The National Bank of Ukraine sold almost $6 billion on the interbank market in October, a monthly record, according to NBU statistics cited by Interfax-Ukraine; in the last week of the month, 26 to 30 October, it sold $1,818.15 million, the largest weekly amount on record. On Monday 2 November the NBU set the official rate for Tuesday 3 November at UAH 45.5348 per dollar, 18 kopecks above Monday's 45.3526, as the dollar rose again on the interbank market at the start of the week.
In analyst Ruslan Averin's view, October changed how the hryvnia is managed: after four and a half months near 45, the National Bank let the rate move in the last week of October and sold more dollars than ever at the same time. The rate hike to 16.5% on Thursday 29 October bought the hryvnia two days of relief, not a new level.
The numbers on Monday 2 November
- Official rate: UAH 45.3526 per dollar for 2 November and UAH 45.5348 for 3 November, according to the NBU. The record is UAH 45.6008, set for Wednesday 28 October.
- Euro: UAH 51.0527 for 3 November, up from 50.6843 for 2 November.
- Interbank: UAH 45.56 to buy and 45.59 to sell at 15:00 Kyiv time on Monday, 23 kopecks above Friday's close, according to Minfin.
- October: the official rate rose 1.49%, from UAH 44.8624 at the end of September to 45.5293 at the end of October, NBU data show. Since the end of 2025 (UAH 42.3878) the dollar has gained 7.4%; over twelve months, from UAH 41.8924 on 3 November 2025, it has gained 8.7%.
Four records in one month
Minfin analyst Andriy Shevchyshyn counted four records in his October review, published on Sunday 1 November.
The rate. On Tuesday 27 October the interbank reached UAH 45.70–45.75 per dollar and exchange offices asked up to 46.20, the highest on record. The official rate set a new low for the hryvnia five times in October, the last at 45.6008 for 28 October, NBU Deputy Governor Yuriy Heletiy said at the 29 October briefing, as reported by Interfax-Ukraine.
The interbank gap. Businesses bought an average of $433.7 million a day and sold $245.6 million, according to Shevchyshyn. The difference, $188.1 million a day, is the largest on record and almost three times October 2025. Total interbank purchases exceeded $9.5 billion, also the largest monthly figure.
The whole market. Adding cash, where households bought $101.8 million a day and sold $58.2 million, the daily shortfall averaged $231.6 million.
Interventions. The NBU covered the gap. Interfax-Ukraine, citing NBU statistics, puts October sales at almost $6 billion; Shevchyshyn estimates more than $6 billion. The previous monthly record was $5.52 billion in September, according to Interfax-Ukraine. The four full weeks from 5 to 30 October alone add up to $5.51 billion in NBU weekly data published by Minfin.
The week of 26 to 30 October was 52.4% larger than the week before and beat the previous weekly record of $1.63 billion from the end of 2024, Ekonomichna Pravda reported, citing Interfax-Ukraine. It was the sixteenth week in a row above $1 billion. Since 5 January the NBU has sold $44.28 billion, against a net $36.06 billion in all of 2025.
Why demand outran supply
Heletiy described a structural gap rather than panic. From January to October, client demand for foreign currency rose by at least 25%, or about $16 billion, compared with a year earlier, while supply rose by only about $2 billion, he said, according to Interfax-Ukraine. Export proceeds over ten months grew to about $38 billion from $36 billion. He named higher budget spending, which lifts gross demand, and smaller currency sales by agriculture and steel.
The NBU's own measure of net non-cash demand averaged $182 million a day in October and $230 million over the last five trading days, Heletiy said. Net cash demand rose to about $38 million a day from $34 million in September.
Shevchyshyn adds the trade side: stopped steel plants and disrupted ports cut export earnings, while imports of fuel and energy equipment keep rising. The team reads this as a supply problem that interventions can bridge but not fix.
Reserves and the National Bank's line
International reserves were $47.1 billion on 1 October, about four months of future imports, the NBU said. The figure for 1 November had not been published by Monday 2 November; the NBU usually releases it in the first week of the month.
The NBU's 29 October forecast keeps reserves above $62 billion in 2026–2027. On the same day the National Bank raised its rate to 16.5%, effective 30 October, and said it expects to hold that level until the second quarter of 2027. The decision is covered in our piece on the NBU hike and the Fed and ECB holds.
The National Bank publishes no exchange-rate forecast; its Inflation Report follows on Thursday 5 November.
Forecasts for November and beyond
- Shevchyshyn (Minfin), base case, 70% probability: interbank UAH 45.10–45.95 and cash 45.50–46.50 in November. Pessimistic case, 15%: interbank up to 46.90, cash up to 47.50. Optimistic case, 15%: interbank 45.00–45.50.
- Globus Bank: chairman Serhiy Mamedov told Dengi.ua on 20 October that he expects 45.00–45.70 in November, without sharp jumps.
- ICU: in its 14 October review, UAH 45.8 at the end of 2026 and 49.2 at the end of 2027; details in the ICU forecast to 2027.
Monday's interbank rate of 45.59 already sits near the top of the Globus Bank range. Our analysts see a November range of roughly 45.3 to 46.0 as the central path, with the NBU selling heavily to keep the move gradual. Three things would push the rate above that range: a delay in partner financing, a winter spike in energy imports after new strikes, and a stronger dollar abroad after the US midterm elections on Tuesday 3 November (what markets price into the vote). The monthly view is kept up to date in the dollar to hryvnia forecast.
Hryvnia deposits, OVDP or dollars
The rates on offer at the end of October:
- Hryvnia deposit: the UIRD 12-month index was 14.29% on 30 October, or 11.00% after the 23% tax on deposit income, according to Minfin. Bank offers are tracked in deposit rates in Ukrainian banks.
- Dollar deposit: the UIRD 12-month dollar index was 1.17%, or 0.90% after tax.
- OVDP: at the 27 October auction the Ministry of Finance sold UAH 2.0 billion of bonds maturing on 15 September 2027 at a weighted average 14.94%. Bonds maturing in February 2030 went at 16.49%. Interest on OVDP is not taxed.
The breakeven arithmetic, from the official rate of 45.5348: a one-year hryvnia deposit at 11.00% net beats a dollar deposit at 0.90% unless the dollar ends the year above about UAH 50.1. A 14.94% yield, on a one-year basis, beats it unless the dollar passes about UAH 51.9. Both levels are above every forecast quoted here, including ICU's 49.2 for the end of 2027.
Inflation is the harder test. It was 10.0% in September, and the NBU now expects 12.5% in December. A net deposit return of 11.00% is about breakeven in real terms against that path; tax-free OVDP keep a margin of about 2.4 percentage points. In the team's assessment, hryvnia instruments still win for money that will be spent in hryvnia within a year, while dollars remain the hedge against a sharper devaluation and for spending priced in dollars.
What to watch next
- Tuesday 3 November: OVDP auction and the US midterm elections.
- Thursday 5 November: the NBU Inflation Report.
- First week of November: NBU reserves at 1 November and weekly intervention data for 2–6 November.
- Monday 9 November: the summary of the NBU board discussion.
- Thursday 17 December: the next NBU rate decision.
Related: the dollar and NBU interventions in mid-October, nine weeks of NBU dollar sales in September and the NBU hike to 16.5%.