CVS Health reports third-quarter 2026 results before the US market opens on Wednesday 4 November and holds its call at 8:00 a.m. Eastern time, the company said on 5 October. Analysts expect adjusted earnings of $1.62 a share, up 1.3% from $1.60 a year earlier, on revenue of $105.04 billion, up 2.1%, according to the Zacks consensus published on Nasdaq.
Financial analyst Ruslan Averin notes that the number that will move the stock is not earnings per share but Aetna's medical benefit ratio (MBR), the share of premiums paid out in medical claims. The Zacks consensus puts it at 92.4%, against 92.8% a year ago and 87.4% in the second quarter. CVS closed on Monday 2 November at $88.51, according to Nasdaq data: up 11.5% in 2026, but 20.0% below its closing high of $110.60 on 21 July.
The bar: consensus against the year-ago quarter
| Line | Q3 2026 expectation | Q3 2025 actual | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $1.62 (range $1.54–1.68) | $1.60 | Zacks via Nasdaq; CVS |
| Revenue | $105.04 billion | $102.87 billion | Zacks via Nasdaq; CVS |
| Aetna MBR | 92.4% | 92.8% | Zacks via Nasdaq; CVS |
| Medical membership | 25.99 million | 26.7 million | Zacks via Nasdaq; CVS |
| Medicare Advantage members | 4.20 million | 4.27 million | Zacks via Nasdaq |
Year-ago figures come from CVS's third-quarter 2025 release, which also carried a $5.7 billion goodwill impairment and a GAAP loss of $3.13 a share. Nine analysts sit behind the $1.62 estimate, unchanged for 60 days, Zacks said. CVS has beaten the consensus in each of the last four quarters, according to Nasdaq's earnings-surprise table.
Why a flat EPS forecast after two quarters of $2.57 and $2.58
CVS earned $2.57 of adjusted EPS in the first quarter and $2.58 in the second. The drop to $1.62 is the shape CVS itself has guided: insurers' medical costs usually rise through the year, so the second half carries more claims.
On Wednesday 5 August CVS raised its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $7.90–8.10, from $7.30–7.50, and its revenue outlook to at least $414.0 billion. First-half adjusted EPS was $5.16, so the guide implies $2.74–2.94 for the second half. The consensus of $1.62 for the third quarter and $1.26 for the fourth, per Zacks on Nasdaq, adds up to $2.88, near the top of that range. The full-year consensus is $8.02.
The market did not like the raise. The stock fell 5.1% that day, from $104.42 to $99.12, Nasdaq closing data show. Reuters reported that the 60-cent lift was smaller than the second-quarter beat and quoted Stephanie Link of Hightower Advisors: "The guidance came in lighter than what the buyside was expecting." CVS also set 2027 adjusted EPS of at least $8.44; the Zacks consensus on Nasdaq is $8.51.
Aetna: the medical benefit ratio decides the morning
The second-quarter MBR of 87.4% beat the analysts' 90.03% estimate, Reuters reported. CVS's own presentation explains part of it: $500 million of changes in prior-year estimates, including the individual exchange risk adjustment, plus "continued pockets of core outperformance" in Medicare. Prior years' claim reserves developed favourably by $1.2 billion in the first half, the release shows.
CVS guides a full-year MBR of 89.75%, plus or minus 25 basis points, improved from 90.5% plus or minus 50 basis points in May. The first half ran at 86.0%. If premiums are split evenly across the year, the guide implies a second half near 93.5%, by my calculation. A third-quarter print near the 92.4% consensus fits that path; anything above 93% would signal that the cautious view was right.
The segment guidance is blunter. CVS guides Health Care Benefits adjusted operating income of $5.03–5.37 billion for 2026. The segment already earned $5.47 billion in the first half, so the guide implies an adjusted operating loss of roughly $0.1 billion to $0.4 billion in the second half. A loss in the third quarter would be in the plan. A profit would be a beat.
What peers have already printed
Three big insurers reported in October; all beat on medical costs:
- UnitedHealth (13 October): medical care ratio 88.4%, against 89.9% a year earlier; adjusted EPS $4.69; 2026 guidance raised to at least $20.50; see our UnitedHealth Q3 review.
- Elevance Health (21 October): benefit expense ratio 90.6%, 70 basis points better, "driven by better performance in Medicare Advantage and Individual ACA"; adjusted EPS $6.99; guidance raised to at least $29.00.
- Centene (27 October): health benefits ratio 92.7%, "better than expectations, driven by the Medicare segment"; adjusted EPS $0.58; guidance raised to more than $5.20.
Humana is expected to report on Thursday 6 November, per Nasdaq. So far pricing and benefit cuts are working, not falling cost trend. That suits Aetna, which exited the individual exchange business in 2026.
Medicare Advantage 2027: stars and rates
On 8 October Aetna said more than 69% of its Medicare Advantage members are in 2027 plans rated 4 stars or higher by CMS. That protects bonus payments in 2028. The rate side is tighter. In April the government set an average increase of 2.48% in 2027 payments, Reuters reported, and chief financial officer Brian Newman said in May that "the increase still does not match cost estimates for next year."
Those payments and pharmacy benefit rules are set in Washington, which makes the Tuesday 3 November vote relevant; see our midterms market guide.
Caremark and the stores
Health Services, home of the Caremark pharmacy benefit manager, earned $1.73 billion of adjusted operating income in the second quarter. CVS kept its 2026 guide for the segment at a minimum of $7.25 billion, which reflects "our updated view of 340B", the discounted-drug programme. Reuters reported that Caremark executive Prem Shah said retention was trending "slightly lower than our historical performance" and that the unit expects to lose clients in 2027.
Pharmacy and Consumer Wellness, the retail arm with about 9,000 pharmacies as of 30 June, raised its 2026 guide to at least $6.40 billion. Prescriptions filled rose 4.3% in the second quarter, helped by Rite Aid files. CVS also added a $29 MinuteClinic virtual visit for GLP-1 prescriptions, a link to the drugmakers covered in our Eli Lilly preview.
What I would watch, and the scenario logic
In my view, five numbers decide the reaction:
- Aetna MBR against 92.4%. Below 92% with little prior-year reserve help is a clean beat; above 93% revives the cost story.
- Full-year 2026 adjusted EPS. A raise above $8.10 would show the second half is not as weak as guided; a hold at $7.90–8.10 with a big beat repeats August.
- The 2027 floor of $8.44. Any lift toward the $8.51 consensus matters more for the stock than the quarter.
- Caremark retention and 340B. Management's first numbers for 2027 client losses.
- Days claims payable, 41.7 days at the end of June, down 1.2 days from March. A further drop would make a low MBR look less reliable.
The constructive case is a beat, an MBR at or below 92% and a 2027 bar above $8.44. The negative case is August again. With the stock at 11.1 times forward earnings on Zacks data, against 16.2 times for the industry, the bar is lower than in July. The broader backdrop is covered in rates higher for longer.
What to watch next
- Wednesday 4 November, before the open: CVS results; call at 8:00 a.m. Eastern time.
- Thursday 6 November: Humana's expected third-quarter results, per Nasdaq's calendar.
- 15 October to 7 December: Medicare open enrollment, which sets Aetna's 2027 membership.
- February 2027: fourth-quarter results; last year CVS reported on 10 February.
Related: UnitedHealth Q3 2026 results, Eli Lilly Q3 2026 preview and the midterm elections and markets.