6 min read
Jackson Hole Put a Rate Hike Back on the Table
Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote never mentioned a cut. September hike odds went from 35.4% to 45.7% and the 2-year yield jumped to 4.298%.
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Brief takes on market-moving events.
August 2026
6 min read
Nvidia Beat Everything and Gave Half of It Back
Nvidia posted $96.2 billion in quarterly revenue, guided to $108 billion and forecast 70% growth for fiscal 2028. The stock rose 8.7%, then fell 4.6%.
6 min read
Salesforce Beat Revenue by 0.25% and the Stock Rose 22.6%
Salesforce revenue of $11.345 billion beat estimates by 0.25%. Adjusted EPS of $5.90 beat by 80%. The stock closed up 22.6% — its best day in years.
6 min read
AI Agents Just Became a Line Item in the Security Budget
CrowdStrike closed up 20.5% and Okta up 28.6% on the same day. Both cited the same driver: securing AI agents is now a separate budget line.
6 min read
Abercrombie Rose 35.7% and $1.75 of It Was a Tariff Refund
Abercrombie & Fitch posted $4.17 per share against guidance of $1.80-$2.00. Roughly $1.75 of it came from refunded tariffs, not from selling clothes.
6 min read
Dick's Core Business Grew 4.9% and the Stock Fell 30.7%
Dick's same-store sales rose 4.9%. The stock had its worst day on record, down 30.7%, because Foot Locker turned a good quarter into a guidance cut.
6 min read
Meta Paid $16.7 Billion and the Stock Went Up
Meta settled with 29 state attorneys general for $16.68 billion over teen social media harms. The stock rose 1.1% that day and 5.1% on the week.
6 min read
The Most Crushing Sanctions Ever Announced, and Oil Fell 6.5%
Washington announced a global sanctions plan against Iran on Monday. Brent ended the week at $88.29, down 6.5%, its risk premium bleeding out instead of rising.
6 min read
The 60-Day Clock Ran Out and Brent Went Through $91
The Versailles deadline expired on 17 August with no deal and no extension. Brent went above $90 to $91.36, and the Strait of Hormuz stayed shut.
June 2026
6 min read
Burry's MSFT Calls: What I Make of the Contrarian's Bet
Ruslan Averin on reports that Michael Burry took call options on Microsoft — why I'd treat the headline with caution before reading anything into it.
3 min read
The Dow Just Printed a Record on a Peace Deal — Here's What Actually Changed
The Dow closed at a record 51,671 on June 15 after Trump announced a U.S.–Iran deal. Ruslan Averin's read: the headline is real, but the move is about oil and rates, not optimism.
3 min read
SpaceX Prices Tonight: a $75 Billion IPO at a $1.77 Trillion Valuation — The Biggest Ever
SpaceX prices its IPO tonight at $135 a share — raising $75B+ at a $1.77 trillion valuation, 2.5x bigger than Saudi Aramco's record. Friday it trades on Nasdaq as SPCX. Here is what actually matters.
9 min read
Markets This Week: The S&P 500's 10-Week Streak Snapped — 5 Things That Moved Stocks, June 1–7, 2026
The historic winning streak is over. I walk through the five stories that actually moved markets this week — the S&P's first weekly loss in ten weeks, a blowout jobs report, Broadcom's AI warning, Lululemon's guidance cut, and Kevin Warsh's opening message at the Fed.
May 2026
5 min read
Four Fed Dissents. 3.8% CPI. 30% Rate Hike Odds. The Inflation Consensus Just Cracked.
April CPI +3.8% YoY — highest since May 2023. PPI +1.4% vs 0.5% estimate. Four Fed dissents, most since 1992. CME FedWatch showing 30% odds of a rate hike by year-end.
5 min read
The Trade War That Was Killing Markets Is Now 'On Pause' — Investors Have 90 Days to Figure This Out
The US and China slashed tariffs by 115 percentage points in a Geneva surprise. Here's what the 90-day clock actually means, what was not resolved, and what happens if the next summit fails.
7 min read
ECB Holds at 2.00% — but June Hike Is Now the Base Case
ECB held at 2.00% on April 30. Energy-driven CPI and Schnabel signals put a June hike at 76% probability. Terminal rate: 2.25%.
8 min
US-China 90-Day Tariff Truce: What Markets Priced In and What They Missed
The 90-day tariff pause sent SPX up 9.5% in three days. Markets celebrated. I used the rally to hedge — because a pause is not a deal, and the structural.
7 min
Fed Holds at 4.25-4.50%: Three Things Markets Got Wrong About the Statement
The Fed held rates — expected. But the statement contained three signals markets initially misread. Powell's language on tariff inflation was more hawkish than.
8 min
The $300B AI Capex Cycle: What Microsoft, Google, and Meta Are Actually Building
Microsoft, Google, Meta, and Amazon will spend over $300B on AI infrastructure in 2026. This is not a bubble — it's an infrastructure cycle. I'm positioned in.
April 2026
8 min
Fed FOMC May 2026 Preview: Will the Fed Hold Rates Again?
FOMC meets June 16-17. Hold probability 70%, cut 28%. Weak GDP and sticky prices complicate the projections.
4 min
Federal Reserve Holds Rates at 3.50–3.75% in Powell's Final Meeting
The Fed maintained steady rates as Jerome Powell concludes his tenure. Kevin Warsh nomination advances amid market expectations of 1–2 cuts by year-end.
6 min
Powell's Final FOMC: The 8-4 Vote That Signals What Comes Next
Jerome Powell's last FOMC ended with rates held at 3.50–3.75% and an 8-4 internal vote. The split reveals more than the decision.