The National Association of Realtors publishes September existing-home sales on Tuesday 13 October 2026 at 10:00 a.m. Eastern time (14:00 GMT), as set in NAR's 2026 release schedule. The consensus on the Trading Economics calendar is a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.96 million, against 3.98 million in August. That would be a second month below 4 million and roughly 2.9% fewer sales than the 4.08 million of September 2025.
The number matters less for what it says about September than for what it cannot yet show. Most September closings were contracts signed in July and August, when the 30-year mortgage rate averaged about 6.67%. Since then the rate has jumped to 7.40%, the highest since November 2023. The report is a look in the rear-view mirror at the moment the road ahead turned steeper.
Update, 13 October 2026: the September data
September existing-home sales came in slightly above expectations. NAR reported a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.99 million, against the 3.96 million consensus quoted above (some surveys had 3.95 million), a beat of about 30,000, or 0.8%. Sales rose 1.5% from August, which NAR revised down to 3.93 million from the 3.98 million first reported, and fell 2.2% from 4.08 million in September 2025. Single-family sales rose 2.0% to 3.64 million; condos and co-ops fell 2.8% to 350,000. The South and West gained 2.8% each, the Midwest was flat and the Northeast fell 2.1%.
| Metric | Consensus / prior | Actual |
|---|---|---|
| Sales, SAAR | 3.96M consensus; 3.98M August, first estimate | 3.99M |
| Change m/m | −0.5% implied | +1.5% (vs revised 3.93M) |
| Change y/y | −2.9% implied | −2.2% |
| Median price | ~$419,000 seasonal estimate | $417,500 |
| Median price y/y | +1.6% (August) | +1.3% |
| Inventory | 1.62M (August, first estimate) | 1.60M |
| Months' supply | 4.9 (August, first estimate) | 4.8 |
| First-time buyers | 30% | 31% |
| All-cash sales | 27% | 27% |
| Median days on market | 31 | 33 |
On the five lines the preview flagged, the median price of $417,500 stayed above last year's $412,300, extending the run of annual gains to 39 months. Inventory rose 1.9% in the month and 4.6% on the year, but months' supply held at 4.8, below the 5.0 threshold. First-time buyers edged up to 31% and the cash share was unchanged at 27%, so neither line shows the rate spike yet. Individual investors and second-home buyers jumped to 20% from 15%. NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun said: "Despite the small monthly gain on a seasonally adjusted basis, August and September marked the two slowest months for home sales this year." He added: "Further increases in mortgage rates in recent weeks mean fewer buyers can qualify to purchase a home."
What it changes. Little for the outlook. September closings were financed at an average 30-year rate of 6.86%, the Freddie Mac figure NAR cites; Freddie Mac's latest weekly survey, dated 8 October, showed 7.40%. Analysts note that the 3.99 million print predates that jump, so the September Pending Home Sales Index on 20 October remains the first real test. Longer days on market and rising inventory give buyers more room to negotiate.
August in detail: fewer sales, more homes
NAR's August report, released on 10 September, showed sales down 2.0% from July to 3.98 million and down 1.2% from a year earlier. It was the first pace under 4 million since June 2025. Single-family sales fell 1.9% to 3.62 million; condos and co-ops fell 2.7% to 360,000.
The median price was $429,100, up 1.6% from $422,400 a year earlier, the 38th consecutive month of annual gains. Regionally the picture split: the Northeast median rose 4.3% to $556,900 and the Midwest 3.3% to $340,400, while the South gained only 0.7% to $366,500 and the West slipped 0.2% to $619,100.
Supply is the bigger change. Inventory rose 3.2% in the month to 1.62 million homes, up 5.9% on the year and above 1.6 million for the first time since November 2019. Months' supply climbed to 4.9 from 4.6, a level the National Association of Home Builders' economists described as the highest since November 2015. Median time on market lengthened to 31 days from 29.
The buyer mix shifted towards households that need a mortgage. First-time buyers took 30% of sales, up from 28% a year earlier. All-cash deals were 27%, against 28% in August 2025. Investors and second-home buyers fell to 15% from 21%. Distressed sales held at 2%. Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist, summed up the month in one line: "Mortgage rates and home sales move in opposite directions."
