In the week of 7 to 11 September the National Bank of Ukraine sold $1,194.85 million on the interbank market and bought nothing. That is the ninth consecutive week above $1 billion, a run that began on 13 July, and it is why the official rate on 15 September is UAH 44.62 to the dollar rather than something with a 46 handle. The euro fell 12 kopecks to 51.52 on the same day, because the dollar rose against the euro abroad ahead of a Federal Reserve hike.
Anyone holding hryvnia savings, a dollar deposit, or a mortgage in either currency is on one side of this ledger. Below is the ledger.
Nine weeks in one table
| Week | NBU sales, $ million |
|---|---|
| 13–17 July | 1,074 |
| 20–24 July | 1,014 |
| 27–31 July | 1,139 |
| 3–7 August | 1,019 |
| 10–14 August | 1,101 |
| 17–21 August | 1,194 |
| 24–28 August | 1,272 |
| 31 August – 4 September | 1,329 |
| 7–11 September | 1,195 |
About $10.3 billion in nine weeks. Since 5 January the NBU has sold $35.06 billion net; in all of 2025 it sold $36.1 billion. The summer alone, June to August, took $14.7 billion, which analyst Andriy Shevchyshyn has pointed out is more than the NBU sold in the seven years from January 2015 to February 2022 combined. The last week was 10% below the record week, which is the first decline in the series and the one number in this piece that argues for calm.
Where the dollars go
The demand has three sources, and only one of them is households.
Businesses. In the four days to Thursday last week the average daily net purchase by companies was $164 million, down from $210 million the week before. Fuel is the largest single line: diesel in Ukraine is UAH 95.94 a litre and fuel is 38.7% more expensive than a year ago, because the global diesel shortage does not stop at the border. Energy equipment for the winter, imported and paid in euros and dollars, is the second.
Households. Ukrainians have been net buyers of foreign currency for twelve months in a row. In August they bought $2,485 million and sold $1,923 million, a net $562 million, up from $447 million in July. The jump came after 11 August, when the NBU raised the monthly limit on cashless purchases from 50,000 to 200,000 hryvnia: cashless buying rose 40% in a month and the average daily net purchase went from $17 million to $27 million. Last week households took $41 million a day, a quarter of what businesses took.
The rate. Since 2 January the dollar has gone from 42.17 to 44.62, +5.8%; the euro from 49.55 to 51.52, +4.0%. The NBU is not defending a level. It is selling the amount needed to make the slope gentle, which is the "managed flexibility" it has run since October 2023.
What it costs
International reserves were $48.66 billion on 1 September, down 5.0% in August and 15.1% since 1 January, when they were $57.3 billion. That is four months of imports. August took $4.85 billion of net sales against $927 million of budget inflows through the World Bank and $1.63 billion from converting the EU defence loan tranche, while $722 million went to debt service and $285 million to the IMF.
The arithmetic only works because the money keeps coming: the NBU counts on about $54 billion of direct budget support in 2026 and forecasts reserves of "almost $70 billion" at year-end. That forecast requires the autumn tranches to arrive on time. If they do, the NBU can sell $1 billion a week through December and end the year with more reserves than it started. If they slip, the slope gets steeper.
Inflation, the rate decision and the budget
August inflation was 8.1% year on year, up from 7.7% in July and 7.2% in June; core inflation is also 8.1%. Fuel +8.1% in a month and +38.7% on the year did most of it, while vegetables fell 18% and fruit 12%. The NBU raised the policy rate to 15.5% on 30 July, citing the fuel shock and devaluation expectations, and forecasts 10% inflation at the end of 2026 and 6.9% in 2027.
The next rate decision is announced on Thursday 17 September, the day after the Fed. With inflation at 8.1% and a 15.5% rate, real rates are above 7%, which is why hryvnia government bonds yield 15–16% and the NBU has room to hold. A hike is unlikely with the last intervention week already smaller; a cut is impossible with households buying $27 million a day.
The fiscal side gives the honest forecast. The 2027–2029 budget declaration assumes an average of 44.4 for 2026, 45.8 at the end of 2026, 48.3 at the end of 2027 and 50.1 at the end of 2028, with inflation of 9.2% this year and 8.9% next. The draft 2027 budget goes to parliament on 16 September and will carry its own number. The government, in other words, plans on a hryvnia that loses 5–6% a year, which is exactly what it has done since January.
What to do with it
| Holding | What the numbers say |
|---|---|
| Hryvnia deposit or OVDP at 15–16% | Beats a 5.8% devaluation plus 8.1% inflation; keeps its edge unless the slope doubles |
| Dollar cash | Earns nothing; has gained 5.8% this year in hryvnia terms, roughly what the budget assumes for next year |
| Dollar OVDP at about 4% | The hedge with a coupon: rate move plus 4% versus 15.5% in hryvnia; wins if the year-end rate is above roughly 46 |
| Buying dollars now at 44.81 cash | Paying the spread for a 3% move the government already expects by December |
In analyst Ruslan Averin's view the nine weeks are a cost, not a crisis. The NBU is spending reserves it expects to be replaced, at a pace that is now falling, to buy a slope the budget has already written down. The risk is not the hryvnia at 45 in December; the budget assumes that. The risk is a delayed tranche in October, and that is the line to watch, not the weekly sales.
Related: the NBU rate at 15.5%, the hryvnia at 45 in August, where to hold savings at 44.76, diesel at a record and 34 years of service for a pension from 2027.