Shell (LSE:SHEL) and TotalEnergies (EPA:TTE) both report third-quarter 2026 results on Thursday 29 October. Shell's date comes from its own forthcoming-events calendar in the Q2 report. TotalEnergies' date is from Benzinga's earnings calendar. Going into the prints, Shell closed in London on Tuesday 27 October at 3,927.5 pence, down 1.80% on the day but up 43.3% from 2,740 pence at the end of 2025. TotalEnergies closed in Paris the same day at €83.00, down 1.00%, and 49.3% above its 2025 year-end close of €55.59 (closing prices from StockAnalysis and Yahoo Finance).
Both companies have already pre-released most of the quarter. Shell published its update note on 7 October, TotalEnergies its main indicators on 15 October. So Thursday is less about the profit and more about cash returns and October.
What the trading updates already told us
Crude averaged less than in the second quarter, while refining and LNG earned far more.
TotalEnergies puts the Q3 Brent average at $97.0 a barrel, down from $103.8 in Q2. The EIA's monthly Brent spot averages tell the same story: $83.76 in July, $91.08 in August and $114.16 in September. The quarter began below $85 and ended above $110, which makes the exit rate as important as the average.
Shell: a $42 refining margin, ARC volumes and the buyback
Shell's update note guides an indicative refining margin of $42 a barrel, against $24 in Q2. Sharecast reported Shell describing that as a record high. Refinery utilisation is guided at 93–97%, down from 102%, partly because low Rhine water levels limited the Rheinland refinery. The chemicals margin falls to $208 a tonne from $270. Shell also expects lower Marketing earnings than in Q2.
Integrated Gas production is guided at 740–780 thousand barrels of oil equivalent a day, up from 631 thousand in Q2. That rise includes ARC Resources, the Canadian Montney producer whose acquisition completed on 2 September. LNG liquefaction is guided at 7.2–7.6 million tonnes, against 7.7 million in Q2. Upstream production is guided at 1,735–1,835 thousand barrels a day of oil equivalent, against 1,824 thousand.
Shell's Q2 adjusted earnings were $9.84 billion, or $1.76 a share, up from $6.92 billion in Q1 and $4.26 billion a year earlier. Cash flow from operations was $21.4 billion and net debt fell to $41.8 billion, a gearing ratio of 18.7%.
The buyback is the contested line. In Q2 Shell started a $4.2 billion programme, made of $3.0 billion of new buybacks plus $1.2 billion left over from the Q1 programme, which Shell had paused at $1.8 billion when it agreed to buy ARC. The programme is due to finish by the Q3 results. Shell will decide on Thursday what comes next. The update note also warns of a roughly $2.5 billion cash outflow from earlier-than-usual payments for German emissions certificates, and says ARC will raise net debt.
TotalEnergies: refining "exceptional", LNG sharply higher
TotalEnergies' European refining marker averaged $33.2 a barrel in Q3, against $13.5 in Q2. The company says Downstream results and cash flow are "expected to reach exceptional levels". Refining and chemicals cash flow is guided about $2 billion above Q2, on a 10% rise in refinery throughput. Its average LNG price rose to $12.28 per million Btu from $10.20, and Integrated LNG results are "expected to rise sharply". Hydrocarbon production is guided at 2.45–2.50 million barrels of oil equivalent a day, up from 2.395 million in Q2.
That $2 billion figure is consistent with the company's own sensitivities. In the Q2 release, each $1 a barrel on the refining marker is worth about $0.4 billion a year of cash flow. A $19.7 rise over one quarter works out at roughly $2 billion. On the same table, $10 a barrel on liquids prices is worth $2.3 billion a year of adjusted net operating income. Brent's $6.8 fall therefore costs the upstream business something like $0.4 billion in the quarter. Refining more than covers that.
Q2 adjusted net income was $6.0 billion, or $2.68 a share, with $9.8 billion of cash flow and gearing of 13.1%. Shareholder returns for the rest of the year are already set. The board authorised up to $1.5 billion of buybacks for Q3. At the 28 September strategy day it then approved $2.5 billion for Q4 and $2–2.5 billion for Q1 2027. It also adopted a policy of raising the dividend by more than 5% a year from 2026 to 2030, with gearing expected below 10% by the end of 2026. The second interim dividend was €0.90 a share, up 5.9%.
What consensus expects
Shell's own consensus, compiled by Vara Research, was due on 21 October, and I could not access it. The Wall Street consensus shown by Benzinga is $3.65 per American depositary share for Shell. Each ADS represents two ordinary shares, so that is about $1.83 a share against $1.76 in Q2. On Q2's share count that implies adjusted earnings of roughly $10.2 billion; that is my calculation, not a published figure. For TotalEnergies, Benzinga reports analysts expecting $3.40 a share, against $1.77 a year earlier and $2.68 in Q2. That implies adjusted net income of about $7.6 billion.
So the market expects a small rise for Shell and a big one for TotalEnergies, in line with the two updates: Shell flagged weaker Marketing, chemicals and utilisation, TotalEnergies sharp gains in refining and LNG.
Oil above $100: Q3 is the past, Q4 is the guide
Q4 started higher. Brent front-month futures settled at $108.82 on 21 October, the day of the drone strike near Saudi Aramco's Shaybah field. They then settled at $116.72 on Friday 23 October and at $113.88 on Tuesday 27 October, according to Yahoo Finance data. If prices stay anywhere near there, the fourth quarter will be stronger than the third on crude alone. The link from $100 oil to inflation and rates is the other side of the same trade.
On the calls I would listen for Q4 refining margins, Hormuz-related volume losses and any figure for October trading.
The windfall-tax line
In September six EU governments asked for an EU-wide mechanism to tax energy profits, and the Commission answered that the tax "is in the hands of member states" (our September report). Shell already booked a $509 million charge related to the UK Energy Profits Levy in the first half. A $42 refining margin and "exceptional" downstream results are exactly what supporters of a new levy will quote. A chief executive's comment on new levies could move the shares more than a small beat.
Five lines that decide the reaction
- Shell's next buyback. In analyst Ruslan Averin's view, a new programme of $3.5 billion or more would show that ARC and the emissions-certificate outflow do not crowd out returns. A cut toward $3 billion or below would read as caution.
- Shell's net debt after ARC. Gearing above about 20% would make a bigger buyback harder to defend.
- TotalEnergies' Q3 adjusted net income against about $7.6 billion. The upside is in Downstream and LNG trading.
- TotalEnergies' Q4 buyback. It is fixed at $2.5 billion, so look for any hint of upside if gearing falls below 10% early.
- Q4 guidance on refining and LNG. These will matter more than the Q3 averages.
Scenarios
| Outcome | Shell | TotalEnergies |
|---|---|---|
| Beat plus bigger returns | buyback ≥ $3.5 billion, adjusted earnings above $10.2 billion | above $7.6 billion, buyback upside hinted |
| In line | about $3 billion buyback, earnings near consensus | earnings near consensus, returns as announced |
| Disappointment | buyback cut, net debt jump from ARC | weaker LNG trading, cautious Q4 tone |
Both stocks are up more than 40% this year, so I expect the bar to be high. A quarter in line with consensus could still see shares slip, as they did on 27 October with Brent down 1.7%.
Related: Brent above $111 after the Shaybah strike, the EU windfall-tax fight and what $100 Brent means for inflation and rates.