The mortgage rate path since August
Freddie Mac's weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey shows how quickly that relationship has turned against buyers. The 30-year fixed rate averaged 6.66% on 27 August. It then rose every week: 6.71% on 3 September, 6.76% on 10 September, 6.95% on 17 September, 7.03% on 24 September, 7.28% on 1 October and 7.40% on 8 October. A year earlier, on 9 October 2025, it was 6.30%. The 2026 low was 5.98% on 26 February. The 15-year rate reached 6.73%.
The driver is the bond market. The 10-year Treasury yield reached 5% in mid-September, the highest since 2007, and closed at 5.22% on Thursday 8 October, up from 4.67% on 27 August. The Federal Reserve raised its target range to 3.75–4.00% on 16 September. Mortgage rates did more than follow: the gap between the 30-year mortgage rate and the 10-year yield widened from about 1.99 percentage points at the end of August to 2.18 percentage points in the latest week, which typically reflects mortgage-bond investors demanding extra compensation for rate volatility.
For a buyer, the move is concrete. On August's median price of $429,100 with 20% down, the monthly principal and interest payment is about $2,208 at 6.67% and about $2,377 at 7.40%, roughly $169 a month or 7.7% more. Against the February low of 5.98%, the same house costs about $323 a month more to finance.
Pending home sales: the leading indicator
Closings lag contract signings by one to two months, so NAR's Pending Home Sales Index is the best guide to Tuesday's figure. Signings rose 0.3% in August but were 4.7% lower than a year earlier, after a revised 2.6% fall in July, according to Trading Economics. The South (+2.3%) and West (+3.0%) gained in the month; the Northeast (−4.2%) and Midwest (−1.6%) fell. Yun noted that contract signings are "roughly 30% below where they were in the years leading up to the pandemic."
A weak July and a flat August point to September closings near August's pace, which is what the 3.96 million consensus assumes. The September Pending Home Sales Index, due on Tuesday 20 October, will be the first NAR series to capture contracts signed after the rate crossed 7%.
Private data already lean that way. Realtor.com's September report, published on 30 September, showed active listings up 5.4% on the year to 1,161,615, 20.8% of listings with a price cut, a median list price of $419,250 (down 1.4% year on year) and the stock of homes under contract down 4.1% year on year. Chief economist Danielle Hale said buyers "are gaining leverage, but higher mortgage rates are limiting how much of that opportunity they can use."
The numbers that decide the reaction
Five lines in the release carry the signal:
- Headline sales. A print near 3.96 million is priced in. A reading at or below 3.90 million would suggest that the summer slowdown was deeper than pending sales implied; a return above 4.0 million would mean July and August contracts closed better than expected.
- Median price. In 2025 the median fell 2.4% from August to September, to $412,300. The same seasonal move this year would give about $419,000, still around 1.6% higher year on year. A September median below $412,300 would end the 38-month streak of annual gains.
- Inventory and months' supply. At 3.96 million sales and unchanged inventory of 1.62 million, supply stays at 4.9 months. Anything at 5.0 or above would push past August's level and strengthen buyers' hand in negotiations.
- First-time buyer share. August's 30% was up from 29% in July and 28% a year earlier. A drop would show the rate spike hitting the most rate-sensitive buyers first.
- Cash share. At 27%, cash buyers cushion the market from rates. A rising share alongside falling sales would mean financed demand is shrinking faster than the headline shows.
What would move homebuilder stocks
Homebuilders have already repriced the rate move. The iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB) closed at $92.36 on 1 September and at $84.76 on Friday 9 October, a fall of 8.2%. Lennar's September report, which cut full-year deliveries, set the tone for the group.
The link between existing-home sales and builder shares is indirect. A large resale inventory competes with new homes, and 1.62 million listings with growing price cuts limit how far builders can raise prices without more incentives such as mortgage-rate buydowns, which cost margin. A soft September resale report with rising months' supply would therefore read as negative for margins, even if it says little about orders.
The bigger driver is the rate path: the 8.2% fall in ITB since 1 September ran alongside a rise in the 10-year yield from 4.79% on 1 September to 5.22% on 8 October, or 0.43 percentage points. In analyst Ruslan Averin's view, Tuesday's release is unlikely to change the direction of ITB on its own; it is the October and November data, the first to reflect a 7.40% mortgage rate, that will show whether demand is absorbing the shock or stepping back further. For investors, the questions to carry into those reports are whether the 10-year yield stabilises near 5.2% and whether the spread between mortgage rates and Treasuries narrows from 2.18 percentage points.
Related: Lennar Q3 2026 results and guidance, the 10-year Treasury at its highest since 2007 and the Fed's 16 September decision.