Ruslan Averin — Market Analysis Journal

529 entries

A running archive of investment thinking — markets, property, capital allocation, and the occasional philosophical detour.

October 2026

32 entries

KOSPI Crash October 15, 2026: Circuit Breaker, 7.57% Drop, Samsung and SK Hynix Plunge, Seven-Day Losing Streak

KOSPI crash on 15 October 2026: index down 7.57% to 5,554.22, circuit breaker, Samsung -9.48%, SK hynix -11.06%, seve…

Markets

Oct 15·7 min read

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Will the Fed Raise Rates in October 2026? Hot CPI at 3.7%, Core at 2.6%, Hike Odds Near 40% and the Election-Eve Problem

Will the Fed raise rates in October 2026? CPI hit 3.7%, core 2.6%, and FedWatch hike odds jumped to 41.5%. The 28 Oct…

Analysis

Oct 15·7 min read

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TSMC Q3 2026 Earnings: Net Profit NT$763.1B Beats, Q4 Guidance $52.3–54.3B as Asian Chip Stocks Crash

TSMC Q3 2026 earnings: net profit NT$763.1B beat LSEG's NT$746.3B, revenue $46.72B, Q4 guidance $52.3–54.3B, 2026 gro…

Markets

Oct 15·7 min read

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Frosts in Ukraine: Heating Season Dates, Gas at UAH 7.96, Power at 4.32, Diesel Above 100 — What Winter Will Cost

Frosts in Ukraine: ground frosts to −3°C on 15 October, heating season dates, gas UAH 7.96, power 4.32, diesel above…

News

Oct 15·7 min read

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Kyiv Suburbs House Prices October 2026: Irpin +21%, Sofiivska Borshchahivka +39%, House Rents +29% Before Winter

Kyiv suburbs house prices, October 2026: median $120,000, Irpin +21%, Bucha $155,000, house rents +29%, eOselya loans…

Real Estate

Oct 15·7 min read

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Pension Indexation in Russia 2027: +6.8% in February, +3.3% in April, Average RUB 29,904 and What the Duma Passed

Pension indexation in Russia 2027: +6.8% from 1 February, +3.3% from 1 April, average RUB 29,904, pension point RUB 1…

News

Oct 15·7 min read

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Power Outage Schedules Winter 2026: What a Generator, EcoFlow Station or Home Battery Really Costs per kWh in Ukraine

Power outage schedules winter 2026: Kyiv per-building schedules, 3–8 hours in Kyiv region. Generator UAH 143/hour on…

Analysis

Oct 13·7 min read

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Winter Support of UAH 19,400 in 2026: Who Gets It, How to Apply by 30 October and What the Money Buys

Winter Support UAH 19,400 per household in frontline communities: who qualifies, where to apply in person by 30 Octob…

News

Oct 13·6 min read

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Ukraine Inflation Hits 10% in September 2026: What It Means for Deposits, OVDP, the Dollar and the NBU on 29 October

Ukraine inflation September 2026: 10.0% y/y, 2.1% m/m, core 8.8%. After 23% tax, deposits barely beat it; OVDP pay 15…

Analysis

Oct 13·7 min read

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Average Pension in Ukraine Is UAH 7,288 in October 2026: 19% Get Over UAH 10,000, New Social Assistance Law From 2027

Average pension in Ukraine on 1 October 2026: UAH 7,287.81, up 13.2%. 19.02% get over UAH 10,000, 44% under 5,000. Wh…

News

Oct 13·6 min read

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Fuel Prices in Ukraine, 15 October 2026: OKKO Diesel UAH 100.90, Autogas Up to UAH 49.90, A-95 Unchanged

Fuel prices in Ukraine on 15 October 2026: OKKO diesel +UAH 1 to 100.90, autogas to 49.90, A-95 unchanged. WOG, SOCAR…

Markets

Oct 13·7 min read

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Ukraine Freezes UAH 18bn of VAT Refunds: $27bn Still Needed by Year-End, Budget Gap and the Risk for the Hryvnia

VAT refunds frozen in Ukraine: UAH 18bn halted, UAH 46bn stuck in treasury, $27bn still due from partners. What it me…

Analysis

Oct 13·7 min read

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No UAH 5,000 Banknote: NBU on the 2,000 Note, UAH 973 Billion in Cash and Why Hyperinflation Fears Miss the Numbers

UAH 5,000 banknote: the NBU says no. 366,100 UAH 2,000 notes in circulation, UAH 973bn cash, 1,000s hold 56% of value…

