Brent crude settled 7.6% lower at $104.77 a barrel on Monday 2 November and WTI fell 7.4% to $96.46, its biggest daily loss since 27 July, as mediators pushed talks on ending the US–Iran war, CNBC reported. Copper barely reacted: the London Metal Exchange official cash price settled at $14,449 a tonne on Friday 30 October, up 15.6% for the year and 2.7% below the 2026 high of $14,850 set on 17 August, according to LME data published by Westmetall and the International Copper Study Group (ICSG).
Financial analyst Ruslan Averin reads the split as the key to the "commodity supercycle" debate: oil trades a war premium that can leak out within days, copper is priced on mine supply that cannot be fixed in a year, and battery metals are falling.
The numbers: oil, metals and the index
| Market | Latest close | Date | Change since end-2025 | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent, front month | $104.77 a barrel | Mon 2 Nov | +72.2% | CNBC, Yahoo Finance |
| WTI, front month | $96.46 a barrel | Mon 2 Nov | +68.0% | CNBC, Yahoo Finance |
| LME copper, cash | $14,449 a tonne | Fri 30 Oct | +15.6% | LME via Westmetall |
| COMEX copper, front month | $6.46 a pound | Fri 30 Oct | +14.7% | Yahoo Finance |
| LME aluminium, cash | $3,114 a tonne | Fri 30 Oct | +4.9% | LME via Westmetall |
| LME nickel, cash | $15,240 a tonne | Fri 30 Oct | −7.6% | LME via Westmetall |
| Lithium carbonate, China | CNY 93,500 a tonne | Mon 2 Nov | −21.1% | Trading Economics |
| S&P GSCI | 754.41 | Fri 30 Oct | +37.5% | Yahoo Finance |
Year-to-date changes are my calculation from the 31 December 2025 closes in the same sources. COMEX copper's 2026 record close was $6.80 a pound on Wednesday 9 September, Yahoo Finance data show.
Oil: the war premium starts to leak out
President Donald Trump said Iran wants to "make a deal and that could happen", while Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said a deal is possible if Washington "demonstrates goodwill", CNBC reported. I covered the Qatari mediation and the Hormuz reopening plan in detail in Brent's fall on the Iran–Qatar talks.
"We do not anticipate a complete erosion of the risk premium via diplomacy headlines alone," Ryan McKay, director of commodity strategy at TD Securities, told CNBC. Even after Monday, Brent is about 72% above where it ended 2025, and the S&P GSCI, which is heavily weighted to energy, is up 37.5% for the year. Background: the Shaybah drone strike and Brent at $111 and Exxon and Chevron's third quarter.
Copper: the mine deficit is real, the refined deficit is not
The bull case for copper starts at the mine. World mine output fell 0.9% in the first eight months of 2026, the ICSG said on Friday 23 October. Indonesian concentrate production dropped 29% because Grasberg is still constrained by the September 2025 mud rush, DRC concentrate output fell 26% on reduced production at Kamoa after a 2025 seismic event, and Chilean mine output fell 7% on lower volumes at El Teniente, Escondida and Spence.
But the refined market tells a different story. The ICSG counted an apparent refined surplus of 218,000 tonnes in January–August. At its Lisbon meeting it forecast a surplus of about 104,000 tonnes for 2026 and 368,000 tonnes for 2027, in its release of Wednesday 14 October. Stocks at the LME, COMEX and Shanghai exchanges reached 992,865 tonnes at the end of September, the highest since June 2003, most of the increase on COMEX. LME stocks rose a further 24,600 tonnes in October to 274,000 tonnes, Westmetall data show.
The metal is tight at the mine and loose in the warehouse, and banks are betting on the mine. Goldman Sachs raised its end-2026 copper forecast to $14,700 a tonne from $13,735 and its 2027 average to $15,400 from $13,800, Newsquawk reported on Tuesday 20 October. That 2027 average sits 6.6% above Friday's LME cash settlement.
Demand: grids, EVs and AI data centres
The long-term demand numbers are large but slow. The International Energy Agency expects data-centre electricity use to more than double from about 415 TWh in 2024 to around 945 TWh by 2030, and notes that wait times for transformers and cables have roughly doubled in three years. In its Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 the IEA still projects a copper supply deficit of about 25% by 2035, down from around 30% in last year's edition as projects in the DRC and Zambia advance. The arithmetic is in copper and AI data centres.
Near-term demand is softer: ICSG data show Chinese apparent usage up 2.8% in January–August and usage outside China down 0.6%. China accounts for 59% of world refined copper use, so any supercycle still depends on one buyer.
Battery metals: the part of the story that broke
Lithium carbonate in China fell 25.2% over the past month to CNY 93,500 a tonne on Monday 2 November, Trading Economics data show, after SMM raised its estimate of Chinese inventories by 175,000 tonnes and Australia's Bald Hill mine restarted. LME nickel is down 7.6% this year and 21.6% below its 6 May high of $19,450, while aluminium, up 4.9% for the year, is 19.2% below its 2 June peak of $3,855. The June rally in metals on peace-deal hopes has largely reversed outside copper.
Supercycle or cyclical spike?
In my view, the answer differs by commodity.
- Copper looks structural as long as mine output keeps missing forecasts. The ICSG has already cut its 2026 mine growth estimate from 1.6% in April to 1.3%. If Grasberg and Kamoa recover on schedule and the 2027 refined surplus of 368,000 tonnes materialises, prices near $14,500 would be hard to defend.
- Oil looks cyclical. Its gain is a war premium. A signed deal that reopens Hormuz would remove most of it; a breakdown of talks would restore it.
- Battery metals look oversupplied. Lithium and nickel need a supply cut, not more demand headlines.
I would watch exchange stocks, not forecasts: a supercycle shows up as falling inventories with rising prices. Today copper has rising prices and the highest exchange stocks in more than two decades, which points to a supply-shock premium that can still correct. Ruslan Averin made a similar point in a column for vagon-restoran.kiev.ua on 2 November: the raw-materials sector is entering a phase of physical deficit, but prices will not rise in a straight line, because rates, the dollar, Chinese industry and inventories can force sharp corrections.
What it means for fuel prices in Ukraine
Ukrainian pump prices follow oil with a lag and through the hryvnia. On Monday 2 November the national average was UAH 90.08 a litre for A-95, UAH 104.50 for diesel and UAH 58.41 for autogas, according to A-95 Consulting Group data published by Minfin. A one-day drop in Brent will not reach the pump; a lasting one would ease diesel first. The monthly picture is in the fuel prices in Ukraine hub.
Ruslan Averin's columns on this topic
Recent columns by the author:
- The commodity supercycle: Ruslan Averin on the metals deficit and oil prices — vagon-restoran.kiev.ua, 2 November (in Russian)
- Growing demand for energy and the metals deficit for green energy: why raw materials are getting more expensive — obyavka.org.ua, November 2026 (in Russian)
What to watch next
- Tuesday 3 November: US midterm elections (what markets price).
- Every Wednesday, from 4 November: US EIA weekly crude inventories.
- Late November: the ICSG monthly release with September data, the next check on the refined surplus and exchange stocks.
- Tuesday 8 – Wednesday 9 December: the next Fed meeting.
- April 2027: the next ICSG forecast meeting in Lisbon, which will update the 2027 surplus of 368,000 tonnes.
Related: Brent falls on Iran–Qatar talks, copper and AI data centres and fuel prices in Ukraine.