Investment Capital Ukraine (ICU) has published its first forecast in which the Ukrainian economy shrinks both this year and next. In its macro review dated Wednesday 14 October, ICU sees the dollar at UAH 45.8 at the end of 2026 and UAH 49.2 at the end of 2027. It expects consumer inflation of 12.0% in December 2026 and a fall in real GDP of 0.6% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027.
Two of those numbers are often mixed up in the retelling. The 45.8 belongs to the end of 2026 and is not new: ICU kept it unchanged from June. The 49.2 belongs to the end of 2027. The 12% is a winter peak that ICU also uses as its December figure, not an average for the year.
What ICU forecasts, year by year
The table in the 14 October review gives these end-of-period figures:
- Dollar: UAH 45.8 at the end of 2026 and UAH 49.2 at the end of 2027. The annual averages are UAH 44.3 in 2026 and UAH 47.1 in 2027.
- Inflation: 12.0% in December 2026 and 8.2% in December 2027. The average for 2027 is 10.4%. ICU expects prices to peak at 12% during the winter and does not see single digits again until the third quarter of 2027.
- Real GDP: −0.6% in 2026, against +0.8% in the June forecast, and −1.9% in 2027.
- National Bank rate: ICU expects one more step of 50 basis points, to 16.5%, in October, held until the end of the first half of 2027, and 15.5% at the end of 2027.
- Reserves: $59.7 billion at the end of 2026 and $53.2 billion at the end of 2027.
The whole forecast assumes no peace agreement in the medium term and very limited Russian territorial gains.
Where the hryvnia stands on 16–17 October
The National Bank of Ukraine set the official rate for Friday 16 October at UAH 44.8871 per dollar, and the same rate applies on Saturday 17 and Sunday 18 October. For Monday 19 October it set UAH 44.8625. The record low for the hryvnia is UAH 45.0802, the official rate of 14 October. At the end of 2025 the rate was UAH 42.3878.
On Saturday 17 October Minfin's average bank cash rate was UAH 44.70 to buy and 45.19 to sell; the cash market quoted 45.00 and 45.12.
Measured from the end of 2025, ICU's 45.8 means the dollar gains about 8% in 2026; from today's official rate it is about 2% in ten weeks. The 49.2 adds another 7.4% in 2027. ICU calls this a continuation of "managed and slow devaluation", with monthly swings that rarely exceed 1.0–1.5%.
ICU against the NBU and the government
The National Bank does not publish an exchange-rate forecast. Its latest macro forecast is the July Inflation Report, published on 6 August: inflation of 10% in 2026, 6.9% at the end of 2027 and 5% in 2028; real GDP growth of 1.8% in 2026 and 2.8–3% a year in 2027–2028; international reserves of $70–74 billion in 2026–2028. September has already reached the December inflation figure: prices rose 2.1% in the month and 10.0% year on year, with core inflation at 8.8%. The NBU's next decision and updated forecast are due on Thursday 29 October.
The government's numbers sit between the two. The Budget Declaration for 2027–2029, approved in June, assumed UAH 45.8 at the end of 2026 and UAH 48.3 at the end of 2027. The draft 2027 state budget, bill No. 16000, assumes an average of UAH 47.1, real GDP growth of 1.3% and inflation of 8.0%, according to TSN's summary of the bill. The Ministry of Finance uses the rate for calculations, not as a market call.
The detail that matters for savers: ICU's 2027 average of UAH 47.1 is identical to the budget's. The gap is at the end of the year, 49.2 against 48.3, or 90 kopecks. Both see the dollar higher, not a break. The real difference is in growth and prices: ICU has the economy contracting and inflation two percentage points above the NBU's July path at the end of this year.
Why ICU turned more pessimistic
ICU calls this the hardest period since 2022, for four reasons:
- Attacks on industry and logistics. Industrial output fell 6.1% year on year in August, and construction and transport are shrinking.
- The Black Sea route. Goods exports fell 19% year on year in August, while imports rose 23%, largely weapons and components bought with the defence part of the EU's Ukraine Support Loan.
- Costs, not demand, drive prices. ICU attributes the jump in inflation almost entirely to logistics and fuel. September's 2.1% monthly rise was the largest for a September since 2015.
- Money for 2027. Partners have pledged no more than $25 billion of budget support for next year against a need of over $50 billion, so the government has to find over $25 billion more. Reserves fell 18% in the first nine months of 2026, to $47.1 billion; ICU expects at least $22 billion of budget support by the end of the year to lift them back to about $60 billion.
The last point is the exchange-rate risk. ICU warns that if the financing gap for 2028 looks unresolved, the NBU would have to speed up devaluation in the second half of 2027.
What it means for hryvnia and dollar savings
Our analysts ran the forecast against what savers earn on 16–17 October.
- Hryvnia deposit. The 12-month UIRD deposit index is 14.09%, or 10.85% after the 23% tax on interest.
- Dollar deposit. The 12-month dollar index is 1.13%, or 0.87% after tax.
- Government bonds. Military bonds maturing in September 2027 sold at weighted average yields of 15.16–15.18% in September, tax-free, and ICU notes the Ministry of Finance has not raised primary-market yields.
Take UAH 100,000. In a deposit it becomes about UAH 110,850 in a year. Converted at the bank cash rate of 45.19 into $2,212.88 and placed in dollars, it becomes $2,232.13. The two break even if the dollar is at about UAH 49.7 in October 2027. For a one-year bond at 15.17% the break-even is about UAH 51.6.
ICU's path, drawn as a straight line from 45.8 to 49.2, puts the dollar at about UAH 48.6 in October 2027. On that path the hryvnia deposit earns about 10.85% against about 8.5% for the converted dollars, and the bond about 15.2%.
Inflation changes the picture. At ICU's 12% winter peak, a deposit that pays 10.85% after tax loses about 1% in real terms. Against ICU's 8.2% for December 2027 it gains about 2.4%. In analyst Ruslan Averin's view, the forecast argues for keeping the core of hryvnia savings in instruments that pay above inflation, chiefly tax-free OVDP, and treating dollars as insurance against the scenario ICU itself describes: a 2028 financing gap that forces faster devaluation. The OVDP portfolio held by individuals reached UAH 167.5 billion on 1 October.
The cost of switching also counts. A round trip at the bank cash rates of 44.70 and 45.19 loses about 1.1%; on the cash market at 45.00 and 45.12, about 0.3%.
What to watch next
- 29 October: the NBU decision. The key rate is 16%; ICU expects 16.5%.
- The NBU's October forecast, especially whether it lifts its 10% inflation path towards ICU's 12%.
- Weekly intervention data and the official rate against the 45.08 record.
- External money: the $22 billion ICU expects by the end of the year, and the first reading of the 2027 budget.
Related: dollar rate, NBU interventions and forecasts in October, inflation at 10% and what it means for deposits and OVDP and the 2027 budget financing gap.