News

Oct 13·6 min read

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Employee Reservation New Rules 2026: Limits Cut to 85% and 60%, UAH 25,941 Wage Threshold and the Cost for Business

Employee reservation 2026: draft cuts limits to 85% for defence and energy, 60% for utilities, changes the quota base…

News

Oct 13·6 min read

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Dollar Rate in Ukraine, 15 October 2026: NBU 44.98 After a Record 45.08, Cash 45.29, Interventions and Forecasts

Dollar rate in Ukraine on 15 October 2026: official UAH 44.98 after a record 45.08 on 14 October, cash 44.78–45.29, N…

Markets

Oct 13·7 min read

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Bank of America (BAC) Q3 2026 Results: Adjusted EPS $1.08 vs $1.10 Expected, $1.2B AML Charge, NII $16.4B

Bank of America Q3 2026 results: adjusted EPS $1.08 vs $1.10, revenue $30.0B, NII $16.4B, $1.2B AML charge. Shares fe…

Markets

Oct 13·7 min read

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Morgan Stanley (MS) Q3 2026 Results: EPS $3.03 vs $2.83–3.12 Expected, Equities $5.8B, Wealth Margin 30.4%

Morgan Stanley Q3 2026 results: EPS $3.03 vs $2.83–3.12 consensus, equities $5.8B, wealth margin 30.4%, $232B net new…

Markets

Oct 13·7 min read

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BlackRock (BLK) Q3 2026 Results: EPS $15.93 vs $14.31 Expected, $205 Billion Inflows, 11% Organic Fee Growth

BlackRock Q3 2026 results: adjusted EPS $15.93 vs $14.31 expected, revenue $7.75B, $205B net inflows, 11% organic fee…

Markets

Oct 13·7 min read

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ASML Q3 2026 Results: €11.7B Sales, 57.5% Margin, Q4 Guide €14.2–15.2B, China 23%, 2027–28 Supply Short

ASML Q3 2026 results: €11.7B sales, 57.5% margin, Q4 guide €14.2–15.2B, China 23%. Shares: Amsterdam up 1.2%, Nasdaq…

Markets

Oct 13·7 min read

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Progressive (PGR) Q3 2026 Results: EPS $4.37 vs $4.38 Expected, September Combined Ratio 90.0, Premium Growth 2%

Progressive Q3 2026 results: EPS $4.37 vs $4.38 expected, September combined ratio 90.0, premiums up only 2%. PGR fel…

Markets

Oct 13·7 min read

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US CPI September 2026: 3.7% vs 3.6% Expected, Core 2.6% — What It Means for the Fed

US CPI September 2026: 3.7% vs 3.6% expected, core 0.3% m/m and 2.6% y/y, gasoline +9.1%. S&P 500 fell 1.1%, October…

Analysis

Oct 13·6 min read

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Bank of Russia and Cash: What the Viral 'Appeal' Really Says, 38% Prefer Cash, 22.2 Trillion Rubles in Circulation

Bank of Russia cash appeal decoded: no new warning on 13 October. 38% of Russians prefer cash, 22.23T rubles in circu…

News

Oct 13·6 min read

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South Korea's Economy Under Lee Jae-myung: 3.3% Growth, KOSPI at 6,035, Average Salary 4.3 Million Won

South Korea economy under Lee Jae-myung: 3.3% growth forecast, chips at half of exports, KOSPI 6,035, average salary…

Analysis

Oct 13·7 min read

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JPMorgan (JPM) Q3 2026 Results: EPS $5.57 vs $5.93 Expected, NII Guidance Raised to $106.2B, Shares Fall

JPMorgan Q3 2026 results: EPS $5.57 vs $5.93 consensus, revenue $50.9B. NII guidance raised to ~$106.2B, IB fees $3.0…

Markets

Oct 12·7 min read

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Wells Fargo (WFC) Q3 2026 Results: EPS $1.87 vs $1.85 Expected, Revenue Miss, $50B NII Target Kept

Wells Fargo Q3 2026 results: EPS $1.87 vs $1.85, revenue $21.87B vs $22.3B, NII $12.52B, efficiency 63%, buybacks $2.…

Markets

Oct 12·7 min read

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Citigroup (C) Q3 2026 Results: EPS $2.85 vs $2.65 Expected, RoTCE 11.5%, Services Up 15%

Citigroup Q3 2026 results: EPS $2.85 vs $2.65 expected, revenue $23.8B, RoTCE 11.5%, Services +15%, $4.1B returned. W…

Markets

Oct 12·7 min read

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UnitedHealth (UNH) Q3 2026 Results: EPS $4.69 vs $4.12 Expected, MCR 88.4%, Guidance Raised to $20.50+

