause sent SPX up 9.5% in three days. Markets celebrated. I used the rally to hedge — because a pause is not a deal, and the structural.
7 min
Fed Holds at 4.25-4.50%: Three Things Markets Got Wrong About the Statement
The Fed held rates — expected. But the statement contained three signals markets initially misread. Powell's language on tariff inflation was more hawkish than.
8 min
The $300B AI Capex Cycle: What Microsoft, Google, and Meta Are Actually Building
Microsoft, Google, Meta, and Amazon will spend over $300B on AI infrastructure in 2026. This is not a bubble — it's an infrastructure cycle. I'm positioned in.
April 2026
8 min
Fed FOMC May 2026 Preview: Will the Fed Hold Rates Again?
FOMC meets June 16-17. Hold probability 70%, cut 28%. Weak GDP and sticky prices complicate the projections.
4 min
Federal Reserve Holds Rates at 3.50–3.75% in Powell's Final Meeting
The Fed maintained steady rates as Jerome Powell concludes his tenure. Kevin Warsh nomination advances amid market expectations of 1–2 cuts by year-end.
6 min
Powell's Final FOMC: The 8-4 Vote That Signals What Comes Next
Jerome Powell's last FOMC ended with rates held at 3.50–3.75% and an 8-4 internal vote. The split reveals more than the decision.