The National Bank of Ukraine announces its next monetary policy decision on Thursday 29 October 2026, at a press briefing at 14:00 Kyiv time, after Monetary Policy Committee consultations on 27–28 October. The key rate is 16%, raised from 15.5% on 17 September.
This meeting carries more weight than the September one. October is one of the four meetings a year at which the NBU Board decides on the basis of a new macroeconomic forecast. The revised forecast will be presented at the 29 October briefing, and the full Inflation Report follows on 5 November, according to the NBU's published schedule.
The numbers going into the meeting, as of Thursday 22 October:
- Key rate: 16% since 18 September.
- Inflation: 10.0% year on year in September, core 8.8%.
- International reserves: $47.1 billion on 1 October, down 3.2% in a month.
- NBU dollar sales: $1,249.9 million in the week to 16 October, the fourteenth week in a row above $1 billion.
- Official rate for 22 October: UAH 45.0256 per dollar and UAH 50.5601 per euro.
What the NBU promised in September
The September press release did not commit to a path. It said the NBU "stands ready to respond flexibly to further changes in the balance of risks": if risks to prices and inflation expectations "intensify significantly", it will deploy additional measures; if the security situation cools consumer demand and the labour market, it "will consider easing monetary conditions".
The Monetary Policy Committee summary published on 28 September shows how split the room was. Seven members supported the rise to 16% and three preferred to stay at 15.5%. On the path ahead:
- Seven members said 16% creates sufficiently tight conditions, so further tightening "will not be needed", and the rate stays unchanged over the coming months, with cautious easing possible in 2027.
- Two members said the October forecast "may envisage at least one additional rate increase".
- One member saw grounds to start cutting as early as the end of 2026.
That was before the September inflation print.
Inflation: September broke the July path
Consumer prices rose 10.0% year on year in September, after 8.1% in August, with a 2.1% jump in a single month. Core inflation rose to 8.8%. In its commentary the NBU said headline inflation "significantly exceeded" the forecast path of the July Inflation Report, and core inflation also came in above forecast.
The breakdown from the NBU:
- Fuel: up 46.2% year on year, as swings in global petroleum product prices reached wholesale and retail.
- Raw food: up 6.7%; processed food up 10.7%.
- Services: up 13.7%, led by university tuition and rents, as internal migration increases.
- Administered prices: up 13.6%, from public transport fares, water tariffs and alcohol.
The July forecast put inflation at 10% for December 2026. September reached that level three months early. The NBU itself warns that higher transport and storage costs and damaged warehouses "will continue to fuel inflationary pressures in the coming months".
Expectations matter as much as the print. In the NBU's third-quarter business survey of 664 companies, firms expect 11.5% inflation over the next twelve months, almost unchanged from 11.6% in the second quarter, and an average rate of UAH 46.90 per dollar, up from 46.12.
Governor Andriy Pyshnyy framed the task in a speech at the IMF's regional economic outlook event on 16 October: the key job of central banks is not to let temporary supply shocks turn into a persistent de-anchoring of inflation expectations.
Reserves and the hryvnia
The hryvnia is held near 45 by the NBU's sales of dollars, not by market calm. In the week of 12–16 October the NBU sold $1,249.9 million and bought $0.3 million, according to its interventions data. Since the start of the year it has sold $41.27 billion.
International reserves were $47.1 billion on 1 October, enough for 4.0 months of future imports, according to the NBU. They fell 3.2% in September as the NBU sold $5.45 billion on the FX market, more than the inflows from partners.
The official rate:
- 2 January: UAH 42.1701 per dollar.
- 14 October: UAH 45.0802, the weakest official level for the hryvnia so far.
- 22 October: UAH 45.0256, about 6.8% weaker than at the start of the year.
A higher rate is one of the NBU's tools to keep hryvnia savings attractive and limit demand for dollars. The September release said the July hike had already supported demand for hryvnia deposits and government bonds, "which limited pressures on the FX market". Detailed views on the rate are in the dollar exchange rate forecast for Ukraine.
Two scenarios for 29 October
| Hold at 16% | Hike by 0.5 percentage points or more | |
|---|---|---|
| Signal | Majority view of September holds; new forecast keeps 16% longer | Forecast revised up; at least one more increase priced in |
| Deposits | Small upward drift continues, mostly at smaller banks | Banks reprice 3–12-month offers up over several weeks |
| OVDP | Primary yields near current levels | Ministry of Finance likely has to pay more at auctions |
| Mortgages | Market loans unchanged; єОселя rates fixed by the programme | Market loans dearer; єОселя rates still fixed by the programme |
| Hryvnia | Interventions keep doing the work | Marginal support for hryvnia assets |
A cut looks remote with inflation at 10.0% and only one committee member arguing for easing before the September print.
In analyst Ruslan Averin's view, the base case is a hold at 16% with a higher inflation forecast and a longer stay at that level, with a 0.5 percentage point increase as the main alternative. The deciding factors are how far the new forecast lifts year-end inflation above 10% and whether the October data on fuel and food confirm the September jump or soften it.
What it means for savers and borrowers
Hryvnia deposits. Interest is taxed at 23%, 18% personal income tax plus the 5% military levy. An illustrative 12-month deposit at 14% leaves 10.78% after tax, a real return of about 0.7% against 10.0% inflation. Bank offers by term are tracked in deposit rates in Ukrainian banks.
OVDP. Interest on government bonds is tax-free for individuals. At the 20 October auction the Ministry of Finance placed paper maturing in 329 days at a weighted average 15.01% and paper maturing in 882 days at 16.38%, raising about UAH 2.03 billion, according to NBU auction data. Five weeks earlier, on 15 September, comparable one-year and long paper went at 15.17% and 16.10%. After 10.0% inflation, 15.01% is a real yield of about 4.6%.
Mortgages. єОселя rates of 3% for military personnel, veterans, medics, teachers and scientists and 7% for others eligible are fixed by the state programme for the first ten years and do not follow the NBU. In the NBU's lending survey published on 21 October, banks reported falling demand for mortgages for the first time since the end of 2024, while approval rates for household loans, mainly mortgages, rose.
The investigation. Separately, NABU searched NBU premises on 21 October; no one has been detained or served a notice of suspicion, and the presumption of innocence applies, as covered in our earlier report.
What to watch
- 27–28 October: Monetary Policy Committee consultations.
- 29 October, 14:00 Kyiv time: the decision, the press release and the new macro forecast.
- 5 November: the full Inflation Report with the new path for the key rate, which is 16% today.
- 9 November: the committee summary, which shows how many members voted for each option.
- Weekly: NBU intervention data, a gauge of dollar demand before and after the decision.
Related: the NBU decision of 17 September on deposits, OVDP and mortgages, Ukraine inflation in September 2026 and the dollar and the hryvnia in October 2026.