Democrats won control of both the House and the Senate in the US midterm elections of Tuesday 3 November, The Associated Press called by Wednesday 4 November. US stocks still ended the week lower: the S&P 500 closed on Friday 6 November at 7,376.86, down 2.68% for the week, after a 4.4% drop on Thursday that CNBC tied to fears of a Democratic clampdown on data centres.
Financial analyst Ruslan Averin reads the week in two halves: the vote itself was taken as good news, and the damage came a day later from what the winners said about AI infrastructure. Friday's jobs report then put a December rate hike back in play.
| Close | Tue 3 Nov | Wed 4 Nov | Thu 5 Nov | Fri 6 Nov | Week |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,568.92 | 7,688.62 | 7,353.73 | 7,376.86 | −2.68% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 25,372.01 | 25,736.51 | 24,315.00 | 24,579.42 | −3.37% |
| Dow Jones | 51,786.72 | 53,356.12 | 51,523.06 | 51,285.73 | −0.94% |
| 10-year Treasury | 4.95% | 4.90% | 4.84% | 4.86% | from 4.94% |
| 2-year Treasury | 4.61% | 4.58% | 4.46% | 4.51% | from 4.56% |
| Dollar index (DXY) | 101.87 | 101.51 | 101.55 | 102.30 | +0.41% |
Closes: Yahoo Finance (ICE for the DXY); yields: US Treasury par curve. Weekly change against Friday 30 October.
What AP has called, and what is still open
"Democrats have regained control of both the U.S. Senate and House, The Associated Press has called," the AP reported on Wednesday 4 November. Democrats needed net gains of four Senate and three House seats; as of Wednesday afternoon Republicans had flipped no Democratic seat in either chamber, the AP said.
By Saturday morning, 7 November, the AP count cited by Yahoo News stood at 254 House seats for Democrats and 162 for Republicans, with 19 races still uncalled, and 54 to 44 in the Senate. Two Senate races were still uncalled:
- Mississippi: Democrat Scott Colom led Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith by 2,574 votes with 97% counted; late mail ballots count until Tuesday 10 November.
- Alaska: Democrat Mary Peltola led Senator Dan Sullivan by 637 votes with 74% counted; ranked-choice tabulation may start on 18 November.
In the House, Representative Lauren Boebert trailed by 3,172 votes in Colorado's 4th District. None of the open races can change control of either chamber.
Wednesday 4 November: the relief rally and the sector map
The first session after the vote brought the Dow's biggest gain of the year, CBS News reported. It rose 1,569.40 points, or 3%, to 53,356.12, and the S&P 500 added 1.6% to 7,688.62, the AP reported.
The AP linked several moves directly to the result:
- Health care: HCA Healthcare rose 10.3% on the view that a Democratic Congress could try to reverse some federal health-care cuts. The health-care ETF XLV gained 3.06%, according to Yahoo Finance data.
- Low-income consumers: Dollar Tree rose 9.6%.
- Defence: Lockheed Martin fell 6.9%, Northrop Grumman 4.5% and General Dynamics 2.6%.
- Energy: Brent crude fell 8.7% to $94.62 a barrel, its lowest in two months, and ExxonMobil lost 4.6% and ConocoPhillips 5.2%.
- Trump-linked stocks: Trump Media & Technology Group fell 24.5%.
The AP did not single out banks; the XLF financials ETF rose 3.51% on Wednesday and 1.15% for the week, Yahoo Finance data show.
Thursday 5 November: the data-centre scare
The S&P 500 fell 4.4% and the Nasdaq Composite 5.5%, their worst days since April 2025, and the Nasdaq closed more than 10% below its recent high, CNBC reported. All 11 S&P 500 sectors fell, and the Magnificent Seven lost more than $1 trillion in market value.
CNBC tied the sell-off to concern that Democratic wins in Congress and governors' races would slow data-centre construction. Texas Governor-elect Gina Hinojosa said in a CNN interview that "we need to stop what we are doing with data centers until we have those protections," as quoted by CNBC. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 12.25% on the day and closed the week 12.15% lower, at 9,390.25, according to Yahoo Finance data.
My reading: Congress has little direct say over data-centre permits, which are mostly a state and utility-commission matter, as LPL Research noted to CBS News. The sell-off added a political risk to a sector already weak after the Nasdaq's worst October week.
Treasuries and the dollar
The 10-year yield fell from 4.95% on Tuesday to 4.84% on Thursday and the 2-year from 4.61% to 4.46%, according to the US Treasury. The jobs report lifted both on Friday, to 4.86% and 4.51%.
The dollar index slipped 0.35% on Wednesday to 101.51, then rose 0.74% on Friday to 102.30, its highest close of the week, according to ICE data via Yahoo Finance. The election weakened the dollar a little; the payrolls beat more than reversed it.
October jobs: 165,000 against 59,000 expected
The US economy added 165,000 jobs in October and the unemployment rate was 4.1%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday 6 November. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected 59,000 jobs and a 4.2% unemployment rate, according to CNBC.
August and September were revised up by a combined 84,000, and average hourly earnings rose 0.4% in the month and 3.1% over 12 months. In July, by contrast, payrolls fell by 23,000, as covered in our July jobs report analysis. "Today's jobs report is a strong rebuttal to fears that the economy is heading into a meaningful slowdown," Seema Shah of Principal Asset Management told CNBC.
What it means for the Fed on 9 December
The Federal Reserve held its target range at 3.75–4.00% on 28 October, and Chair Kevin Warsh gave no guidance for December. The next decision is on Wednesday 9 December, at the end of the 8–9 December meeting, according to the Fed's calendar.
After the jobs data, CME FedWatch put the probability of a December hike at 76.8%, CNBC reported. A quarter-point increase would take the range to 4.00–4.25%.
I would watch two things before 9 December. First, October CPI on Tuesday 10 November is the only inflation print before the meeting, because November CPI comes out on 10 December, a day after the decision. Second, a Democratic Senate from January will vote on any future Fed nominees. Why shorter bonds have been the better place to wait is covered in our note on higher-for-longer rates.
Which of our scenarios played out
In our preview of the midterms we mapped three scenarios. The first, a Democratic House and Senate, was the one that happened, and the most likely one in prediction markets, with the Senate at 68%.
What we got right: Treasuries and the dollar moved little on the result itself, and health care, defence and energy were the sectors that moved. What we missed: health care rose on hopes of reversed spending cuts rather than drug pricing, the Senate margin beat the 52 seats Decision Desk HQ had projected, and the week's biggest move, the data-centre sell-off, was not on our map.
What it means for the hryvnia
For Ukraine, the main market channel is the dollar. The NBU set the official rate at UAH 45.3206 per dollar for Monday 9 November, against 45.3526 on 2 November. A stronger dollar usually means a cheaper euro in hryvnia; a weaker dollar works the other way. The outlook is in the dollar exchange rate forecast for Ukraine.
What to watch next
- Tuesday 10 November: US October CPI (BLS); the mail-ballot deadline in Mississippi.
- Friday 13 November: the deadline for Colorado counties to finish counting.
- Wednesday 18 November: ranked-choice tabulation in Alaska, if needed.
- Friday 4 December: the November jobs report (BLS).
- Wednesday 9 December: the Fed decision.
- Sunday 3 January 2027: the new Congress is sworn in.
Related: our midterms preview, the Nasdaq's worst week of October and why short-term bonds beat stocks while rates stay high.