S&P 7,108। VIX 18.92। 10 year 4.30%। Gold $4,689। Brent near $100। DXY 98.57।
That scoreboard। Here matter।
Earning：Better Than Expect
Q1 2026 earning season 10% complete। Number good——88% reporter beat EPS estimate well above 78% five-year avg। Blend earning growth run 13.2% mark sixth consecutive quarter double-digit grow।
Sector lead：Information Technology(+45%) Material(+24%) Financial(+15%)। Laggard：Healthcare(-9.8%) drag Merck acquisition charge से। Exclude Merck healthcare actually grow 2.8%।
Real test next week come। Microsoft Alphabet Amazon Meta all report April 30——same day FOMC decision। Four mega-cap and Fed meet afternoon। Volatile evening be।
Tesla：Beat EPS Miss Revenue
Tesla report Tuesday after close। Q1 EPS come $0.41 adjust versus $0.37 expect——clean beat। Revenue miss। Stock pop 4% extend trade then give all back when manage guide capex $5B above prior guide।
Don't have position Tesla। Stock trade on sentiment narrative not fundamental। लेकिन capex guide interesting——signal aggressive spend on AI infrastructure energy storage। Whether that spend generate return multi-year question है।
Bond और Dollar
10-year 4.30% story। Treasury volatility surge as curve un-invert। Bond ETF back fashion——TLT see largest week inflow since January।
Dollar continue weaken। DXY 98.57 lowest since early 2024। Weak dollar support US corporate earn through translate tailwind lift commodity price ease financial condition for EM। Remain position for continue dollar weakness through EM equity gold।
Gold Above $4,700
Gold pull back from recent high लेकिन hold above $4,700। Driver unchanged：central bank buy from China India Poland Turkey dedollarization flow और Iran risk premium। JPMorgan forecast $5,055 by Q4 2026।
Hold 8% gold। Not add here लेकिन not trim either।
— averin.comチームによる分析