UnitedHealth Q3 2026 results: adjusted EPS $4.69 vs $4.12 consensus, revenue $112.7B, MCR 88.4%, 2026 guidance raised…

Markets

Oct 12·7 min read

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Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Q3 2026 Results: EPS $2.59 vs $2.53 Expected, Sales $25.4B, 2026 Guidance Raised to $11.10

Johnson & Johnson Q3 2026 results: adjusted EPS $2.59 vs $2.53, sales $25.40B in line, MedTech +2.5%, Stelara -54.4%,…

Markets

Oct 12·7 min read

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US Existing Home Sales September 2026: 3.99M vs 3.96M Expected, Median Price $417,500

Existing home sales September 2026: 3.99M vs 3.96M consensus, +1.5% m/m. Median price $417,500, up 1.3%; 4.8 months'…

Real Estate

Oct 12·7 min read

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GameStop (GME) Stock in October 2026: What Is Happening and What the Numbers Say

GameStop stock rose 48.6% in six weeks to $26.56. Record Q2 profit, Cohen buying, a 9.8% eBay stake and $32 warrants…

Markets

Oct 12·7 min read

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Russia's OFZ Push: Why the Finance Ministry Needs Retail Money as the 2026 Deficit Doubles to 7.3 Trillion Rubles

Russia OFZ bonds, October 2026: deficit of 5.19 trillion rubles in nine months, failed auctions, 10-year yield 16.85%…

Analysis

Oct 12·7 min read

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Hedgehog Instead of Churchill: Bank of England Picks Four Animals for New Banknotes. What Happens to Your Pounds

Bank of England new banknotes: hedgehog, bumblebee, barn owl and puffin replace Churchill. Are current notes valid, a…

News

Oct 12·7 min read

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September 2026

8 entries

Japan's Quiet Stock-Market Revolution: TSE Reform, Record Buybacks, BoJ at 1.25% and the Nikkei Up 31.85%

The Nikkei 225 closed at 66,364.20 on 25 Sep 2026, up 31.85% YTD, and at 69,030.92 on 9 Oct. Why TSE reform and buyba…

Markets

Sep 26·8 min read

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The 60/40 Portfolio Stopped Cushioning: 10-Year Treasury at 5.21%, Stocks and Bonds Fell Together, How I Split the 40 Now

60/40 portfolio in 2026: AOR +6.07%, but AGG −4.74% and TLT −8.86%. On 23 September stocks and bonds fell together. H…

Markets

Sep 26·8 min read

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Bali vs Phuket for Foreign Buyers in 2026: Leasehold, PT PMA or Thai Condo Freehold, and Why 10% Gross Becomes 3% Net

Bali vs Phuket property 2026: leasehold vs PT PMA vs Thai condo freehold, the May 2026 Bali crackdown, and how a 10%…

Real Estate

Sep 26·9 min read

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Oil Slides 2% as the US and Iran Explore a Path Out of War: Brent $104.32, WTI $92.41, Energy Stocks and Yields

Brent settled at $104.32 (−$2.28) and WTI at $92.41 (−$2.20) on 25 September 2026 on US–Iran talks. Daily closes 21–2…

Markets

Sep 26·7 min read

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ECB Launches Pontes: Tokenized Assets Settle in Central-Bank Money, a Digital Euro for Banks vs Dollar Stablecoins

ECB Pontes went live on 21 September 2026: 13 institutions, 4 DLT operators, tokenized trades settled in central-bank…

Markets

Sep 26·8 min read

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VOO or VTI in 2026: S&P 500 vs the Total US Market Over 25 Years, and What Non-US Investors Should Buy Instead

VOO vs VTI 2026: both 0.03%, 0.996 correlation. VOO 14.47% a year since 2010 vs VTI 14.09%. Why non-US investors shou…

Markets

Sep 26·8 min read

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Gemini Hacked Three Real Companies in a Security Test: What Google Confirmed, Why Alphabet Rose 0.64% and Who Pays

Gemini hacked three real companies in a May test and stopped each time. Google confirmed it after 7 weeks. GOOGL +0.6…

Markets

Sep 21·9 min read

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Novo Nordisk Falls 7.65% on Its Own Investor Day: 2030 Targets, the 2032 Patent Cliff and a DKK 150 Billion Promise

At its 21 Sep 2026 Capital Markets Day Novo guided growth in line with 14 pharma peers to 2030 and DKK 150bn pipeline…

Markets

Sep 21·8 min read

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40 entries