Dollar to Hryvnia Forecast 2026–2027: Official Rate, Cash Market and What Banks and Analysts Expect, Updated Monthly

The dollar to hryvnia forecast for the rest of 2026 sits in a narrow band: the main Ukrainian forecasters expect UAH 45.6–46.3 per dollar at the end of the year, against an official rate of UAH 44.8871 on 17 October. For the end of 2027 the published range is UAH 48.3–49.2. The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) does not publish an exchange-rate forecast at all.

This page is updated every month at the same address.

In short

As of 17 October 2026:

• Official rate: UAH 44.8871 per dollar for 16–18 October and UAH 44.8625 for Monday 19 October (NBU).
• Record: UAH 45.0802 on 14 October 2026, the weakest official hryvnia rate on record.
• Over 12 months the dollar gained 7.8%, from UAH 41.6358 on 17 October 2025. Since the start of 2026 it gained 5.9%.
• End of 2026: ICU expects UAH 45.8, Dragon Capital about 46.0; the average of six analyst teams in the August survey was 46.0.
• End of 2027: ICU expects UAH 49.2, the government 48.3. The draft 2027 budget assumes an average of UAH 47.1.
• NBU: no exchange-rate forecast. The key rate is 16%, and the next decision is due on 29 October.

The dollar rate today: numbers as of 17 October 2026

Banks sell cash dollars about 30 kopecks above the official rate, and the gap between their buying and selling prices is about 49 kopecks. On the cash market the spread is narrower, about 15 kopecks.

How the rate moved over the last 12 months

Official NBU rate on the last day of each month:

The dollar rose every month from November to June, by no more than 1.36% in a month, then eased in July and August, down to UAH 44.4553 on 2 September. It climbed again in September and set its record on 14 October. ICU describes this regime as "managed and slow devaluation", with monthly moves that rarely exceed 1.0–1.5%.

Dollar forecasts by source

In the August round organised by the Centre for Economic Strategy (CES), the six teams gave these end-2026 numbers: Concorde Capital 46.0, Dragon Capital 46.0, ICU 45.8, IER with the German Economic Team 45.6, the Kyiv School of Economics 46.3 and the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) 46.0. Six months earlier the same kind of survey gave a range of 43.0–44.9.

Forecasts have drifted up over the year. In October 2025 ICU expected UAH 42.4 at the end of 2025, which proved accurate (the actual rate was 42.3878), and UAH 44.5 at the end of 2026; it now expects 45.8. The 2026 budget was calculated on an average of UAH 45.7, while the actual average so far is about 44.12. A budget rate is a basis for revenue calculations, not a market call.

What moves the dollar rate

• NBU reserves and interventions. Reserves fell 18% in the first nine months of 2026, to $47.1 billion, according to ICU, which expects at least $22 billion of budget support by the end of the year to lift them to about $60 billion.
• Money for 2027. Partners have pledged no more than $25 billion of budget support for next year against a need of over $50 billion, ICU estimates. The size of that gap is the main risk for the end-2027 forecast.
• Trade. Goods exports fell 19% year on year in August, while imports rose 23%.
• Inflation and the key rate. The key rate is 16%; ICU expects a rise to 16.5% on 29 October. Consumer prices rose 10.0% year on year in September.
• The 2028 scenario. ICU warns that if the financing gap for 2028 looks unresolved, the NBU would have to speed up devaluation in the second half of 2027.

What a household or saver can do with this forecast

• Count the cost of the exchange. Buying and selling back at the bank cash rates of 44.70 and 45.19 loses about 1.1%; on the cash market at 45.00 and 45.15, about 0.3%.
• Compare the deposit with the devaluation. The 12-month UIRD index for hryvnia deposits is 14.09%, or 10.85% after the 23% tax on interest. The dollar index is 1.13%, or 0.87% after tax. UAH 100,000 in a hryvnia deposit becomes about UAH 110,850 in a year; converted at 45.19 and placed in dollars it becomes $2,232.13. The two break even at about UAH 49.7 per dollar in October 2027, above ICU's 49.2 for the end of 2027.
• Look at government bonds. Military bonds maturing in September 2027 sold at 15.16–15.18% in September, with no tax on the income.
• Keep dollars as insurance, not as income. In analyst Ruslan Averin's view, the published forecasts argue for holding the core of hryvnia savings in instruments that pay above inflation and keeping a dollar share for the risk ICU itself names: faster devaluation if external money for 2028 does not arrive.

Current deposit rates by bank are tracked on a separate page: deposit rates in Ukrainian banks.

What will the dollar rate be at the end of 2026?

The forecasts published in August–October 2026 cluster at UAH 45.6–46.3, with ICU at 45.8 and Dragon Capital at about 46.0. From the official rate of 44.8871 on 17 October, ICU's figure means the dollar gains about 2% in ten weeks. Our analysts watch the 45.08 record of 14 October: a sustained rate above it would bring the top of the range into play.

What dollar rate is forecast for 2027?

ICU expects UAH 49.2 at the end of 2027 and an average of UAH 47.1. The government uses the same average of 47.1 in the draft budget and 48.3 for the end of the year, so the gap between the two is 90 kopecks. From ICU's end-2026 level of 45.8, the 49.2 is a further rise of about 7.4%.

Does the NBU forecast the dollar rate?

No. The NBU runs a regime of managed flexibility and targets inflation of 5%. Its Inflation Report forecasts prices, growth and reserves, but not the exchange rate. The next rate decision and updated macro forecast are due on 29 October 2026.

Read also: ICU's forecast to 2027: UAH 49.2 and inflation of 12%, the dollar in October: NBU interventions and forecasts, the dollar at 45 in September: forecasts and savings, nine weeks of NBU dollar sales, hryvnia at 44.76: where to keep savings and hryvnia at 45 in August.